Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[AtlanticWind]

The member who made this thread has the responsability to edit the title as the system in question moves.I edited the title with the correct location.

https://i.imgur.com/2zGAwnt.gif

Thank you for editing the title, I was ill the last couple days.


This system could become a threat , hopefully will not get very strong

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to be trying to have something come together in the Bahamas in 5 days

[Nimbus]

Is that wave near 45W at low latitude supposed to do anything when it gets over warmer water?

[GCANE]

Convection expanding to the east

[cycloneye]

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Little development
of this system is anticipated during the next few days due to
strong upper-level winds while the system moves north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development after that time when system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

Let’s see when they tag this as an invest so we can get some models.

[northjaxpro]

00z Operational GFS is faster this run, showing this potential TC making landfall on the Northeast Florida coast Friday afternoon, then moving into the Northeast GOM , and traversing w/nw to the MS Coast in 168 hours (next Saturday evening)

GFS Legacy is a bit slower and stronger, showing the system traversing the NW Bahamas in 138 hours Friday night) and making landfall around Cape Canaveral in 150 hours (next Saturday morning). The TC tracks into Apalachee Bay next Saturday afternoon.

[LarryWx]

00z Operational GFS is faster this run, showing this potential TC making landfall on the Northeast Florida coast Friday afternoon, then moving into the Northeast GOM , and traversing w/nw to the MS Coast in 168 hours (next Saturday evening)

GFS Legacy is a bit slower and stronger, showing the system traversing the NW Bahamas in 138 hours Friday night) and making landfall around Cape Canaveral in 150 hours (next Saturday morning). The TC tracks into Apalachee Bay next Saturday afternoon.

1. The 0Z ICON fwiw is very similar to its 12Z run with a weak sfc low crossing NE FL on Saturday.
2. The 0Z CMC and Euro have no sfc low. However, the CDN ens has many active members, several of which lead to SE US landfalling TCs between FL and NC next weekend. This run is way more active than previous runs. However, I don't think this ensemble is all that good. In contrast, the GEFS only has weak lows from about 8 of 21 or so members that mainly cross FL next Fri-Sat.

[northjaxpro]

Good early morning to you Larry!

[northjaxpro]

00Z EURO is faster than previous run, still brings a potential TC through the Bahamas early on Friday and across Florida Friday evening and moving westward into the GOM on Saturday. EURO has it getting a bit stronger while in the GOM.late in the period.

[GCANE]

This is something I don't think I have seen before.
There was a PV Streamer hanging over this all day yesterday.
It looks like the convection took it out overnight.
An indication there is a strong updraft and a stacked vort column could develop quickly.
A rather ominous sign.

[GCANE]

Extremely fast drop in shear here.

[GCANE]

Very strong mid-level vort plainly seen on IR.
It just needs a couple vortical hot towers to drive this to the surface.
Weak surface low to the SW could easily get drawn in.
ULL to the NE to vent this rapidly once a TC forms.
This is the classic set up for genesis that most people have forgetten about.
Could catch many by surprise and go quickly.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Doesn't look like Euro initializes the 500mb vort correctly.
GFS is better but breaks it up.
The resolution of the Globals is missing this.
A couple strong VHTs and some jaws will drop.

[jlauderdal]

Doesn't look like Euro initializes the 500mb vort correctly.
GFS is better but breaks it up.
The resolution of the Globals is missing this.
A couple strong VHTs and some jaws will drop.

the ridge is locked down on the gfs so whatever develops from these systems has a clear path to the islands,Bahamas and possibly the united states..its really a very potent setup if anything develops

[northjaxpro]

Indeed, this disturbance could really ramp up quite quickly. The most important takeaway you mentioned GCANE is how the ULL to the northeast of this disturbance will really help to ventilate it..The present shear that has been over it the past couple of days is going to drop off pretty fast , and going forward, conditions look quite favorable to develop quickly.

Personally, it is a set-up that REALLY has me on edge again, given what has just happened in the Bahamas with Dorian, and the pattern in place for this current disturbance to being a real threat to not only the Bahamas God forbid, but to Florida and to the U.S. Gulf Coast going into next week potentially as well.

.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent the development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward to the north of the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico. By mid week, environmental conditions
could become more conducive for development when the disturbance
reaches the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[arekkusu]

Indeed, this disturbance could really ramp up quite quickly. The most important takeaway you mentioned GCANE is how the ULL to the northeast of this disturbance will really help to ventilate it..The present shear that has been over it the past couple of days is going to drop off pretty fast , and going forward, conditions look quite favorable to develop quickly.

Personally, it is a set-up that REALLY has me on edge again, given what has just happened in the Bahamas with Dorian, and the pattern in place for this current disturbance to being a real threat to not only the Bahamas God forbid, but to Florida and to the U.S. Gulf Coast going into next week potentially as well.

.

As a fellow Floridian, I'm gonna be watching this religiously to see how this might turn out.

[northjaxpro]

Indeed, this disturbance could really ramp up quite quickly. The most important takeaway you mentioned GCANE is how the ULL to the northeast of this disturbance will really help to ventilate it..The present shear that has been over it the past couple of days is going to drop off pretty fast , and going forward, conditions look quite favorable to develop quickly.

Personally, it is a set-up that REALLY has me on edge again, given what has just happened in the Bahamas with Dorian, and the pattern in place for this current disturbance to being a real threat to not only the Bahamas God forbid, but to Florida and to the U.S. Gulf Coast going into next week potentially as well.

.

As a fellow Floridian, I'm gonna be watching this religiously to see how this might turn out.

Hi Arekkusu, yeah, after the recent events of the past two weeks, I think we all will be closely paying attention I can rest assuredly to you about this!

[arekkusu]

Indeed, this disturbance could really ramp up quite quickly. The most important takeaway you mentioned GCANE is how the ULL to the northeast of this disturbance will really help to ventilate it..The present shear that has been over it the past couple of days is going to drop off pretty fast , and going forward, conditions look quite favorable to develop quickly.

Personally, it is a set-up that REALLY has me on edge again, given what has just happened in the Bahamas with Dorian, and the pattern in place for this current disturbance to being a real threat to not only the Bahamas God forbid, but to Florida and to the U.S. Gulf Coast going into next week potentially as well.

.

As a fellow Floridian, I'm gonna be watching this religiously to see how this might turn out.

Hi Arekkusu, yeah, after the recent events of the past two weeks, I think we all will be closely paying attention I can rest assuredly to you about this!

Yeah, we've had quite a bit of excitement these last few weeks, and it looks like the fun might be just getting started...