Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[cycloneye]

Still no mention of this wave in TWO.

[gatorcane]

00Z EC and 06Z GFS 10 day position with expansive ridging over the SE CONUS and SW Atlantic thanks to a positive NAO:

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, the positive NAO set-up in the potential scenario above is extremely un-nerving!!

[wxman57]

I don't see any wave east of 94L, but the GFS doesn't appear to be developing 94L. Look at the 850mb vorticity. The GFS has it passing 40W next Friday, while 94L is already nearing 40W. You can see the system in the 00Z GFS near the Cape Verde Islands Tuesday night. The GFS is focusing on something that is still over Africa. Euro develops something, too. I can't see anything significant there on satellite.

I don't think that the Bahamas or SE U.S. are ready for another major hurricane. Very early, though, it always comes down to timing. Maybe it'll turn out to sea. Better yet, perhaps it's only a model-cane.

[Hurricaneman]

I don't see any wave east of 94L, but the GFS doesn't appear to be developing 94L. Look at the 850mb vorticity. The GFS has it passing 40W next Friday, while 94L is already nearing 40W. You can see the system in the 00Z GFS near the Cape Verde Islands Tuesday night. The GFS is focusing on something that is still over Africa. Euro develops something, too. I can't see anything significant there on satellite.

I don't think that the Bahamas or SE U.S. are ready for another major hurricane. Very early, though, it always comes down to timing. Maybe it'll turn out to sea. Better yet, perhaps it's only a model-cane.

If in fact it’s a model-cane it’s on all models and means all the models need to be worked on but imo the signal for something to form from that area of some kind is overwhelming

[gatorcane]

Very strong signal on the GEFS but most turn out to sea though it is the super long range and it is based on the old GFS core

[ouragans]

From TWD

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 17W S of 20N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-20W.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z UKMET now also very bullish on this system.

[wxman57]

From TWD

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 17W S of 20N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-20W.

I'm not seeing anything along 17W on the TPW loop. GFS has it reaching the Cape Verde islands in 72 hrs, so it must still be over Africa.

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET now also very bullish on this system.

Do you have an image of the track and intensity?

[TheStormExpert]

Very strong signal on the GEFS but most turn out to sea though it is the super long range and it is based on the old GFS core

https://i.postimg.cc/4yvJJgMk/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-49.png

Some of those members are pretty strong, one goes down to 933mb!

Keep your fingers crossed that this recurves east of the U.S. and The Bahamas, we aren’t ready for another significant hurricane threat.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z UKMET now also very bullish on this system.

Do you have an image of the track and intensity?

Looks to be a hurricane by D7.

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET now also very bullish on this system.

Do you have an image of the track and intensity?

Looks to be a hurricane by D7.

https://i.imgur.com/bPMZkmR.png

Thanks! Wonder if it would go OTS from there?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Do you have an image of the track and intensity?

Looks to be a hurricane by D7.

https://i.imgur.com/bPMZkmR.png

Thanks! Wonder if it would go OTS from there?

Most probably, really ramps it up quick.

[SFLcane]

Quite the concentration of ensembles near PR though not sure we’re its coming from.

[Hurricaneman]

From what I can see it’s over southern Mali entering Sénégal if my eyes aren’t deceiving me

[SFLcane]

Long range GFS has this wave cut right in between Haiti and PR like Dorian. What are the odds? plenty of hurricane season left

[gatorcane]

Convection really building over Africa:

[ouragans]

From TWD

A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 17W S of 20N, moving W at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave axis from 08N-17N between 10W-20W.

I'm not seeing anything along 17W on the TPW loop. GFS has it reaching the Cape Verde islands in 72 hrs, so it must still be over Africa.

So for you it's still not the right one, shown by the models? The next over Ivory Coast?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1170714276681662469