Northwest GOM Disturbance

[GCANE]

SREF has the surface low developing in east TX and moving east.
Houston could see in excess of 4" in 24 hrs.

[Steve]

Yeah, sure enough, the latest NAM develops a 1006 mb Low Pressure system in the next24-30 hours and basically has it stationary over Galveston. Big Flood potential if this verifies.

All of our weather has been out of the SW which doesn’t happen that much in June except in strong La Niña or El Niño years when that’s the flow.

Maybe storms will fire to the west because of the approaching trough. Idk. But the sal is moving in from the SE. you can barely catch a couple frames heading from visible to geo color

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

The NAM shows this will be able to keep the SAL out and will be working within a deep pocket of moisture.

Yeah. I don't know what to think about the NAM. There's maybe a day and a half at most before the SAL gets to SELA. It was about to bust through the Yucatan Channel a few hours ago, but I think the rain will be north and west of SELA because it's just going to be too dry here. If the system fires off convection and storms tomorrow, maybe we get an inch or inch and a half. But there has to be a 3-4 day period after that where the dust will dominate and dry everything out. It can't get all the rain, but it's going to get most of it IMHO.

[Ubuntwo]

Now THIS is interesting - look at the latest euro. Some sub/tropical genesis occurring over a similar area as Dolly. The energy? Looks like it's related to this exact disturbance, now an area of vorticity between Houston and Dallas.

[GCANE]

Looks like LA coast will get the brunt of the rain over the next few days

[GCANE]

LL Vort is moving SE and is right on the coast.
Another is organizing, with convection firing, in the BoC, along the Meican coast.

[GCANE]

Classic interaction of the two mid-level vorts.
Go to CIMSS and watch how they rotate CCW around each other and then combine.
GFS is showing this more like a solid inland vort interacting with a shortwave trof to its SE.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1275797885746139143

[Steve]

I’m in north Metairie at the moment as the street I’m on is filling up. There are 2 ducks swimming in the street. Lmao. They are too far behind me to get a clear photo unfortunately.

[loon]

shear seems to be dropping with that mess in the BOC

https://imgur.com/a/c53MVXL

[TheProfessor]

Hmm wasn't expecting to get a flash flood watch with this. I'll take the rain though, needed to wash out the poor air quality we had here for a while.

[GCANE]

Convective debris from the BoC mess is firing up some heavy convection as it closes in on the surface low NW of Houston.
Seeing some major outflow boundaries from it heading into the GoM.
Watching if that'll turn some of the surface winds around.

[Steve]

Looks like maybe 4 circulations or so though I don't know at what levels. There is a spin near the AL/GA border. There's another one around Natchez, MS. There's another one in Texas with what appears to be a trough split down in deep South Texas. And another one in the Gulf. It looks like one of those random September days when everything that looked innocuous starts spinning up. I guess that usually happens when we dip into the right MJO phases and when there are passing Kelvin Waves and whatever. I haven't really checked either. But you can see the proof. Also, this is despite the insane invasion of dust which is clearly visible in the last frames of visible before turning into geocolor. Hopefully it dries everything out in a couple days, but IDK.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[GCANE]

Interesting, seeing some high-helicity towers fire offshore in the BoC near Veracruz.
They fired off from convective debris associated with afternoon popups.
What is particularly interesting is that this is coupled with a 700mb vort.
Doesn't take much for a tower to transfer that "just above boundary-layer" rotational momentum to the surface.
See what happens tonight.
Steering is due north.

[floridasun78]

not thing will come out from gulf area only rain we seen the Saharan will dry thing up in gulf soon