Tropical Wave Over the Bahamas/Cuba (Is Invest 91L)

[NDG]

GFS shows a fairly good environment in the NW GOM right before coming ashore, like I mentioned before this might be once again another TW that develops a closed circulation right on the coast.

[boca]

The wave looks like it’s 150 miles north of where the NHC has the yellow X like some pointed out in earlier texts and what if it develops earlier in the Bahamas?

[toad strangler]

The wave looks like it’s 150 miles north of where the NHC has the yellow X like some pointed out in earlier texts and what if it develops earlier in the Bahamas?

How can the NHC be that far off? I'm skeptical.

[boca]

Aric Dunn pointed that out in one of his posts and all the convection is north of their X.

[TheStormExpert]

ICON is back to a solid devlopment and about 24 hours earlier over the central gulf.

Weak sauce and it's the ICON .... but definitely something to watch. None of the models show more than a wave moving through the GOM. So far, and of course stranger things have happened.

https://i.ibb.co/XJVRpp0/icon-mslp-wind-watl-39.png

SST’s in the Gulf are the warmest in the basin so it’s definitely worth watching.

[Ubuntwo]

This is why I don't go by the shear forecast by the GFS, it exaggerates it by at least 5-10 knots if not more. It shows shear near 45 knots just north of Hispaniola when actually is analyzed near 30 knots.
Same thing it shows in the eastern Caribbean, shear near 35 knots when actually it was analyzed near 25 knots.

https://i.imgur.com/f2FkHBK.png
https://i.imgur.com/w89Lawn.gif

The two are likely using different sets of atmospheric layers. GFS' upper level winds analysis is on point with the GOES-derived CIMSS analysis. If the analysis was seriously that wrong the verification would be worthless.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic is moving
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to
move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, and then move
across the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern
Gulf on Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing
disorganized shower activity, but environmental conditions are
expected to become a little more conducive for development once the
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[vbhoutex]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic is moving
west-northwestward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to
move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, and then move
across the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern
Gulf on Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing
disorganized shower activity, but environmental conditions are
expected to become a little more conducive for development once the
system reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

We're watching this one in Texas. We need rain, which this one could produce copious amounts of, but we sure don't need a full blown tropical system!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ICON is back to a solid devlopment and about 24 hours earlier over the central gulf.

Weak sauce and it's the ICON .... but definitely something to watch. None of the models show more than a wave moving through the GOM. So far, and of course stranger things have happened.

https://i.ibb.co/XJVRpp0/icon-mslp-wind-watl-39.png

SST’s in the Gulf are the warmest in the basin so it’s definitely worth watching.

Water temps are always plenty warm enough in the gulf this time of year. There are several other much more important factors that are almost always lurking around in the gulf that keep systems from developing or weak.

[SoupBone]

Yeah the models are not gonna have a choice but to pick up on something with this. If I were a betting man, tonight might be where you start to see something more than a wave. Still too early beyond that, but we're within a 6 day window at this point. Not a whole lot of time to prepare if something were to develop.

The GFS is an odd one for sure. It shows a high bouncing around the central Gulf Coast.

[TheStormExpert]

Weak sauce and it's the ICON .... but definitely something to watch. None of the models show more than a wave moving through the GOM. So far, and of course stranger things have happened.

https://i.ibb.co/XJVRpp0/icon-mslp-wind-watl-39.png

SST’s in the Gulf are the warmest in the basin so it’s definitely worth watching.

Water temps are always plenty warm enough in the gulf this time of year. There are several other much more important factors that are almost always lurking around in the gulf that keep systems from developing or weak.

Would those two be wind shear and continental dry air?

[KatDaddy]

Yep I agree with vbhoutex. Rain yes that we need in SE TX but a tropical system no but will be watching closely once it enters the GOM. A week of watching the tropics has begun.

[Cpv17]

I’m not concerned about this one here in SETX. Doesn’t look like anything will come outta this except maybe 1-2” of rain at this time.

[SoupBone]

I’m not concerned about this one here in SETX. Doesn’t look like anything will come outta this except maybe 1-2” of rain at this time.

Why is that? There doesn't appear at this point to have much impeding development. Not suggesting anything crazy, but shear is currelty non-existent in the GoM, SST's are plenty warm, and SAL is there but doesn't look all that potent.

[wxman22]

I’m not concerned about this one here in SETX. Doesn’t look like anything will come outta this except maybe 1-2” of rain at this time.

It really just depends if it develops or not. If it stays a wave then 1-3 inches should be fairly common by the weekend. But if it develops into a tropical cyclone all bets are off when it comes to rainfall potential. Even weak tropical storms that develop at the last minute can produce copious amounts of rain here. As we saw last year with Imelda, and others from the pass.

[stormlover2013]

I say we will see a weak trop storm maybe

[Cpv17]

I’m not concerned about this one here in SETX. Doesn’t look like anything will come outta this except maybe 1-2” of rain at this time.

Why is that? There doesn't appear at this point to have much impeding development. Not suggesting anything crazy, but shear is currelty non-existent in the GoM, SST's are plenty warm, and SAL is there but doesn't look all that potent.

The reason is because none of the models show nothing but a sloppy disorganized mess coming into the TX coast. Not saying it can’t happen but I’m just saying as of now it doesn’t look likely.

[chaser1]

The wave looks like it’s 150 miles north of where the NHC has the yellow X like some pointed out in earlier texts and what if it develops earlier in the Bahamas?

There is an interesting small mid level feature around 22.5 and 70. Turning is evident but I'm guessing this will be transitory and perhaps gone in 12 hr. or so due to relative shear. On the other hand if this feature somehow remains convective while persisting well into tomorrow, then I think it'll start getting a good deal more interest from the NHC.

[NDG]

12z Euro now shows a closed weak circulation coming into TX Friday night.

[toad strangler]

Aric Dunn pointed that out in one of his posts and all the convection is north of their X.

No way NHC is 150 miles off. All due respect to Aric of course. This wave isn’t going to blossom well N of the Greater Antilles.