Disturbance in the Western GOMEX (Is Invest 90L)

[dantonlsu]

850 mb vort.

[AnnularCane]

I'm actually surprised it's still there. I figured it would get sucked into Sally at some point, even though I never saw any mention of such a possibility. It's like it's just sitting out there waiting for her to leave.

[northjaxpro]

I'm actually surprised it's still there. I figured it would get sucked into Sally at some point, even though I never saw any mention of such a possibility. It's like it's just sitting out there waiting for her to leave.

The models develop it, but basically keeps it pinned down over the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche as a very strong massive High Pressure area will build down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard durng over the next week., effectively blocking it.

[tiger_deF]

I'm actually surprised it's still there. I figured it would get sucked into Sally at some point, even though I never saw any mention of such a possibility. It's like it's just sitting out there waiting for her to leave.

The models develop it, but basically keeps it pinned down over the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche as a very strong massive High Pressure area will build down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard duti g yge next week., effectively blocking it.

That high pressure is trouble, wouldn't be suprised to see an EC landfall/major noreaster cole from this pattern we are entering

[northjaxpro]

I'm actually surprised it's still there. I figured it would get sucked into Sally at some point, even though I never saw any mention of such a possibility. It's like it's just sitting out there waiting for her to leave.

The models develop it, but basically keeps it pinned down over the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche as a very strong massive High Pressure area will build down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard during the ne.xt week., effectively blocking it.

That high pressure is trouble, wouldn't be suprised to see an EC landfall/major noreaster cole from this pattern we are entering

We will see a major nor'easter here in the Jax area beginning Friday and lastng well into next week.

[aspen]

Today, the GFS, GFS-Para, CMC, and ICON have jumped on board with development in as little as 3 days, and it could spend as much as 5 days in the western Gulf before making landfall.

[CyclonicFury]

Add the 12z UKMET to the list. These Bay of Campeche systems can be sneaky. See Katia 2017 for an example.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 21.0N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 21.0N 93.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 20.8N 95.0W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 21.6N 95.9W 1001 44
1200UTC 21.09.2020 144 22.5N 97.0W 992 47

[aspen]

Add the 12z UKMET to the list. These Bay of Campeche systems can be sneaky. See Katia 2017 for an example.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 21.0N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2020 108 21.0N 93.8W 1006 36
1200UTC 20.09.2020 120 20.8N 95.0W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2020 132 21.6N 95.9W 1001 44
1200UTC 21.09.2020 144 22.5N 97.0W 992 47

This is looking a lot like Katia, although it could have more time over water. The question is, what will it be named? This is the third AOI competing for the name Wilfred.

[SoupBone]

I'm actually surprised it's still there. I figured it would get sucked into Sally at some point, even though I never saw any mention of such a possibility. It's like it's just sitting out there waiting for her to leave.

The models develop it, but basically keeps it pinned down over the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche as a very strong massive High Pressure area will build down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard durng over the next week., effectively blocking it.

Is that what's showing at the end of the Euro run, sitting off the coast of Texas, Friday, 9/25?

[AerospaceEng]

Looks like it is, the Euro ensembles seem to bring it at least somewhat north, some off the coast of TX.

[Stormcenter]

GFS and ICON both show the feature in the
northwest GOM for next Sunday.

[Cpv17]

Well this thread will probably be taking off here fairly soon.

[SoupBone]

GFS and ICON both show the feature in the
northwest GOM for next Sunday.

Yeah but the GFS buries it in Southern Texas/Northern Mexico as pretty much nothing. Or does it re-emerge? I only see through next Sunday.

[Cpv17]

GFS and ICON both show the feature in the
northwest GOM for next Sunday.

Yeah but the GFS buries it in Southern Texas/Northern Mexico as pretty much nothing. Or does it re-emerge? I only see through next Sunday.

Latest GFS has a formidable storm down into STX.

[JayTX]

This thing traveled all the way across the gulf into Bay of Campeche now its going to back track? Good grief!

[Stormcenter]

An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extend a couple of hundred miles off the coast of northeastern
Mexico. Development of this system should be slow to occur while
the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L is up