Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[underthwx]

So Larry....we are talking roughly a couple weeks out or less for potential development?...

[SFLcane]

So Larry....we are talking roughly a couple weeks out or less for potential development?...

I can answer that for you right now Roughly 7-10 days on ensembles.

[northjaxpro]

We could be potentially looking at a very active next two weeks with Zeta and this next potential cyclone in the Caribbean. I know some of you, like I am is so weary of activity this season and are tiring of this phrase, but "this is so 2020 ", with what may transpire in the long term.

[ClarCari]

What are yall’s view on any potential precursor for this thing?

There’s currently a decently convective wave SSW of the Cabo Verde’s. I think it fits the timeframe of 7-10 days till the models start developing something but can’t know for sure.

[underthwx]

So Larry....we are talking roughly a couple weeks out or less for potential development?...

I can answer that for you right now Roughly 7-10 days on ensembles.

Thankyou!...that is to me very interesting....

[underthwx]

We could be potentially looking at a very active next two weeks with Zeta and this next potential cyclone in the Caribbean. I know some of you, like I am is so weary of activity this season and are tiring of this phrase, but "this is so 2020 ", with what may transpire in the long term.

It's a season that will be discussed and analyzed for some time to come....most importantly...for the toll it has taken on so many....it's a club nobody wants to be a member of...Harvey taught my family ànd I a valuable lesson....to be informed...never let your guard down...even when the perception may indicate otherwise...

[northjaxpro]

We could be potentially looking at a very active next two weeks with Zeta and this next potential cyclone in the Caribbean. I know some of you, like I am is so weary of activity this season and are tiring of this phrase, but "this is so 2020 ", with what may transpire in the long term.

It's a season that will be discussed and analyzed for some time to come....most importantly...for the toll it has taken on so many....it's a club nobody wants to be a member of...Harvey taught my family ànd I a valuable lesson....to be informed...never let your guard down...even when the perception may indicate otherwise...

Great post!

[underthwx]

We could be potentially looking at a very active next two weeks with Zeta and this next potential cyclone in the Caribbean. I know some of you, like I am is so weary of activity this season and are tiring of this phrase, but "this is so 2020 ", with what may transpire in the long term.

It's a season that will be discussed and analyzed for some time to come....most importantly...for the toll it has taken on so many....it's a club nobody wants to be a member of...Harvey taught my family ànd I a valuable lesson....to be informed...never let your guard down...even when the perception may indicate otherwise...

Great post!

Thankyou!

[gfsperpendicular]

This is becoming increasingly interesting, especially how some of the CMC and GFS runs show a significant slow-down or stall in the W Carib. Might be a serious Cuba threat

[Deshaunrob17]

I believe something is going to form in early November in the Caribbean based on the MJO, warm SSTs, La Nina ( November hurricanes are common in the Caribbean during La Nina years) and just the fact that this season has been continuous

However, I won't be surprised if Models drop development this week and then come back with development at the very last minute - this has been a trend this season( Euro with Isaias, Laura by most models, Zeta with GFS and so on...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ray_hawthorne/status/1320337766274781184

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1320392883254534145

[Spacecoast]

GFS 12z ... Cat1 / Cat2 through Cuba, then into Tampa.


Also, 12z ICON showing some interest, along with aforementioned CMC.

[aspen]

12z CMC is even stronger with development, while the 12z GFS takes longer for Future Eta to concentrate and the 12z ICON shows something developing at the end of its run. So far, there’s more collective model support than with Zeta.

[SconnieCane]

GFS 12z ... Cat1 / Cat2 through Cuba, then into Tampa.
https://i.ibb.co/W6vL7pv/Capture10026e.jpg

Also, 12z ICON showing some interest, along with aforementioned CMC.

Third time's the charm?

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop.

[SFLcane]

Really??!

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC

[Spacecoast]

Too early to know, but I think 3 types of tracks are possible if this forms:

1. Nov 'climo' type track over DR / Haiti, then NE
2. Cuba / Fl track
3. Nicaraugua /Guat track




*not a forecast, just a hypothesis.

[CyclonicFury]

The Euro has been atrocious with Caribbean genesis past 2-3 days this year (missing every storm), but it is showing a large area of vorticity over the SW Caribbean at hour 192.