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Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: 12z ECMWF came in less aggressive but GFS has been pretty consistent on this. I expect something to try to form especially considering it already has some curved signature as is, though I'm not confident in this given first, how hostile the MJO is and second, it's still early May, and third, wind shear is quite strong north of 15-16N.
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: 12z ECMWF came in less aggressive but GFS has been pretty consistent on this. I expect something to try to form especially considering it already has some curved signature as is, though I'm not confident in this given first, how hostile the MJO is and second, it's still early May, and third, wind shear is quite strong north of 15-16N.
Yeah I think development odds are near 50%. So I think it warrants a yellow/orange circle.
Kingarabian wrote:The EPAC could get off to a fast start. Another window is opening up for TC development over the EPAC in about 2 weeks. A moderate-strong CCKW is set to pass the Pacific in this time frame. Then in mid June we should see a active MJO pulse moving through the region as well which would also support TC development.
https://i.imgur.com/173KQMg.png
Yellow Evan wrote:I’d expect something to at least try and form in about 10-14 days and I’d say the door is at least open for up to 3 tropical cyclones in the next 30 days and there’s a non-zero chance we see a historically active May.
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:I’d expect something to at least try and form in about 10-14 days and I’d say the door is at least open for up to 3 tropical cyclones in the next 30 days and there’s a non-zero chance we see a historically active May.
A May 'cane would be interesting...obviously it would be difficult to get another Bud 2012/Amanda 2014 but even a cat 1 would be cool to see.
Kingarabian wrote:The EPAC could get off to a fast start. Another window is opening up for TC development over the EPAC in about 2 weeks. A moderate-strong CCKW is set to pass the Pacific in this time frame. Then in mid June we should see a active MJO pulse moving through the region as well which would also support TC development.
https://i.imgur.com/173KQMg.png
Category5Kaiju wrote:NHC upgraded the EPAC disturbance to 60/70%; looks like we may be seeing Andres quite soon
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