Tropical Wave in East Atlantic: (Is invest 95L)

[SoupBone]

Did the 12Z GFS just send this into the Carolinas? I can't zoom out, but on August 24th, it has something hitting the Carolinas.

It did, odd run. Looks like it tries to fujiwara around another disturbance in the Florida straits. Gfs has a bad tendency of overdoing this effect and I discount this run even more than i normally do for long range runs

Kind of why I mentioned fantasyland last night on the other thread. It had it slamming TexMex. That's a huge difference. Something to watch though for sure. This thread will blow up when it gets closer.

[Stormybajan]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/NoBm6Kj.png

Yep its go time! IMO this will track exactly where PTC6 did somewhere between Martinque and Dominica...although I believe it will be atleast a typical weak tropical storm. So just slightly better organized than PTC6

[HurricaneEnzo]

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/NoBm6Kj.png

Figured they would would have been more aggressive with the probs. This has the look of something that is close to a TD as it currently sits. Maybe they are seeing some inhibitors but didn't really go into detail. Does look like it about to be blasted with some dry air moving in from the North. Maybe that knocks this down a bit.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm guessing it won't get going fully until it gets past the islands. It's still a bit early for systems to get going fully in the MDR. That being said however, it's looking pretty good right now, and it might be able to develop before it gets there

[TallyTracker]

This one has me rather concerned. The models may not be super enthusiastic, but it has something most disturbances haven’t had yet this year…time in good conditions. The ceiling for this one is higher than the other systems so far in my opinion. Got 5-6 days before land impacts though so plenty of time to keep an eye on it.

[Spacecoast]

ECMWF ensembles show this system....
[url]https://i.ibb.co/8K4PxVw/ecmda.jpg [/url]

I have a feeling we are going to see a southward shift in those track clusters

Your feeling was accurate......

[cheezyWXguy]

Did the 12Z GFS just send this into the Carolinas? I can't zoom out, but on August 24th, it has something hitting the Carolinas.

It did, odd run. Looks like it tries to fujiwara around another disturbance in the Florida straits. Gfs has a bad tendency of overdoing this effect and I discount this run even more than i normally do for long range runs

Kind of why I mentioned fantasyland last night on the other thread. It had it slamming TexMex. That's a huge difference. Something to watch though for sure. This thread will blow up when it gets closer.

Agreed, although I think the gulf scenario is quite a bit more plausible. The relatively strong Bermuda high and periodic tendency toward a weakness over Texas has led me to think for a while now that one of these waves is bound to make it that far west while finding favorable conditions. Is it this wave? Who knows

[SoupBone]

It did, odd run. Looks like it tries to fujiwara around another disturbance in the Florida straits. Gfs has a bad tendency of overdoing this effect and I discount this run even more than i normally do for long range runs

Kind of why I mentioned fantasyland last night on the other thread. It had it slamming TexMex. That's a huge difference. Something to watch though for sure. This thread will blow up when it gets closer.

Agreed, although I think the gulf scenario is quite a bit more plausible. The relatively strong Bermuda high and periodic tendency toward a weakness over Texas has led me to think for a while now that one of these waves is bound to make it that far west while finding favorable conditions. Is it this wave? Who knows

The thing is, at least for Texas, is that it has had a pretty stout area of high pressure over it for almost 3 weeks now. Will that continue? I guess we'll see, but that's why a few of the GFS runs had it hitting TexMex and not further north.

[cycloneye]

Invest 95L is up