Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[Blown Away]

Always amazed how favorable the BOC area is for such a small area...

[zal0phus]

Worst-case I could see potential Nicholas or Odette becoming something akin to 1999's Bret, not likely of course but it's a concerning thought.

[HoustonFrog]

Any thoughts on when this will hit invest status and join the active board?

[Blinhart]

I'm thinking of something like '85 Juan, just a touch further West.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking Mindy, part II, into NE MX or South TX Monday. Rain for Texas. 60% chance NHC calls it a TD within 48 hrs and 80% beyond 48 hours (JUST beyond 48 hrs).

[SoupBone]

I'm thinking Mindy, part II, into NE MX or South TX Monday. Rain for Texas. 60% chance NHC calls it a TD within 48 hrs and 80% beyond 48 hours (JUST beyond 48 hrs).

I was coming here to comment on your lack of interest in this system.

You think rainfall amounts high and further inland like the Euro was showing or more offshore? We don't need a mini-Harvey.

[underthwx]

I'm thinking Mindy, part II, into NE MX or South TX Monday. Rain for Texas. 60% chance NHC calls it a TD within 48 hrs and 80% beyond 48 hours (JUST beyond 48 hrs).

Good morning wxman57....is this a scenario where a low forms... potentially a depression...that moves inland into NE Mexico, or South Texas...and deep tropical moisture gets pulled Northward along coastal Texas, then pushed Eastward along a frontal boundary?...

[Iceresistance]

[Nederlander]

I'm thinking Mindy, part II, into NE MX or South TX Monday. Rain for Texas. 60% chance NHC calls it a TD within 48 hrs and 80% beyond 48 hours (JUST beyond 48 hrs).

Good morning wxman57....is this a scenario where a low forms... potentially a depression...that moves inland into NE Mexico, or South Texas...and deep tropical moisture gets pulled Northward along coastal Texas, then pushed Eastward along a frontal boundary?...

Isn’t that pretty much what he said?

[Stormcenter]

Not sold on this just being another Mindy.

[xironman]

Lots of convection east of the Yucatan. Really matters where the center finally sets up. From the visible it looks like the shears is starting to relax just a bit there.

[SoupBone]

Looking at the WPC, Houston should see 7" of rain through next Friday. That's not an unmanageable amount unless it falls all at once.

[Cpv17]

Looking at the WPC, Houston should see 7" of rain through next Friday. That's not an unmanageable amount unless it falls all at once.

The WPC can be very conservative especially still being this far out.

[wxman22]

Not sold on this just being another Mindy.

I think it will depend on how close to land the storm develops, if it can stay offshore longer and not move inland into Mexico. A moderate or strong tropical storm isn't impossible given the warm waters in the western gulf. And the storm should also have more time over water than Mindy.

[underthwx]

I'm thinking Mindy, part II, into NE MX or South TX Monday. Rain for Texas. 60% chance NHC calls it a TD within 48 hrs and 80% beyond 48 hours (JUST beyond 48 hrs).

Good morning wxman57....is this a scenario where a low forms... potentially a depression...that moves inland into NE Mexico, or South Texas...and deep tropical moisture gets pulled Northward along coastal Texas, then pushed Eastward along a frontal boundary?...

Isn’t that pretty much what he said?

Ya know..you are right...I attempted to try to word it to get a better understanding of what may or may not occur...and the potential of what weather impacts may evolve from this....my bad...

[IcyTundra]

I think this could be Beta 2.0. Some areas got 10+ inches of rainfall from Beta last year so I'm expecting a lot of rain next week.

[xironman]

Strange to have recon scheduled before the invest.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 10 SEPTEMBER 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
21.5N 95.0W FOR 12/1400Z.

[Wampadawg]

I think this could be Beta 2.0. Some areas got 10+ inches of rainfall from Beta last year so I'm expecting a lot of rain next week.

Ahh Beta we were some of the chosen few caught in the bands and received about 13 inches

[wxman22]

12Z Euro

[SoupBone]

I wonder now after seeing that Euro if this will be an Allison type system, but coming from North Mexico instead of Louisiana. These model runs are slightly concerning.