Strong Tropical Wave to emerge from West Africa today (Is Invest 95L)

[toad strangler]

So what is happening with Chanthu's indirect ability to strengthen the ridge over Canada as Eric Webb pointed out?

No model has the set up down range figured out yet. There are two main ingredients here.

1. A storm
2. A possible W base ridge.

The only thing to take away from the latest Euro is yep, there’s that storm again

[Stormybajan]

Looks like another out to sea scenario (right now atleast) Hopefully this can be another ACE producer but things can change dramatically. If this wave doesnt quickly develop then as others have said its going to travel more to the west...the earlier it develops the better in my book

[toad strangler]

That’s it for the cv season. Not likely to have any Florida threats through the end of September.

Oy vey

[SFLcane]

That’s it for the cv season. Not likely to have any Florida threats through the end of September.

Good to know how reliable one single model run that only goes up to Sep 20 is in predicting the future through Sep 30.

This is why I love ensembles, not singular model runs.

Well see what the ensembles show n a bit.

[SFLcane]

Seems like the Bahamas system could become a key player in determining this system’s track, as it helps open a break in the ridge off the east coast.

The break in the ridge is well east of that. Doesn't have anything to do with the Bahamas system this run. Just not much of Atlantic ridge.

[SFLcane]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS:

[tolakram]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

It slows way down. I see plenty of escape routes, but if it was an obvious one the turn would have been made. It's fantasy land at this point.

[cycloneye]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

Yes and more slower from 216 to 240.

[toad strangler]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

Day 10ish is when the talked about SE Canadian HP would be taking hold should it verify

[aspen]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

Yes and more slower from 216 to 240.

https://i.imgur.com/scq7kfP.gif

It’s also entering much higher SSTs at this time, around 29-30C. The region just north of the GAs is an untapped powder keg and could be very concerning if this system makes it there.

[Teban54]

I wanted to post an amateur analysis just now regarding the 12z runs, but gave up after realizing I don't know exactly what's going on lol.

Anyway, the point I wanted to make is that the possible Bahamas development, which appears to provide an exit door to the low rider at 192-216 hrs, is much further east and develops later on the 12z ECMWF than GFS and CMC, both of which have it scraping the US East Coast. CMC also shows a faster Bahamas/East Coast system (long gone by 240) than Euro (still near Newfoundland at 240).

All models show the ridge building back west to some degree after the East Coast system clears out, especially at 240 hrs (even though CMC has the MDR system moving due north at that time which doesn't make sense to me). So definitely nothing is set in stone yet.

[Shell Mound]

Wait…lol

At the end of the run it stops weakening at hints of turning west.

Yes and more slower from 216 to 240.

https://i.imgur.com/scq7kfP.gif

The key is that it turns before reaching Hebert Box #1. At this point most EPS members show this system curving just east of the Leeward Islands. If the system were to remain a TS or weaker, it would likely continue farther west and impact the Leewards, but most of the EPS members show the system becoming a hurricane well to the east of the Leewards. This allows the system to feel a weakness and bypass the Leewards to the east before possibly slowing down to the north of those islands. At this point I think Bermuda is at greatest threat of a potential impact. There will be TUTTs and shortwaves passing through, and a stronger system would likely feel their influence.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational: so most will likely recurve well e of the CONUS

[Shell Mound]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

[toad strangler]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The bears aren’t eating crow this time. At this point this will likely be a westerly version of Larry, but not so far west as to impact the Caribbean/CONUS.

It’s easy to be a bear IRT the tropics.

[toad strangler]

12Z EPS day 10: further E vs 0Z EPS though S of operational: so most will likely recurve well e of the CONUS
https://i.imgur.com/SONQxsd.png

The wild card is a possible mega ridge building in around this time in SE Canada.

[cycloneye]

More north than 00z but still there are a few members pointing to the NE Leeward islands Antigua, Guadeloupe, St Marteen.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS 360: most recurve well E but this is way out there and we are in La Nina

[AutoPenalti]

That’s not really a recurve though... I don’t think it’s taking account the influence from Chutulu.