Alternate Scenarios that Could Have Turned Out Very Badly

[toad strangler]

Dorian was a total disaster for the N Bahamas in reality, but I can't imagine that 'cane advancing a bit further W and parking itself over the E Coast of FL for days.

[Shell Mound]

The area between Miami and Savannah is the only part of the Southeastern U.S. that has been largely spared hurricane-strength landfalls since 2016. Absurdly, the area with the greatest density of hurricane landfalls since 1851, peninsular Florida, has seen very few impacts during this timeframe, while the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas have seen extremely high rates of landfalls. Wilmington, Charleston, Naples, Tallahassee, Panama City, Pensacola, New Orleans, Lake Charles, and Houston have seen direct impacts. Tampa Bay, Greater Miami, and Greater Orlando are among the very few exceptions, though strong hurricanes have passed immediately to their west and east since 2016. How much longer till one or all three finally get impacted by a robust storm? Time will tell.

[Hurricanehink]

I gotta say Hurricane Sandy, if it made landfall about 70 miles north, would've caused an even worse flood in New York. Suppose the trough that turned it westward took just a bit longer to develop, and Sandy's hook west was just a bit more to the northwest. As it happened in our timeline, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, although the worst storm surge was north of the landfall point in Ocean and Middlesex Counties. I imagine that a more northerly landfall would funnel even more storm surge energy into New York Bay. It might not be that much of an increase (a foot or two), but every additional foot of water in NYC would've caused billions more in damage.

[Nuno]

Imelda was a worst case scenario IMO as well. I mean like, a nothing-storm causing billions of damage in USD? wow

I dunno if I agree. Maybe from a standpoint of emergency management in trying to get people to take a tropical storm seriously, but $5b damage is hardly eye opening given the astronomical amounts we've seen in insured losses since Katrina, especially as urban coastal areas become more dense. It shouldn't have been retired but it seems anything that makes landfall is somehow retired these days.

As for worst case? Andrew making landfall just 10 miles north. Miami would not be what it is today had that happened. I worry for the next storm because so many people have moved here since...

[Category5Kaiju]

Imelda was a worst case scenario IMO as well. I mean like, a nothing-storm causing billions of damage in USD? wow

I dunno if I agree. Maybe from a standpoint of emergency management in trying to get people to take a tropical storm seriously, but $5b damage is hardly eye opening given the astronomical amounts we've seen in insured losses since Katrina, especially as urban coastal areas become more dense. It shouldn't have been retired but it seems anything that makes landfall is somehow retired these days.

As for worst case? Andrew making landfall just 10 miles north. Miami would not be what it is today had that happened. I worry for the next storm because so many people have moved here since...

Yeah, I think in recent ages Dorian was probably the closest we ever got in terms of another major calamity for W. Florida (not exactly Miami per se, but West Palm Beach or Boca Raton would have been decimated). But in terms of a hurricane that is Andrew-like but 10 miles north.....that storm will be talked about for generations.

[SconnieCane]

Imelda was a worst case scenario IMO as well. I mean like, a nothing-storm causing billions of damage in USD? wow

I dunno if I agree. Maybe from a standpoint of emergency management in trying to get people to take a tropical storm seriously, but $5b damage is hardly eye opening given the astronomical amounts we've seen in insured losses since Katrina, especially as urban coastal areas become more dense. It shouldn't have been retired but it seems anything that makes landfall is somehow retired these days.

As for worst case? Andrew making landfall just 10 miles north. Miami would not be what it is today had that happened. I worry for the next storm because so many people have moved here since...

Imelda was not retired.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Imelda was a worst case scenario IMO as well. I mean like, a nothing-storm causing billions of damage in USD? wow

I dunno if I agree. Maybe from a standpoint of emergency management in trying to get people to take a tropical storm seriously, but $5b damage is hardly eye opening given the astronomical amounts we've seen in insured losses since Katrina, especially as urban coastal areas become more dense. It shouldn't have been retired but it seems anything that makes landfall is somehow retired these days.

As for worst case? Andrew making landfall just 10 miles north. Miami would not be what it is today had that happened. I worry for the next storm because so many people have moved here since...

Imelda was not retired.

That’s besides the point. Imelda was much worse than expected.

[SconnieCane]

I dunno if I agree. Maybe from a standpoint of emergency management in trying to get people to take a tropical storm seriously, but $5b damage is hardly eye opening given the astronomical amounts we've seen in insured losses since Katrina, especially as urban coastal areas become more dense. It shouldn't have been retired but it seems anything that makes landfall is somehow retired these days.

As for worst case? Andrew making landfall just 10 miles north. Miami would not be what it is today had that happened. I worry for the next storm because so many people have moved here since...

Imelda was not retired.

That’s besides the point. Imelda was much worse than expected.

Oh I'm not disagreeing that Imelda 2019 was very high-impact for a 40kt tropical storm, but the bolded in the post I quoted seemed to imply that the name was retired following that storm, which it was not.

[Nuno]

Imelda was not retired.

That’s besides the point. Imelda was much worse than expected.

Oh I'm not disagreeing that Imelda 2019 was very high-impact for a 40kt tropical storm, but the bolded in the post I quoted seemed to imply that the name was retired following that storm, which it was not.

I must've confused it with another storm.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Hurricane Rita would have been devastating if it maintained peak strength through landfall

Had hurricane Rita kept its peak, and followed a more northerly curve, giving NOLA and the MS Gulf Coast a double-whammy -- THAT would have been catastrophic.

[cheezyWXguy]

2003 was the first season I ever paid attention to the tropics, and I can remember the hype for Earl. If you go back and read the advisory discussions, it was expected that Earl would be a major hurricane taking aim at the northern gulf coast. However, the storm’s fast forward speed in the Caribbean caused its circulation to unexpectedly dissipate.

[skyline385]

2003 was the first season I ever paid attention to the tropics, and I can remember the hype for Earl. If you go back and read the advisory discussions, it was expected that Earl would be a major hurricane taking aim at the northern gulf coast. However, the storm’s fast forward speed in the Caribbean caused its circulation to unexpectedly dissipate.

Err there wasn't an Earl in 2003?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

2003 was the first season I ever paid attention to the tropics, and I can remember the hype for Earl. If you go back and read the advisory discussions, it was expected that Earl would be a major hurricane taking aim at the northern gulf coast. However, the storm’s fast forward speed in the Caribbean caused its circulation to unexpectedly dissipate.

Err there wasn't an Earl in 2003?

They probably meant '04.

Initial forecasts from the National Hurricane Center depicted gradual intensification into a powerful hurricane as the system entered the central Caribbean Sea, but these forecasts were lowered in later advisories. Despite an impressive satellite presentation associated with Earl as it passed through the southern Leeward Islands, a hurricane hunter flight reported that the system no longer had a low-level circulation late on August 15. As a result, the NHC discontinued advisories on the system and declared it an open tropical wave. While not entirely sure, it is suspected that the fast motion of the cyclone attributed to its dissipation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2004)

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep sorry, typo

[skyline385]

2003 was the first season I ever paid attention to the tropics, and I can remember the hype for Earl. If you go back and read the advisory discussions, it was expected that Earl would be a major hurricane taking aim at the northern gulf coast. However, the storm’s fast forward speed in the Caribbean caused its circulation to unexpectedly dissipate.

Err there wasn't an Earl in 2003?

They probably meant '04.

Initial forecasts from the National Hurricane Center depicted gradual intensification into a powerful hurricane as the system entered the central Caribbean Sea, but these forecasts were lowered in later advisories. Despite an impressive satellite presentation associated with Earl as it passed through the southern Leeward Islands, a hurricane hunter flight reported that the system no longer had a low-level circulation late on August 15. As a result, the NHC discontinued advisories on the system and declared it an open tropical wave. While not entirely sure, it is suspected that the fast motion of the cyclone attributed to its dissipation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2004)

Yea, I initially did think it was a reference to the 2004 storm but then it was so short lived that I found it hard to believe that it was hyped to be a major hitting the Northern Gulf. I wasn't into tropical weather back then but damn it must have been one of the biggest busts from the NHC if they had it as a major in the official forecast and it fizzled out as a tropical storm.

[dexterlabio]

Imagine if Katrina, Rita, and Ike underwent EWRCs and they all turned out to be successful, akin to Haiyan or Irma-type eyewall "meld," and they made landfall at peak strength.


Also imagine if environmental conditions were a lot more conducive at the time of Irene (2011) and managed to strike NY as a borderline Cat2/3 hurricane.

[Teban54]

Err there wasn't an Earl in 2003?

They probably meant '04.

Initial forecasts from the National Hurricane Center depicted gradual intensification into a powerful hurricane as the system entered the central Caribbean Sea, but these forecasts were lowered in later advisories. Despite an impressive satellite presentation associated with Earl as it passed through the southern Leeward Islands, a hurricane hunter flight reported that the system no longer had a low-level circulation late on August 15. As a result, the NHC discontinued advisories on the system and declared it an open tropical wave. While not entirely sure, it is suspected that the fast motion of the cyclone attributed to its dissipation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2004)

Yea, I initially did think it was a reference to the 2004 storm but then it was so short lived that I found it hard to believe that it was hyped to be a major hitting the Northern Gulf. I wasn't into tropical weather back then but damn it must have been one of the biggest busts from the NHC if they had it as a major in the official forecast and it fizzled out as a tropical wave.

Earl '04 wasn't explicitly forecast to be a major at any time, but Advisory #7 and Advisory #8 did have 90 kt in central Gulf, and most advisories before that had 80 kt at 120 hrs. This was right after Charley overperformed big time, so I can see how people were concerned.

[FireRat]

The 1996 season could've been incredibly devastating, far more than it actually was, if the tracks of Bertha/Edouard/Fran/Hortense had been further west and a little south before recurving. Those 4 majors had their tracks basically intersect over the same section of Atlantic just east of the Bahamas.

That season could've been bad for FL and the Bahamas, like really bad. The Carolinas would've still been whacked pretty hard, and perhaps even the greater antilles would've taken a beating. There were 6 Majors that year, six!

[Ptarmigan]

I remember Hurricane Isidore was forecasted to hit New Orleans area as a Category 4 hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/d ... s.027.html

[DestinHurricane]

I'm sure this has already been said, but dorian stalling and turning 60-70 miles west at the same intensity. Imagine 185mph into PBC then a stall over the area.

Though I have another that may not be as thought of:

The trough being later and Michael not making that final curve back to the NE. Would've made landfall around Destin. Where the RFQ of Michael actually made landfall was mostly trees, with the exception of the corner of Mexico Beach. Now imagine what happened in Mexico beach from the Sandestin area all the way through seaside or so. Destin proper would have been hammered as well with wind and some surge. Those areas even away from the coast are far more populated than where Tyndall AFB is located. Then Fort Walton gets basically what Panama City got.