Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico and Northwest Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea by the
middle of the week. Some gradual development is possible
thereafter while the system drifts generally eastward or
northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[wxman57]

Most likely, I think we'll see a weak, highly-sheared low track across the FL Straits through the Bahamas next weekend. The NHC could name it if recon finds any 35kt wind in squalls to its east, but it will not be a wind threat over land. Rain for south Florida next weekend.

[boca]

If the system goes thru the straits then we probably won’t get even rain out of it because everything will be on the right side of the system and will be on the dry side.

[ronjon]

Latest Euro shows a weaker and very broad low sorta meandering east-NE in the SE GOM eventually reaching SW Florida in 9-10 days. GFS meanwhile wants to rapidly develop the low from this broad sloppy gyre in the NW Caribbean and scoot it rapidly through the straits. CMC sorta of a mix of the two while ICON more rapidly develops it and moves it NE toward the big bend of Florida. Gonna be a while longer till the models sort this one out. I do think the models that rapidly develop it are overdoing it in light of the shear forecasts.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Love how the formation area is shifting E with each passing TWO lol. Models are starting to swing that way though so it makes sense.

[AnnularCane]

Kind of like The Blob. lol

[skyline385]

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/hankd_wx/status/1530932137989443590

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun May 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Yucatan Peninsula and Northwest Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form near the Yucatan
Peninsula or the northwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of
the week. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter while it drifts generally eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[zzh]

12Z euro

[skyline385]

Think GFS is the only one not showing a FL hit at the moment

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z EPS came in with more members than 00z.

[SFLcane]

[Cpv17]

This should be a really nice rainmaker for you guys in south FL. I’m quite jealous

[CFLHurricane]

https://i.postimg.cc/cJs31BxJ/3311-E1-AB-BAE4-4-CED-9-F2-A-ACB594-B95-CDA.gif

We could really use this rain in my section of the Space Coast which has magically dodged every drop of rain for weeks.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1531043885153140736

[SFLcane]

Some local spots near a foot of rainfall across South Florida.

[jlauderdal]

This should be a really nice rainmaker for you guys in south FL. I’m quite jealous

We had 2+ this afternoon, jealous?

[toad strangler]

This should be a really nice rainmaker for you guys in south FL. I’m quite jealous

We had 2+ this afternoon, jealous?

Our wet season has kicked off.

[tolakram]

Still a little too far out to be comfortable with where this will go but the GFS has been much more accurate with storm track in this area during this time of year.