Possible Development Near the Central Gulf Coast

[Tailgater33]

:spam:

We need this here in Texas in the worst way. I’ve only had 8.75” here the entire year. Last year at this time I was already nearing 35”. This is the driest it’s been here since 2011.

18z GFS is getting closer to us. We need it to keep moving the rain west.

GFS seems to be shifting our way but the way this drought has been,we may just get teased

Hoping it shimmy’s to the west into parch Texas but be wary of these weak slow moving systems. 2016 and 40 inches of rain falling from an unnamed system comes to mind.

[cycloneye]

The TWO didn't mentioned TD but NHC twitter does.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1546275707252117504

NHC deleited that first tweet and fixed the wording.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1546299144498601984

[Stormcenter]

I think they let the cat out that bag a little too early as to what they honestly believe will happen and back tracked......too late.

The TWO didn't mentioned TD but NHC twitter does.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1546275707252117504

NHC deleited that first twit and fixed the wording.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1546299144498601984

[Gums]

Salute!

THNX, Stormcenter. I agree. Many "wannabe storms" form this time of year in the Gulf. Shear and last few spring fronts thwart them.

Of course, we could use some of the rain on the Coast, but not too much.

Gum sends..

[skyline385]

Eastwards shift from ICON, meanwhile GFS is struggling to develop it

[captainbarbossa19]

Eastwards shift from ICON, meanwhile GFS is struggling to develop it

https://i.imgur.com/7RKbffE.png

The GFS has the heaviest rain now just off the coast of Louisiana and Texas. I'm wondering if we're about to have another Debby 2012 type of forecast.

[KimmieLa]

:spam:

18z GFS is getting closer to us. We need it to keep moving the rain west.

GFS seems to be shifting our way but the way this drought has been,we may just get teased

Hoping it shimmy’s to the west into parch Texas but be wary of these weak slow moving systems. 2016 and 40 inches of rain falling from an unnamed system comes to mind.

I remember it well. Living in BTR in 2016 and lost just about everything in our home. So, yeah, these no named storms are a royal pain. If I remember correctly, they predicted the heavy rains would stay to our east, however, one huge rain cloud hung over southeast La. for 3 days. It just never stopped raining, and we kept getting those areal alerts on our phones. So, stay alert and take these storms seriously. You just never know when Mother Nature might set up shop nearby.

[SoupBone]

Eastwards shift from ICON, meanwhile GFS is struggling to develop it

https://i.imgur.com/7RKbffE.png

The GFS has the heaviest rain now just off the coast of Louisiana and Texas. I'm wondering if we're about to have another Debby 2012 type of forecast.

We need some damn rain. Tonight was a slap in the face. But not 30".

[N2FSU]

6z GFS coming in more organized


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ChrisH-UK]

The environment at about 150+ hours looks to be a low shear in both GFS and ECWMF. Now the GFS does show it up in the vortices at 700mb and 500mb with the 850mb been less distinct over the Florida panhandle in land. As for potential it seem it would be based on far south it would go over the water of the gulf.

However I have noticed something else which is a circulation on GFS that drops off over Houston and moves to New Orleans in the next 2 days. and this is what the NAM see's

[wxman57]

Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.

[Dean4Storms]

Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.

Hmmm, the NWS Tallahassee AFD this morning mentions a wave of low pressure expected to form later today out over the northern Gulf and radar trend from Eglin appears to be showing some form of a wave developing this morning south of PC.

"NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A frontal boundary draped across the Deep South is serving as focus
for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along the coast and
offshore this morning where SPC Mesoanalysis depicts Precipitable
Water (PW) in the 2-2.1" range. A wave of low pressure appears to
then develop along the northern Gulf later today, which should nudge
the front northward while advecting tropical moisture (2.2"+ PWs)
inland. This feature will act to force widespread convection over
the Tri-state area during through the near-term period. The richly
moist and moderately unstable airmass is supportive of heavy
rainfall and subsequent isolated to scattered flood threat. Slow
moving, training, and backbuilding storms pose the biggest flooding
concerns. Gusty winds are a secondary threat."

[tropicwatch]

Been noticing the contours of a low around Panama City on radar the past day or so. Don't know if it will make it offshore or just hug the coast.

[wxman57]

Models are backing off on any offshore low development. Regardless, this would not be a wind threat, just some rain from SE LA to the western FL Peninsula Wed-Sat. Could use some of that here, but I did wake up to a thunderstorm that dropped 0.38" of rain in SW Houston.

Hmmm, the NWS Tallahassee AFD this morning mentions a wave of low pressure expected to form later today out over the northern Gulf and radar trend from Eglin appears to be showing some form of a wave developing this morning south of PC.

"NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A frontal boundary draped across the Deep South is serving as focus
for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly along the coast and
offshore this morning where SPC Mesoanalysis depicts Precipitable
Water (PW) in the 2-2.1" range. A wave of low pressure appears to
then develop along the northern Gulf later today, which should nudge
the front northward while advecting tropical moisture (2.2"+ PWs)
inland. This feature will act to force widespread convection over
the Tri-state area during through the near-term period. The richly
moist and moderately unstable airmass is supportive of heavy
rainfall and subsequent isolated to scattered flood threat. Slow
moving, training, and backbuilding storms pose the biggest flooding
concerns. Gusty winds are a secondary threat."

Little doubt that a weak low pressure area will form, but the models are backing away from a TS scenario. Doesn't matter what it gets classified as, it will be only a rain producer.

[Nimbus]

Currently there is a little shear out of the Northeast from that upper level low over Cuba.
The models aren't calling for a well focused low level center until mid week if at all, but the shear would have to abate before we saw a tropical storm.

[Wampadawg]

This thing is like playing roulette,5 dollars on 1 inch of rain for the Houston area please

[Steve]

12z models are starting to roll in.

NAM12km - forms at the coast, brings up in to Terrebonne/Lafourche/Jefferson Parishes.

ICON - forms off the LA Coast, drops down and moves toward the NE Gulf and brings in an intensifying system (995mb it looks like) into Franklin/Wakulla Counties just east of Apalachicola.

GFS - Brings the energy inland before it can form. It's only out to 120h on TT, so it's possible there's something left behind to work with. But the curved low clearly goes in SELA and moves north/northeast.

RGEM (mesoscale also) forms a low just off the LA Coast and wants to move it westward slowly along the coast.

Not much consistency with the evolution which will be the case probably until we have a low down there.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at Radar, it appears that the low might set up south of the Panam City, Port St. Joe area. There is also some 925mb and 850mb vorticity in that area.

[Stormcenter]

Thanks Steve, it should make for an interesting week
storm tracking wise with so much unknown assuming
something does develop.

12z models are starting to roll in.

NAM12km - forms at the coast, brings up in to Terrebonne/Lafourche/Jefferson Parishes.

ICON - forms off the LA Coast, drops down and moves toward the NE Gulf and brings in an intensifying system (995mb it looks like) into Franklin/Wakulla Counties just east of Apalachicola.

GFS - Brings the energy inland before it can form. It's only out to 120h on TT, so it's possible there's something left behind to work with. But the curved low clearly goes in SELA and moves north/northeast.

RGEM (mesoscale also) forms a low just off the LA Coast and wants to move it westward slowly along the coast.

Not much consistency with the evolution which will be the case probably until we have a low down there.

[MississippiWx]

GFS and NAM try to spin up a low starting later today SE of the Louisiana coastline. It moves inland back into SE Louisiana in a couple of days, possibly as a tropical depression. GFS ensembles are jumping on this possible low too, but not much else supporting this for now. Will be interesting to watch as a lot of thunderstorm activity is happening in this area now.