Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Cpv17]

The GEFS is sure going to be interesting!!

[hurricane2025]

Could be a rita/ike type track longs way out

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS has it in for Pensacola... Obviously the GFS had to have dropped the idea of such a significant trough coming down for it to make it that far west. Last run took it through the Bahamas and out to sea.

[Spacecoast]

Some support from Euro ensembles..
12z:

0z:

[cycloneye]

Inland.

[KWT]

Its been on and off on the GFS for the last 6-8 suites now, but we've seen literally nothing much on the other models other than the ICON. Until we see stronger model support I'm not expecting too much to come of this system, though it does need to be said this is exactly the type of system that does need to be watched now we are entering peak climo.

It has ensemble support from the Euro as well. It’s not just the GFS and ICON.

I went through every single ECM ensemble member and scouted out the runs that had 1 closed isobar low pressure that can be clearly traced back to this wave. I counted 14 such runs on the 00z ensembles. 14 out of 51, so about 25% chance at the moment. There were probably another 2-3 which were very hard to trace back but may well have been trigged by this wave as well but didn't form till much later on (up the eastern seaboard).

What needs to be watched to see if the numbers start to grow, that would then suggest a trend towards it being more possible.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC is showing a broad circulation, albeit weak, that can be tracked straight west into Central America. Once it reaches the EPAC it seems to try and spin up something more there.

[SFLcane]

Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.

ICON has been spot on with this system.

The ICON is not a reliable model. For some reason the GFS has been too bullish on genesis this season. Maybe it is bad input into the model. Chances are there will be no genesis in the Eastern Caribbean like the GFS shows. It is a hostile area to begin with.

No, the caribbean is not hostile right now its away from the tutt influence and wave breaking.

[NDG]

Just need some more support from ensembles


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Does any other reliable model besides the GFS show development? Looks like an outlier right now.

ICON has been spot on with this system.

Last night's Euro also showed support for development of this TW but not until it got to the western Caribbean.

[SoupBone]

Could be a rita/ike type track longs way out

There's nothing in this GFS run, nor the ensembles to suggest this.

[AtlanticWind]

I am a few hours late to the party, I just saw the 12z GFS run

All I can say is... What the H**L.

[hurricane2025]

Could be a rita/ike type track longs way out

There's nothing in this GFS run, nor the ensembles to suggest this.

Of course not nothing has developed and it’s 12 days out, I’m talking about the track by cuba and etc

[SoupBone]

Could be a rita/ike type track longs way out

There's nothing in this GFS run, nor the ensembles to suggest this.

Of course not nothing has developed and it’s 12 days out, I’m talking about the track by cuba and etc

With that line of thinking, you could name just about every single gulf coast hurricane then.

[KWT]

I am a few hours late to the party, I just saw the 12z GFS run

All I can say is... What the H**L.

Luckily the GFS has been rather inconstant with this, more runs than not it does end up forming but we've seen it form way off the eastern seaboard, and a couple of times in the Caribbean, and then sometimes nothing forms at all.

If I was a betting man I think it might form weakly but then strengthen into a recurve type pattern, perhaps a side sweep of the E/NE coast because curving out to sea?

However just as much chance that nothing comes of it as well.

[NDG]

Both the 12z GFS and 06z Euro show a fairly good UL environment as it enters the eastern Caribbean, the Euro not as moist of an environment but trending to a more moist environment, it could tap into some deep moisture from S America.

[hurricane2025]

There's nothing in this GFS run, nor the ensembles to suggest this.

Of course not nothing has developed and it’s 12 days out, I’m talking about the track by cuba and etc

Then name them
With that line of thinking, you could name just about every single gulf coast hurricane then.

[Tailgater33]

0z GFS really deepening the South American system on this run. Will be interesting to see it’s progression. Close to 999mb in 4 days

Not trying to single you out, many others have described it as the SA cold system. But looking at visible loops we already have a very weak dried up spin in this area now, do y’all think this is what some the models are picking up on?

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please, thanks.

[SouthFLTropics]

If you want to watch some good weather model stuff, I suggest tuning in to the 12z GFS. Me thinks it is going to have some fun with our player from South America. At least it is looking that way so far.

I had a feeling about that run of the GFS, but sheesh. Didn't expect 945MB in the GOM. Ensembles are rolling right now but seem to be lagging a bit. I'm sure that traffic to Tropical Tidbits has increased after that 12z GFS.

[Spacecoast]

FSU Genesis @ 36%....