Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1567525552591888385

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1567525552591888385?s=20&t=XMnl7c0M5SA2EwLGjUWoWA

Very interesting indeed.

[cycloneye]

Nothing develops that quick in 2022 gfs is bluff.

You were 100% right.

[LarryWx]

For the first time in seven runs, the 12Z UKMET doesn't make this a TC! Keep in mind that the UKMET was the first model to develop this into a TD. Is it now saying "psyche"?

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1567525552591888385?s=20&t=XMnl7c0M5SA2EwLGjUWoWA

Very interesting indeed.

But there is no TC lol.

[AutoPenalti]

Dry air dominates the region again.

[chris_fit]

12z gfs drops it

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1567525552591888385?s=20&t=XMnl7c0M5SA2EwLGjUWoWA

Very interesting indeed.

But there is no TC lol.

You've got to love the tropics!

Not surprisingly, the 12Z GEFS is following the operational's lead with a weaker and further south mean.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC still has only a weak surface reflection. It is just NE of PR at 240 moving WNW in what's technically a dangerous position. But a very weak low wouldn't be particularly dangerous fortunately.

[cycloneye]

2. African Coast:
A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast is
forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next
day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
gradual development thereafter as the system moves
west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[aspen]

This might end up as another Earl, struggling for much of its time in the MDR before developing west of 55-60W. Or it’ll surprise all the models and develop while it’s still below 15N during the next few days. This is one of the furthest south and smallest waves this season, so it could be spared from the problems other waves have faced this year with dry air and competing centers.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS has ~30% of the members become a H. A handful of them threaten the Leewards to Bermuda corridor 9/19-22. Two of them hit near the NC/SC border 9/20-22. All fwiw.

[cycloneye]

[LarryWx]

0Z ICON illustrates well the danger of this becoming a weak surface low but also remaining weak and thus less likely to recurve safely. This has it still weak at 19N, 58W, moving W toward the far NE Caribbean with no trough looking to recurve it out anytime soon after and with it moving toward very warm SSTs.

[LarryWx]

After just one run without it, it is back on the 0Z UKMET though it is more delayed than ever:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.0N 46.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2022 132 19.7N 48.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 14.09.2022 144 20.8N 50.5W 1009 29

Edit: The 0Z Euro's very early recurve is a clearcut outlier to the 0Z EPS as only two others of the other 50 members are anywhere near as far north.

[Blown Away]

0Z ICON illustrates well the danger of this becoming a weak surface low but also remaining weak and thus less likely to recurve safely. This has it still weak at 19N, 58W, moving W toward the far NE Caribbean with no trough looking to recurve it out anytime soon after and with it moving toward very warm SSTs.

Long range modeling at times has shown this "blocking ridge" that many tweet about that allows systems farther W, but once the modeling gets within 10 days they all recurve OTS. Bermuda being the exception, IMO the only way this season a TS/Hurricane impacts any landmass will be if one develops in the Caribbean or GOM.
Back in June/July the CFS was all over the place, but it did somewhat correctly show nearly all the lows in the Atlantic moving N and not impacting Caribbean/CONUS.

[cycloneye]

2. West Coast of Africa:
A tropical wave currently located near the west coast of Africa is
forecast to emerge into the eastern Atlantic later this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.9N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2022 96 14.9N 43.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 13.09.2022 108 16.8N 46.0W 1008 31
1200UTC 13.09.2022 120 18.4N 48.8W 1007 38
0000UTC 14.09.2022 132 18.9N 51.1W 1007 33
1200UTC 14.09.2022 144 19.3N 53.9W 1006 39

[SFLcane]

Icon develops this wave and brings it west until the trap door opens. Pattern is way to progressive for anything to make it far west before these trofs weaken the ridge.

[cajungal]

Icon develops this wave and brings it west until the trap door opens. Pattern is way to progressive for anything to make it far west before these trofs weaken the ridge.

https://i.postimg.cc/L6ZSL4j6/icon.png

What is that in the gulf? Don’t remember anyone mentioning it