Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

06z GFS is super aggressive. It develops this right as it reaches the Caribbean in just 4 days, then blows up into a major once it reaches the WCar roughly another 4 days later.

[kevin]

The GFS WCar season has started , luckily it's +264. Genesis is already at +66 though, I think we'll have a new lemon soon. Like in most seasons, GFS is not a fan of Cuba and Florida.

[SFLcane]

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro...Solid model support



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[kevin]

, luckily this part of the run is still in fantasy range.

[BobHarlem]

Edit: Duplicated this in the 43w wave thread.

The 6z GFS is showing this developing around Barbados on Thursday, Then gets to the west Caribbean, crosses Cuba and enters S. Florida via Marathon Key, and out around Vero Beach, then continues up, may also get NC as well.

Here it is near Barbados (Fiona still very visible here also)


When it gets to Florida. (Enters via Keys)


The GFS will probably be enough for a mention in the outlook at least.

[toad strangler]

Too far out for googly eyes

[BobHarlem]

The 6z GFS is showing this developing around Barbados on Thursday, Then gets to the west Caribbean, crosses Cuba (929MB!) and enters S. Florida via Marathon Key, and out around Vero Beach, then continues up, may also get NC as well.

Here it is near Barbados (Fiona still very visible here also)


When it gets to Florida. (Enters via Keys)


The GFS will probably be enough for a mention in the outlook at least.

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

The wave was on 0Z ICON and CMC as well. It is most definitely getting assigned a lemon soon if this continues.



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[BobHarlem]

No mention of this on the 8am two.

[Category5Kaiju]

I personally have doubts that this system is a ghost storm the GFS is brewing up unlike the plethora of times it did so this season so far. The simple reason is because of where it originates: the tropical wave develops in the ECAR, as opposed to appearing out of thin air in the WCAR.

If there's a way the GFS's WCAR bias could be alleviated so it doesn't brew up storms in the WCAR during May or June, then that would be ideal

[toad strangler]

I personally have doubts that this system is a ghost storm the GFS is brewing up unlike the plethora of times it did so this season so far. The simple reason is because of where it originates: the tropical wave develops in the ECAR, as opposed to appearing out of thin air in the WCAR.

If there's a way the GFS's WCAR bias could be alleviated so it doesn't brew up storms in the WCAR during May or June, then that would be ideal

Well the suspect energy has other global model support so that is our first clue it may not just be GFS bias.

[SFLcane]

I will say this South Florida Playing with fire with trof pattern in place.

[SFLcane]

I personally have doubts that this system is a ghost storm the GFS is brewing up unlike the plethora of times it did so this season so far. The simple reason is because of where it originates: the tropical wave develops in the ECAR, as opposed to appearing out of thin air in the WCAR.

If there's a way the GFS's WCAR bias could be alleviated so it doesn't brew up storms in the WCAR during May or June, then that would be ideal

Model support certainly there for now I don’t think this ghost trickery being played by the gfs lol. If things hold in the modeling I can’t see this not being mentioned during the next 1-2 days by the nhc.

[kevin]

Some random shower thoughts, but I just found out that since records began there has never been a hurricane season which subsequently had this escalating sequence of storms: TS-C1-C2-C3-C4-C5. The two seasons that got pretty close were 2017 with TS-C1-C2-C4-C5 (Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma) and 1955 with TS-C2-C1-C4-C3-C5 (Five, Flora, Gladys, Iona, Hilda, Janet), so 1955 had the correct storms just not in the right order. So far we have TS-C1-C2 this year with Colin, Danielle, Earl. If Fiona peaks as a C3 and this wave really becomes a C4 like 06z GFS just showed than we're only 1 removed from this sequence. Not that I think it's worth it to get 3 more potentially dangerous MHs just to complete my imaginary sequence. Okay back to serious discussion .

[tolakram]

Some random shower thoughts, but I just found out that since records began there has never been a hurricane season which subsequently had this escalating sequence of storms: TS-C1-C2-C3-C4-C5. The two seasons that got pretty close were 2017 with TS-C1-C2-C4-C5 (Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma) and 1955 with TS-C2-C1-C4-C3-C5 (Five, Flora, Gladys, Iona, Hilda, Janet), so 1955 had the correct storms just not in the right order. So far we have TS-C1-C2 this year with Colin, Danielle, Earl. If Fiona peaks as a C3 and this wave really becomes a C4 like 06z GFS just showed than we're only 1 removed from this sequence. Not that I think it's worth it to get 3 more potentially dangerous MHs just to complete my imaginary sequence. Okay back to serious discussion .

Would that mean this season hits for the cycle? Seems like we have enough model support for at least a TS in the western Caribbean.

[Category5Kaiju]

Some random shower thoughts, but I just found out that since records began there has never been a hurricane season which subsequently had this escalating sequence of storms: TS-C1-C2-C3-C4-C5. The two seasons that got pretty close were 2017 with TS-C1-C2-C4-C5 (Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma) and 1955 with TS-C2-C1-C4-C3-C5 (Five, Flora, Gladys, Iona, Hilda, Janet), so 1955 had the correct storms just not in the right order. So far we have TS-C1-C2 this year with Colin, Danielle, Earl. If Fiona peaks as a C3 and this wave really becomes a C4 like 06z GFS just showed than we're only 1 removed from this sequence. Not that I think it's worth it to get 3 more potentially dangerous MHs just to complete my imaginary sequence. Okay back to serious discussion .

That last GFS run peaked as a 926 mbar system, which could be a Cat 4 (likely very high end, like 150 or 155 mph), or it could even be a Cat 5 (likely low end, like 160 or 165 mph). Either way, future Gaston (or Hermine assuming a surprise system in between) may really be one to watch down the line.

I think the rather big concern I have with this system is that it will be going over virtually untapped, warm waters, and it will basically be a test to see if the theory that having zero named systems active in that region of the Atlantic since early July could actually be bad later in the year. Not to mention it will be entering a climo-favorable region, with a track that endangers multiple landmasses, including Florida.

[cane5]

I will say this South Florida Playing with fire with trof pattern in place.

How long do you see that holding ????