Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 95L)

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro ensemble is its most active run yet at Lesser Antilles ~July 1st

[jlauderdal]

12z EC on board now.

Blowing through the graveyard on its way to a second landfall. Lets see how that pans out in future cycles.

[zzzh]

Hmm, Euro has it strengthening in westerly shear, doesn't look realistic to me.

[LarryWx]

TW SW of CV: After Lesser Antilles 12Z Euro ensemble tracks most concentrated toward Cuba to Nicaragua corridor followed by good number hitting MX/TX/W LA while minority threaten PR to SE US with only very few recurving offshore the E US coast

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/AbYZCRe.png
Hmm, Euro has it strengthening in westerly shear, doesn't look realistic to me.

Unrealistic is putting it lightly lol

[AnnularCane]

on the 12z gfs and canadian it looks like Sunday is when everything comes together, although that wave trailing behind it certainly is a wildcard for the modeling.

What might happen with the wave behind it? Mess up the possible model tracks?

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/AbYZCRe.png
Hmm, Euro has it strengthening in westerly shear, doesn't look realistic to me.

Unrealistic is putting it lightly lol

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/GtrXnVf8/image.png [/url]

That TUTT eventually faded out and upper level wind turns into easterlies, so that intensity can be explained. The suspicious thing is the deepening in 20kt of westerly shear

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro thinks it is 2005 again.

[weeniepatrol]

[Stratton23]

Unbelievably aggressive 12z EPS for the gulf and especially the western gulf in the 10-12 day range, lots to watch, but we are really going to need to watch this closely

[ThunderForce]

I am really not used to seeing the Euro model or its ensembles be this aggressive.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1806037367272165424

[weeniepatrol]

Broad turning evident; low-level westerlies present west of the wave axis. This looks fantastic for an MDR wave along 30W on 26 June.

[Woofde]

12Z Euro thinks it is 2005 again.

What an unreal run, just plows through the Carribean and casually intensifies to 940mb. After watching many seasons of the Euro being king conservative, it now blowing up a storm like this is a serious change of pace aha.

If this season is going to live up to all the hype, it will need to have freak storms like that model run. I'm still skeptical just because it's only one run. That said, the wave has my full attention now.

[Hurricaneman]

If the 2005 hurricane season didn’t happen I would be less inclined to believe the Euro but since there seems to be a very favorable background state I wouldn’t discount the 12zEuro but if other models continue having a stronger signal run after run and the Euro continues to show something similar in later runs then we may have something ominous next week, stay tuned

[kevin]

Easily the craziest June EPS I've ever seen.

[CyclonicFury]

EPS has been overzealous with June MDR systems the past few years. Bret last year as well.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1806050332671131781

[Beef Stew]

While I certainly don't expect something like the 12z euro to pan out at this stage, I agree with others that its concerning to see a normally conservative model with such an aggressive solution this early in the season. Even if it is just an anomalous run- and I personally suspect it is, especially given the lack of importance it's seemingly giving to 20+ kts of shear- it suggests that conditions are running ahead of schedule, and that the overall background state seems to be favorable.

[skyline385]

Below is one EPS run (before the EPS upgrade) for pre-Bonnie 2022 and we all know what happened next, it was the biggest bust I've ever seen. I wouldn't really trust those models until a solid TD/TS forms.
https://i.imgur.com/HQl83ZA.png

And EPS just popped out a very identical run lol

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1806034138148831445