Post your local Mets comments on Isabelle

#41 Postby **bfez1** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:54 pm

Another local mets statement:

"Once the Gulfstream IV jet samples the environment around her tomorrow and begins to feed it into the models, we'll have a better handle on things. I'd say the weekend model runs will be very telling of where she is going to go. My main concern remains for the East Coast and Bahamas."

John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

CocoaBill · #42 Postby **CocoaBill** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:46 pm

NSW Melbourne Discussion 2:30pm 9/11/03:

....."TUE-THU...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF ISABEL. REGARDLESS OF WHAT TRACK IT TAKES...A GENERAL WNW TRACK TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SWELLS. LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW AN INCREASED AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ANY POTENTIAL MORE DIRECT IMPACTS WOULD BE JUST BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. STAY TUNED..........."

Sounds like it aint over until the horizontally-challenged female begins vocal melodies................

hawksnestguy · #43 Postby **hawksnestguy** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 2:20 pm

I'll give you a more detailed Norfolk perspective later tonight (5 and/or 11) but here is what our local ABC met said during the noon news that was replayed on cable:

"Later on next week there will be a potential threat from Hurricane Isabel....

As it continues off to the west, we'll watch to see if it takes a west northwest turn. The models try to take it to the north and could bring it close to the Outer Banks towards next weekend..."

This could get interesting kids!

cjh034 · #44 Postby **cjh034** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 3:42 pm

I was supposed to go to the Outer Banks next Friday. Trip got cancelled due to my friend's wife being pregnant and close to her due date. Looks like the cancellation wasn't so bad after all if Isabel swings a little further north.

Rainband · #45 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:26 pm

Comments from dennis phillips ABC action news Met. "folks we aren't over playing this..this is a serious storm..camille andrew..mitch..this is the catagory Isabel is in..It's too early to say what will happen..One of two things the ridge breaks down and she goes north..the ridge holds and she goes west..I urge you to check back..we do know tuesday it will be east of the bahamas.." Man I have been watching this guy for years..He never is dramatic...I guess he see the serious situation..about to affect someone in a week or so :o :o

deb_in_nc · #46 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:46 pm

CBS WPEC News 12. Local met John Matthews just basicly said that the track could move more S or more N.Too soon to say.

I'll be sooooo glad when recon goes out. Maybe they'll discover we've all been having a bad dream.

Debbie

hawksnestguy · #47 Postby **hawksnestguy** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:50 pm

We have 3 local newscats at 5PM--Here is a summary of what each said:

NBC (WAVY 10)--The computer models have no idea where its going to go--scenarios range from it going into northern FL or brushing Cape Hatteras and out to sea (Close Call Fish?)

ABC (WVEC 13)--Expects for Isabel to work its way towards Bahamas and after that its anybodys guess and thats all they touched on it..seemed more interested in whats left of Henri.

CBS (WTKR 3)--Stays Cat 4 or Cat 5--will begin a turn to the NW but says this weekend or early next week will get a better idea of what it will do

This area a lot of times when its on top of us, they go juggernaut but right now they are a little lax about it because we haven't had a so called "direct hit" in Norfolk since 1933. Usually if it gets bad, the Navy will take all their ships out to sea!

Since this is one of the closest TV markets to Cape Hatteras (Their cable system uses Greenville, NC and Norfolk, VA stations), its interesting to see how these guys act considering their viewing area.

Rainband · #48 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 4:56 pm

hawksnestguy wrote:We have 3 local newscats at 5PM--Here is a summary of what each said:

NBC (WAVY 10)--The computer models have no idea where its going to go--scenarios range from it going into northern FL or brushing Cape Hatteras and out to sea (Close Call Fish?)

ABC (WVEC 13)--Expects for Isabel to work its way towards Bahamas and after that its anybodys guess and thats all they touched on it..seemed more interested in whats left of Henri.

CBS (WTKR 3)--Stays Cat 4 or Cat 5--will begin a turn to the NW but says this weekend or early next week will get a better idea of what it will do

This area a lot of times when its on top of us, they go juggernaut but right now they are a little lax about it because we haven't had a so called "direct hit" in Norfolk since 1933. Usually if it gets bad, the Navy will take all their ships out to sea!

Since this is one of the closest TV markets to Cape Hatteras (Their cable system uses Greenville, NC and Norfolk, VA stations), its interesting to see how these guys act considering their viewing area.

for any met to say Isabel will turn to the NW is both irresponsible and unproffesional..Glad our OCMs aren't like that. My met gave the scenarios and didn't say Isabel would do either of them..Hopefully you have access to the weather channel..your locals or at least the one that said..she would go NW is cluless..I myself Pray she is a fish!! :wink:

hawksnestguy · #49 Postby **hawksnestguy** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 5:01 pm

These guys are good but they don't know what they are up against! Look at Norfolk's hurricane history--we've gotten pieces of them and not a "direct hit" in YEARS. I think its funny to watch them all while im too busy watching TWC and the boards and models online!

Agua · #50 Postby **Agua** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 5:32 pm

Local said:

It looks to be taking a gradual norwest turn towards the Carolinas. However, the remants of TS Henri could push it south (?!???!??)

Rainband · #51 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 5:34 pm

Agua wrote:Local said:

It looks to be taking a gradual norwest turn towards the Carolinas. However, the remants of TS Henri could push it south (?!???!??)

First where are you!!! Because I feel sorry for you because your locals are idiots.. :lol:

The remnants would pull it a bit father north if anything...and it is moving on a west track ATM :roll:

CocoaBill · #52 Postby **CocoaBill** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 5:35 pm

Henri - pushing Issy south? :oops:

LOL!

That's a good one!

Agua · #53 Postby **Agua** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 6:05 pm

LOL!! I figured y'all'd get a kick out of that one. WLOX in Biloxi. The regular guy (Mike Reader) is out on vacation this week.

hurricanedude · #54 Postby **hurricanedude** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 6:29 pm

Stay tuned to NewsChannel 3 for the very latest on Hurricane Isabel.
This is a storm that could pose a major threat to the eastern United States.

ColdFront77 · #55 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 7:39 pm

Agua wrote:Local said:

It looks to be taking a gradual norwest turn towards the Carolinas. However, the remants of TS Henri could push it south (?!???!??)

CocoaBill wrote:Henri - pushing Issy south? LOL!

That's a good one!

There is some southwesterly movement off the eastern United States in response to the remnant of Henri.

#56 Postby **Turtle742** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:46 pm

Hello folks...

Don't know if this is appropriate, but this is an excerpt from the NWS Boston/Taunton WFO's Area Forecast Discussion:

National Weather Service Taunton MA
356 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2003

Of course, much attention will be focused on the tropics later this weekend as hurricane isabel gets closer and models have a better handle on her intentions. Gfs from two days ago took it to cleveland. Yesterday it aimed it at Mexico. Today it says Bermuda. Gfdl and other models have been more consistent on a wnw then NW track. In general, there will be a surface high pressure ridge off the coast with the stalled frontal boundary from New England southwestward late in the week. A critical factor looks to be the upper air flow, gfs shows an initial upper trough exiting the eastern states early in the week and another one moving into the eastern states toward the end of the week. If isabel slows down, the timing of these upper features will be critical. Time will tell.

I return to work on the long term desk tomorrow morning. So, you'll see some stuff from...me...or should I say our "team."

We'll see how this goes!!! :wink:

--Turtle

JetMaxx · #57 Postby **JetMaxx** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:48 pm

Ken Cook....veteran, well respected Chief Meteorologist at WAGA-TV in Atlanta said this evening it was going to be a very difficult hurricane to forecast beyond 3-4 days...the steering current driving Isabel would weaken and it was unclear what type of pressure pattern would eventually develop and take the powerful hurricane toward land (if at all)...very similar to the language used by Richard Pasch in the 5 p.m. NHC discussion (no surprise...Ken is a former NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist and is normally conservative. I've known him since I was 12 years old).

Anonymous · #58 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:04 pm

At 6:00 P.M. tonight Met said continues on a west track at the present time could remain on a west track for sometime, and it very well could make a jog to the south before it is all said and done with. At this point he said we in the GOM are not in harms way at this time but we should continue to monitor the progress of this storm due to the next ridge will tell it's future movement, and he has gotten several emails from viewers wanting to know where this storm was going and he said that absolutely no one this many days out can predict the final course of this storm. He said we would have a much better picture of where this thing is going early next week to stay tuned to the lastest forecasts.
That was at 6 tonight It is storming here now and cable is out so wont be able to watch the 10"oclock news I dont think.

CocoaBill · #59 Postby **CocoaBill** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:34 am

NWS Melbourne, FL

The ridge is forecast to build:

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND RIDGES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS TOWARD THE GULF COAST. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND OPENS THE GULF COAST FOR THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINAS GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS LOW GETS ABSORBED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN SEABOARD.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER NORTH FL/SOUTHERN GA. THIS WILL PUT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN. LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL COUNTIES THEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

bosag · #60 Postby **bosag** » Fri Sep 12, 2003 5:47 am

Morning all! All 3 mets here in WPB said make sure you have your supplies in check, and get your "official" hurricane tracking map.(the one they give out at Publix). Do you think this was done on cue? I watched all 3 news stations at different times between 500 and 630. Interesting.

Barb in Jupiter

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