HPC: Eastern Trough likely permanent through Fall

[Derek Ortt]

had erin not have recurved, the damage may have been much worse than 9/11. A NYC cat 2 landfall will be much more destructive than Andrew ever could have dreamed of being. Lets never wish something like that on NYC

[MGC]

The current pattern that has such a firm grip on the USA should remain in place at least through mid August. I am a firm beleiver in persistance and this pattern has been persistant. The key will be the strength and location of the UH currently over the west. The UH will likely keep the trough in place over the east coast. Is the east coast hurricane proof this season? I say no. There are several possible tracks with origins in the NW Carb. Can anyone say Donna? I think west coast of Florida is at particular risk with this pattern in place.....MGC

[LarryWx]

I'll take my chances with NOAA you can have rainstorm on the subject of hurricanes,she knows her stuff but I'll still go with NOAA.For anything else I'll take rainstorm. [/quote]

Here's my ranking for most trusted hurricane forecasts:

1) Rainstorm of course (a no brainer)
2) Gray
3) JB
4) NOAA

For winter forecasts:

1) Who else but rainstorm?
2) tie between JB and NOAA

For spring and fall, I don't think rainstorm puts out an official forecast. I'm confident she'd do very well if she did. Maybe one day her generosity will get her to do them? Hint hint RS! For those who do:

1) tie between JB and NOAA

[MGC]

Larry, do you have a crush on RS??????????????.........MGC

[elw]

Larry, do you have a crush on RS??????????????.........MGC

I think so MGC!

[Anonymous]

delete

[LarryWx]

Larry, do you have a crush on RS??????????????.........MGC

I think so MGC!

Funny you two! Come on, be serious. My ranking is based strictly on a series of 16 objective forecast criteria. I then had the calculations independently audited by THREE firms.

[Anonymous]

The current pattern that has such a firm grip on the USA should remain in place at least through mid August. I am a firm beleiver in persistance and this pattern has been persistant. The key will be the strength and location of the UH currently over the west. The UH will likely keep the trough in place over the east coast. Is the east coast hurricane proof this season? I say no. There are several possible tracks with origins in the NW Carb. Can anyone say Donna? I think west coast of Florida is at particular risk with this pattern in place.....MGC

A point well taken that Florida may be at risk from a "Donna type" hurricane, if a trough dominates in the East this fall.

Here, place the trough upper right, the high lower left. A direct landfall !


http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm

[LarryWx]

Well, in 1981, Ben Tackett used to be one of the local weatherman here and he explained in September that an active jet-stream pushed many hurricanes out to sea.

Ken,
From the 1970's, do you remember Charlie Broyles (Ch. 4), Charlie Hall (Ch. 5..he threw the chalk up..he passed much later I think), Dave and Don (the dual met.'s at Ch. 2), Karen McGinnis (later at Ch. 2 and now in Atlanta; was on CNN I think), Dallas Raines (not Happy Rain the lady on that children's show;) ) (Ch 2?? and later on CNN??; now in a big city I think) and Drayton Cooper (Ch. 2 also; maybe not a met? but good imo). I didn't live there, but had all three Charleston stations on cable.

[NJCane]

With an eastern trough and many Cape Verde storms, look for tracks similar to Fabian last year. This is great news for me (not Bermuda) because I dont want the storm to hit the coast, only send massive, perfect waves...

[Anonymous]

Well, in 1981, Ben Tackett used to be one of the local weatherman here and he explained in September that an active jet-stream pushed many hurricanes out to sea.

Ken,
From the 1970's, do you remember Charlie Broyles (Ch. 4), Charlie Hall (Ch. 5..he threw the chalk up..he passed much later I think), Dave and Don (the dual met.'s at Ch. 2), Karen McGinnis (later at Ch. 2 and now in Atlanta; was on CNN I think), Dallas Raines (not Happy Rain the lady on that children's show;) ) (Ch 2?? and later on CNN??; now in a big city I think) and Drayton Cooper (Ch. 2 also; maybe not a met? but good imo). I didn't live there, but had all three Charleston stations on cable.

Yes I remember Charlie Hall from Channel 5 - now passed away. I used to watch him daily back in the early mid 80's, I also remember Betsy Green who used to scream allot (lol), and I remember Specks Munzell back in 1981. A girl from high school once told me "she couldn't stand him" lol. I also remember Karen McGinnis.

Yes, those were the days of hand-drawn weather charts. How primitive !

[Anonymous]

In fact, I remember being so fearful of hearing "bad news" after the first September hurricane (Floyd ??) pushed out to sea that I hid in my room when Ben Tacket explained the reason for it turning out to sea lol ! I didn't want to spoil it the rest of the season, but my fears came true anyway

[Anonymous]

Nooo!!! this cant be true--East coast is NOT cane free right???? This season is supposed to be active---but a bunch of fishies---then who cares....There was a trough in the east with floyd---and storms can still hit fla with a trough in the east right???just depends on the position of the bermuda high and the trough! It oscilates east and west and a cane just needs a window to sneak through imho--its always this way to a degree correct? Floyd is a good example of an east coast trough in place imho! This is hearbreaking for me and I throw in the towell and dont care about cane season '04 if trough is that deep

[LarryWx]

There was a trough in the east with floyd---and storms can still hit fla with a trough in the east right???just depends on the position of the bermuda high and the trough! It oscilates east and west and a cane just needs a window to sneak through imho--its always this way to a degree correct? Floyd is a good example of an east coast trough in place imho! This is hearbreaking for me and I throw in the towell and dont care about cane season '04 if trough is that deep

Ken is talking about Floyd from 1981, which was easily steered well east of the US as a result of a persistent eastern US trough. There really was a persistent strong east coast trough for Floyd of 1999, thus allowing it to still hit NC on the recurve. That was more of an incoming trough with some east coast ridging in advance of it.

By the way, do you think we should consider a deep eastern trough during the heart of hurricane season as "evil"?

[MWatkins]

First...man...what a popular post. Derecho really knows how to stir up discussion.

Second, just a quick note that the HPC discussion from today gave an analog to the 8-11 day period. That is way out past the overall usefullness of the model in terms of resolution (data fields to initialize the model periods are halved after 168 hours) Don't believe me? Check out the last 2 solutions from the GFS:

First...this is the 12Z GFS 500MB with a bigtime trough along the east coast near day 8 from forecast time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

Now note the 18Z GFS with the same verification time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168m.gif

The 588 DM high is much better established...and the next trough is digging in (rather than sweeping through) further west along the central US.

Even by day 11 the 588DM ridge dominates the entire basin...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264m.gif

12Z at the same verification time...(actually 6 hours after the verification time for the 18Z but close enough)...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_276m.gif

And what the heck, just for fun I'll throw in the 00Z GFS from last night at the same V time as the 00Z GFS...note there is NO decent ridging west of 75W...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_288m.gif

So...the 00Z put the western extent of the ridge in the period in question at 75W....

The 12Z says 80W (but with some weaknesses along the way)

and the 18Z says 100W (but with SE flow around 80W).

So...before anyone gets too excited...lets wait to see if the solution verifies.

MW

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's definitely gonna be difficult to see an east coast hurricane or tropical system type landfall if this patterm continues to remain in place.

[Stormsfury]

Well, in 1981, Ben Tackett used to be one of the local weatherman here and he explained in September that an active jet-stream pushed many hurricanes out to sea. Will this season be similar ? We'll have to see.

I remember 1981 very well - I was 16 at the time and awaiting T.S. Dennis here in South Carolina ! I watched it since it became a storm Aug.7, and it's 2 week long journey across the Atlantic - developed, dissipated to a wave, then re-developed in the West Caribbean, moved north into Florida, became stationary, then finally merged NE off the FL coast and scurted the Carolina coast, then strengthened to a hurricane off Cape Hatteras ! A very complex system ! Actually I was a little dissapointed after it arrived here, only seeing some wind gusts and occassional heavy showers by afternoon. After that, the rest of the hurricanes recurved out to sea.

Earlier in late June, T.S. Bret formed just off the N.C. coast and I remember how excited I was. I was -removed- Bret to move SW and impact my area, but that of course never happened. But I do remember spiral cloud bands circling to our NE the day it formed.

In fact, I remember when Dennis weakened in the Tropical Atlantic from near hurricane strength down to 45mph. I was taking a nap hoping for Dennis to be upgraded to a hurricane in the 6pm advisory....... after I woke up, my parents said "well Ken, Dennis must have fallen asleep when you took your nap" lol !

Remember, an active jet stream along the East doesn't mean that we won't have an active TC season.

Yes I remember Charlie Hall from Channel 5 - now passed away. I used to watch him daily back in the early mid 80's, I also remember Betsy Green who used to scream allot (lol), and I remember Specks Munzell back in 1981. A girl from high school once told me "she couldn't stand him" lol. I also remember Karen McGinnis.

Yes, those were the days of hand-drawn weather charts. How primitive !

Man, you brought up a lot of memories of the days past in TV meteorology in Charleston. Charlie Hall (R.I.P.) was so well-respected in the Charleston Community, and it was a shame when he passed. I believe he was having a routine checkup on his heart when something went wrong with the procedure.

[stormchazer]

Hmmm...there is another Topic on the board tonight which points out the GFS runs showing almost no East Coast Troughs. I'm so confused.

[Brent]

Ick.

I hate recurving storms.

[george_r_1961]

Dont throw in the towel yet. Even if this trough does persist for a month..or even 6 weeks..and I dont think it will, the main threat for the EC is late August thru September. And a strong Bermuda Azores high would prevent recurvature regardless of the presence of a trough. The effect would be similar to what happens to a bowling ball caught in a gutter. The hurricane could be drawn into the trough with catastrophic results. I believe this happened with a 1930's era hurricane dubbed "The Long Island Express". This particular storm got sucked into a trough aligned off the coast...bypassing the Carolinas and Virginia but slamming into Long Island with NO WARNING at a forward speed of 50-60 mph with devastating results.