Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Derek Ortt · #41 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:08 pm

One other point, <b><u>THIS IS NOT CLAUDETTE!</b></u> Claudette had a well established ridge and no SAL interactions when it formed in the E Carib last year. This one has both shear and SAL to deal with. Maybe in the W Carib this needs to be monitored, but not for a few days, IMO (now watch me have to change my opinion in a couple of hours if Cangialosi says something different, lol)

bahamaswx · #42 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:11 pm

Agreed. Not for a few days, but where's the shear? I see no shear inhibiting this one.

lilbump3000 · #43 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:12 pm

They so use to saying the word shear this season they just cant stop saying it.

rbaker · #44 Postby **rbaker** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:16 pm

systems that are not a td at least generaly don't form in the eastern caribbean. Latest 21z surface reports from the islands down there don't show any north or west winds. Gotta have a west wind to close off the circulation. Just because the satellite shows circulation, it could be mid level. I think it looked a little better organized earlier today. But these waves have a tendency to pulse up and down. Just like the last one that went through there about a week ago. This one is moving too fast yet.

#45 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:20 pm

There is no horizontal shear impacting this system at all at this moment...there will be in a couple of days. There is, however, vertical shear. The system is moving way too fast and if doesn't develop in the next 2 days...it will be because of vertical shear...not the SAL or horizontal upper level shear. If a LLC does form...I suspect it will not last long unless it slows down...and by the time that happens...it will run into the horizontal shear being produced by the anticyclone over the Bahamas.

The Dark Knight · #46 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:31 pm

Oh yeah..... Good point.......

Thunder44 · #47 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Everyone, lets all calm down! Lay off of the cheap shots on Dr Lyons. He's a very ncie person and does not deserve to be laughed at because his analysis is different from a personal opinion.

BTW, even the most aggressive people at my office were saying that this was weakening as it was becomming linear in nature this afternoon

Yeah, I'm sure he's a nice person and I do respect his position and opinions. And I didn't mean to laugh at him, more so the apparent disagreement between both offices. But I've been watching the last few years, he does sometimes put aside his opinion aside for the NHC. Ultimately it's going to be the NHC that is going to classify this system or not. Not TWC.

#48 Postby **elw** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:35 pm

Just alot of easterly winds associated with the system. No signs of any Low Level circulation right now.

Derecho · #49 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:47 pm

elw wrote:
Just alot of easterly winds associated with the system. No signs of any Low Level circulation right now.

Eh, "right now" being 5:30AM this past morning; that was the morning QS pass.

They have a poor graphical setup, people see the time at the top, which is whenever the latest swath is updated, even if it isn't the area you're looking at (the latest swath completed is actually the one of the Cape Verdes, and the swaths move East to West);

The actual time of the swath being looked at is in tiny pink numbers on the bottom on the swath.

The evening QS pass for the area won't be for some time. Not that I expect it to have much more of a circ, if the pass doesn't miss it.

#50 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Everyone, lets all calm down! Lay off of the cheap shots on Dr Lyons. He's a very ncie person and does not deserve to be laughed at because his analysis is different from a personal opinion.

BTW, even the most aggressive people at my office were saying that this was weakening as it was becomming linear in nature this afternoon

Great point Derek! Regardless of where he works, I do respect his opinions. I would tend to follow what he has to say about a system before alot of others.

kevin · #51 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:48 pm

Yes. Looks totally like a wave.

Anonymous · #52 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 5:53 pm

I agree with Steve's analysis. Development does not appear to be imminent. If this wave were to form, it would likely be a few days down the road.

#53 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:46 pm

Air Force Met wrote:There is no horizontal shear impacting this system at all at this moment...there will be in a couple of days. There is, however, vertical shear. The system is moving way too fast and if doesn't develop in the next 2 days...it will be because of vertical shear...not the SAL or horizontal upper level shear. If a LLC does form...I suspect it will not last long unless it slows down...and by the time that happens...it will run into the horizontal shear being produced by the anticyclone over the Bahamas.

Air Force Met,
Would you or someone else please explain horizontal and vertical shear a bit more? I'm currently a bit confused by your terminology with regard to shear. I've always assumed that the main shear that affects tropical systems is "vertical", the change in wind SPEED and/or DIRECTION with altitude. For example, I've always known the shear that is shown at this link to be "vertical":

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Looking at this map, the UPPER level vertical shear is, indeed, very low if you believe the map. However, you said: "There is no horizontal shear impacting this system at all at this moment...there will be in a couple of days. There is, however, vertical shear."

The definition of horizontal shear I've seen is a change in wind speed/and or direction with horizontal movement. I don't recall reading that horizontal is nearly as significant a factor (or perhaps a factor at all) as vertical shear. Yet, you said: "If a LLC does form...I suspect it will not last long unless it slows down...and by the time that happens...it will run into the horizontal shear being produced by the anticyclone over the Bahamas."

Is it possible that you are referring to one kind of shear as being a result of strong lower level easterlies moving the system faster than easterly winds at higher levels (i.e., vertical shear produced by a change in wind SPEED with height) while the other kind is referring to the "classic" upper level SW kind of shear (low level easterly flow with higher level SW flow producing DIRECTIONAL vertical shear)?

Help! :wink:

Any further explanation would be appreciated. Thanks.

KatDaddy · #54 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:58 pm

Dr Lyon's stated it still become a TD or TS however climo showed no storms have developed in E Caribbean S of Puerto Rico this week in July......but he said there is always a first. He also indicated Westerly winds aloft over the Caribbean and the system has weakened since earlier today.

kevin · #55 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:28 pm

GIVEN THE VERY FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY AN INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITHIN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. DESPITE THE FAST
MOTION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.<<

They're saying its favorable. Also TWO says 25-30 kt movement, so those who spoke of it slowing today were mistaken. Its buzzing.

Josephine96 · #56 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:37 pm

As much as I wanna see this thing develop.. IT MUST SLOW DOWN!

The last several seasons.. I've seen countless storms book it across the Atlantic where the convection has got way ahead of the center or the center has somehow ended up way ahead of the convection...

If you can knock 5-10 mph off it's motion.. That could make it a better chance to become a healthier system.

By the way.. No disrespect intended to Steve Lyons but I don't watch TWC anymore because of him. I miss John Hope and TWCs ratings have tanked for a while now.. I'll wait till either 10-11 tonight and see what my local mets say.

#57 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:39 pm

kevin wrote:GIVEN THE VERY FAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY AN INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITHIN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD. DESPITE THE FAST
MOTION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.<<

They're saying its favorable. Also TWO says 25-30 kt movement, so those who spoke of it slowing today were mistaken. Its buzzing.

A. It is not expected to slow down until tomorrow.

B. Latest QScat pass still suggests a liner structure in the low levels.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBds26.png

MW

Josephine96 · #58 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:42 pm

Thank you for that MW

Anonymous · #59 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:42 pm

I believe this was brought up last year...if the wave is traveling too fast, the QS may not be able to pick up a slight west wind, if it has one. Correct me if i'm wrong.

#60 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:55 pm

The circulation is a mid level one currently. I think it is moving too fast right now to close off a west wind. In a couple of days when it is south of Hispinola it will be in a more favorible climo area for development. I'd bet obs from the islands tonight will show mainly an easterly wind. If the NHC sends down a recon then I'd really start paying attention......MGC

Dr. Lyons - No Development!

Dr Lyon's statement development is possible

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