Post about latest model runs here

#41 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:20 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054m.gif

00Z GFS has landfall near or just east of Mobile Bay...slightly further east from 18Z run.

panamacity_wxman · #42 Postby **panamacity_wxman** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:24 am

Interesting that the models now come into agreement on Mobile landfall. I think we may have to wait for the 6z or 12z before we can say for sure.

panamacity_wxman · #43 Postby **panamacity_wxman** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:34 am

I think that a surface low may be trying to develop in SE GA and this may cause a weak surface trough to form and may begin to turn Ivan more easterly. Any thoughts?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/us_ptnd.gif

#44 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:36 am

00Z NOGAPS still says New Orleans.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif

#45 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:40 am

PurdueWx80 wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_054m.gif

00Z GFS has landfall near or just east of Mobile Bay...slightly further east from 18Z run.

Good news for New Orleans, bad news for areas eastward.
I'm still sticking with a MS/AL landfall. I hope he weakens to
at least a cat. 2-3 storm. I hate to see any city feel the full
brunt of this monster.

9:48 · #46 Postby **9:48** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:45 am

The 00Z Canadian has made a HUGE shift east. Now showing landfall in Pcola.

#47 Postby **tronbunny** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 12:55 am

9:48 wrote:The 00Z Canadian has made a HUGE shift east. Now showing landfall in Pcola.

Very interesting, but....
From the AL/FL border to P'cola is not HUGE.
P'cola is still even in the Mobile NWS area.

Here are the 0914 GFDL 0z numbers

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IVAN 09L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.6 85.1 330./ 8.0
6 22.6 85.6 332./11.0
12 23.5 86.3 323./10.7
18 24.5 86.9 329./11.5
24 25.4 87.5 326./10.9
30 26.2 88.1 326./ 9.7
36 27.3 88.4 344./11.1
42 28.4 88.6 350./10.9
48 29.5 88.3 17./11.4
54 30.7 88.1 10./12.1 <- looks like Mobile, AL @noon Thur.
60 32.0 87.7 15./12.7
66 33.2 87.2 23./12.7
72 34.1 86.5 36./11.0
78 35.0 85.6 48./11.7
84 36.2 84.3 45./16.0
90 37.3 83.2 48./14.4
96 38.0 82.0 59./11.2
102 38.3 81.1 74./ 8.2
108 37.5 79.6 116./14.1
114 37.6 78.0 86./12.1
120 37.9 77.1 73./ 7.9
126 37.4 76.7 140./ 6.0

I don't like the post landfall data..
Very bad for flooding!
:eek:

<edit> 0547z pos data- 22.3 85.6
close to 0z GFDL, on track for western point, but south by .3!

panamacity_wxman · #48 Postby **panamacity_wxman** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 1:08 am

Based on the latest fix. It appears Ivan is moving more North and west. He went .4 degree north and only .2 west. If this trend continues, the 6z model runs may be very interesting for P'cola and points east.

panamacity_wxman · #49 Postby **panamacity_wxman** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:05 am

the 6z UKMET is more to the east now. Looks like landfall between Mobile and P'cola. Could be a bad sign that Ivan is moving more north than west. Have to wait and see.

Anonymous · #50 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:25 am

Hmmmmm--- The trend is our friend and if this more Northward movement continues models will likely continue to shift east... Panama city? Appalachee Bay??

panamacity_wxman · #51 Postby **panamacity_wxman** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:15 am

What is wrong with the 6z run? It appears that some kind of data outage occurred and we don't have the 6z run to review. NHC shifted the landfall .5 degrees further east on this latest advisory.

Scott_inVA · #52 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:33 am

panamacity_wxman wrote:What is wrong with the 6z run? It appears that some kind of data outage occurred and we don't have the 6z run to review. NHC shifted the landfall .5 degrees further east on this latest advisory.

I'm unable to ingest the 6Z tropical run.
PSU seems not to be updating ATTM.
Nice timing.
I'll see if I can get the map updated manually
EC will be on after 9AM TU.

"It's always something" [/sigh]
Scott

TLHR · #53 Postby **TLHR** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 6:42 am

What is up with the models lately??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The GDFL curving BACK towards NC?
Everything else zig-zagging??

I think Ivan strayed to close to Jamaica!!

Tip · #54 Postby **Tip** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:11 am

Last night's Euro model shows an incredible high pressure building in SW Atlantic. I can't see Ivan or the other storm penetrating very far northeasat while this thing is in place and we're talking about ten days out!

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

#55 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:50 am

12Z GEM 36 hours -
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 610_50.gif

12Z GEM 48 hours -
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 611_50.gif

Basically in agreement w/ the NHC, although it does clip the MS Delta region of LA.

#56 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 11:02 am

12Z GFS - landall just west of Mobile Bay on Thursday morning - not looking good for the folks in Mobile.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048m.gif

12Z Euro - not sure but it looks like landfall is somewhere in MS or LA.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082612!!/

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:04 pm

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL STORM JEANNE     (AL112004) ON 20040914  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040914  1800   040915  0600   040915  1800   040916  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    16.7N  63.5W   17.2N  65.1W   17.7N  66.8W   18.0N  68.3W
  BAMM    16.7N  63.5W   17.3N  65.5W   18.0N  67.2W   18.4N  68.7W
  A98E    16.7N  63.5W   17.2N  65.3W   17.5N  67.2W   17.7N  69.1W
  LBAR    16.7N  63.5W   17.1N  65.2W   18.0N  67.0W   18.7N  68.7W
  SHIP        45KTS          55KTS          63KTS          68KTS
  DSHP        45KTS          55KTS          47KTS          52KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040916  1800   040917  1800   040918  1800   040919  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.0N  69.6W   17.8N  71.6W   18.1N  73.1W   19.7N  74.5W
  BAMM    18.7N  69.9W   18.6N  71.8W   19.1N  72.8W   21.7N  72.7W
  A98E    17.5N  71.0W   17.0N  74.2W   15.9N  77.1W   15.0N  79.5W
  LBAR    19.2N  70.4W   20.4N  73.1W   22.4N  75.0W   25.7N  75.4W
  SHIP        73KTS          77KTS          75KTS          76KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          61KTS          59KTS          60KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  16.7N LONCUR =  63.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
  LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  61.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  59.7W
  WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  30NM

#58 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:11 pm

can u post a graphic for that cycloneye?

<RICKY>

#59 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:21 pm

Ivan:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

Jeanne:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_11.gif

yoda · #60 Postby **yoda** » Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:41 pm

After looking closely at the 12z ECMWF, I am led to believe that Jeanne goes over S FL, goes into the GOM, and then makes second landfall near Pensacola. But, if one looks at the 168 hours out page.. and at the FAR RIGHT... What exactly is that HUGE low pressure system? Is that Karl?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 004091412!!

Post about latest model runs here

0Z run of the models

Pressure falls in SE AL and SW GA

More Northward Movement

The UKMET

Jeanne Models at 18:00

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