The fallacy of calling 94L Ivan ...

[coriolis]

Does this mean that the forecasts for landfalls anywhere from east coast florida to texas were all right after all? It only took 3 landfalls to do it.

[Brent]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...

Oh, I'm kinda hoping Stewart took Avila DOWN, baby!

CNN just reported arrests at the NHC...

[Brent]

Does this mean that the forecasts for landfalls anywhere from east coast florida to texas were all right after all? It only took 3 landfalls to do it.

Well if you believe Ivan is really Ivan, yes.

[yoda]

Oh dear Brent. Was Avila one of them?

[recmod]

SO..........are you guys saying that when Jeanne spit out its low level circulation center to the west over Cuba earlier this week that the newly formed circulation should have resulted in a name change????????????

How about Mitch in 1998??? That one was a non-entity for days over Central America before reforming in the Gulf. The NHX retained his name then.... I really don't see any lack of continuity in the NHX reasoning.

One thing I WOULD like to add....to those on the board earlier this week that were naysaying the possible return of Ivan: Many of you were quite beligerent in your ridicule of anyone who posted the possibility of Ivan coming back. I could "cut and paste" many nasty posts from know-it-alls that have turned out to be wrong. The bottom line: everyone should be welcome to post their observations and opinions on this board. If you don't agree, that's fine. Posts reasons and logic to back up your own opinion. But keep the childish rebukes to yourself.

[recmod]

oops...NHX in my last post chould have read NHC

[Brent]

Oh dear Brent. Was Avila one of them?

Hopefully.

[jude]

Isn't tha same name game going to create havoc with computer systems for years to come?
Glad I don't teach a weather statistics course.

[FritzPaul]

...the NHC is going against their history here.

Well, apparently it wasn't without the vigorous type of debate we've seen here:

WTNT44 KNHC 222302
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

yep.. very interesting. Oh well. Wonder what they mean by animated...[/quote]

Meaning they couldn't arrive at a peaceful consensus.
They may need a bear watch issued for the NHC!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Omg...why don't people read?

recmod...Jeanne was a CONTINUOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE...Jeanne neither A) became extratropical or B) became a tropical wave. Refer to my earlier post on the difference.


Mitch had a continuous surface low...now...just because the clouds are gone doesn't mean it's a non-entity.

IVAN...had become extratropical...IVAN's surface center disappeared....IVAN split into two 500 mb vorts.

[HurryKane]

Oh dear Brent. Was Avila one of them?

Hopefully.

See, I can decode government speak. Avila wrote it, so...

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...

What that really means is "Stewart dropped me headfirst on the floor and gave me the noogie of a lifetime." And then...

WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

This translates to "I AM RIGHT, dammit, but Stewart made me see stars so I have to grudingly agree with his superior analysis."

[Stormsfury]

SO..........are you guys saying that when Jeanne spit out its low level circulation center to the west over Cuba earlier this week that the newly formed circulation should have resulted in a name change????????????

NOPE .. clearly the same weather system, no troughs interacting into splitting the "CORE CIRC" ... a relocated, or new center developing within an ongoing storm is all too common ... yet, when IVAN completely LOSES its SFC circ to and absorbed by an extratropical low pressure system ... and only a sliver of a 500mb vort max is the only thing left, NO SFC reflection ... WTF?

How about Mitch in 1998??? That one was a non-entity for days over Central America before reforming in the Gulf. The NHX retained his name then.... I really don't see any lack of continuity in the NHX reasoning.

Again, no splitting of the system ... the system didn't split into two pieces thusly the CORE of Mitch was still intact ...

One thing I WOULD like to add....to those on the board earlier this week that were naysaying the possible return of Ivan: Many of you were quite beligerent in your ridicule of anyone who posted the possibility of Ivan coming back. I could "cut and paste" many nasty posts from know-it-alls that have turned out to be wrong. The bottom line: everyone should be welcome to post their observations and opinions on this board. If you don't agree, that's fine. Posts reasons and logic to back up your own opinion. But keep the childish rebukes to yourself.

I backed my opinions up with sound reasoning and meteorological thoughts on why I believed it did didn't have much of a chance ... dry air, stable boundary layer air, etc ...

Well, I busted ... and the one player that I didn't think would aid in re-development (a boost from the deep tropical regions), occurred ...

SF

[Guest]

Stormsfury I agree. NHC has broke the common law.

[greeng13]

ivan/minivan has started the militant wing of the nhc!

[Hurricanehink]

Possibly, they will have this part of the storm as Tropical Storm #14 or something like that. I think it should be Matthew, and Stormsfury, I back you 100%.

[greeng13]

it's already ivan though...unless they retract it and call it something else post-mortem

[cybercyclone]

How strong was the Northern "Lobe"? HPC haf issued a 1002 MB low off the coast of ORF shortly after the initial re-emergence into the Atlantic, that at least seems to indicate that some sort of surface anomaly was what went south, though I am not a pro and could be wrong.

[MW98GT]

I use Hurrtrak and the plot does look funny. Hurrtrak thinks the storm is going 200 degrees at 4 mph. The track when it hit was around 20 degrees. It basically looks like it was spit back out.

[Stormsfury]

How strong was the Northern "Lobe"? HPC haf issued a 1002 MB low off the coast of ORF shortly after the initial re-emergence into the Atlantic, that at least seems to indicate that some sort of surface anomaly was what went south, though I am not a pro and could be wrong.

Maps that were posted back a few days ago by DT (WxRisk.Com) showed that that particular low pressure system developed in response to baroclinic effects and NOT a part of Ivan's SFC reflection ... that low was in response to the trough/baroclinicity of a different 500mb s/w ... very choatic looking actually ...

SF

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Did you ever email the NHC with your synopsis?...if so what was their response?