Major Hurricane in New York...

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wxmann_91
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#41 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:53 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Does anyone think this horrible senario will play out


It will one day. You see, the most dangerous aspect of a hurricane hitting NYC is the surge and not the wind. An Ivan-isque storm will wipe out NYC. I saw on the Discovery Channel where a hurricane was heading toward NYC that a 15 ft surge would be funnelled in through a "right angle" that Long Island and the coast of New Jersey form. This right angle would also enhance the surge (it acts like a funnel), so a 15 ft surge regularly would become a 25 ft surge as it crashes into Manhattan. The right front quadrant of a storm would funnel the surge through and into the Narrows, Staten Island, the Hudson and East Rivers, and Newark Bay. The surge would unfortuantely inundate Manhattan. Wall Street would come tumbling down. Newark and much of Long Island would too be hit by the surge.

And Cat 4 hurricanes have hit New Jersey in the past 100 years. I forgot which year, but a Cat 4 hit in what was then sparsley-populated Atlantic City.
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#42 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:10 pm

It will play out... it's just a question of when. I hope we're not alive to see it.
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Derek Ortt

#43 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:13 pm

A cat 1 produces about 12 feet in NYC. Cat 2 probably leave Brooklyn under water

Dont want to think about what a 3 or a 4 would do
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hey Derek

#44 Postby WXFIEND » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:38 pm

This thread is scaring me.

I live in Jersey City, which is right between Newark and Manhattan on that little peninsula, north of Staten Island. I live blocks from the Newark Bay and the Hudson River is blocks from my school... we're really situated right between both.

My dad works in NYC too... my entire area (Newark, Jersey City, NYC area) would be completely destroyed.. scary thought to say the least.

He says during intense winds of about 50+ winds, his building sways NOTICEABLY. He's a mechanical engineer and the building is designed to do this, but he says its so much you can actually see it when you look at other buildings. It's to prevent the building from collapsing. Imagine 120mph :eek:

This would be truly catastrophic... my house, if not blown down to begin with, would be completely underwater.. and I live at the bottom of a huge hill near the river.

Not to mention that almost all the people here are not aware of what hurricanes can do and they would probably not evacuate. Many people do not even know English...


This place is WAITING to be destroyed.
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#45 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:45 pm

Yeah, I imagine the "denial" or simply the ignorance factor is possibly worse there than anywhere else.

I've lived in 3 coastal cities and the "it won't happen here"
attitude is rampant. I've never been to NYC but it seems from what I have read very few are even aware a hurricane could hit NYC, much less WILL some day.

In the context of everything we have been so extremely lucky it can't last much longer.

Someday a major will hit NYC or NO or Tampa or Galveston
Someday a major earthquake will hit LA or SFO or even MEMPHIS TN
Someday an F4 or F5 will buzzsaw through the DFW Metroplex
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Re: hey Derek

#46 Postby sweetpea » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:49 pm

WXFIEND wrote:This thread is scaring me.

I live in Jersey City, which is right between Newark and Manhattan on that little peninsula, north of Staten Island. I live blocks from the Newark Bay and the Hudson River is blocks from my school... we're really situated right between both.

My dad works in NYC too... my entire area (Newark, Jersey City, NYC area) would be completely destroyed.. scary thought to say the least.

He says during intense winds of about 50+ winds, his building sways NOTICEABLY. He's a mechanical engineer and the building is designed to do this, but he says its so much you can actually see it when you look at other buildings. It's to prevent the building from collapsing. Imagine 120mph :eek:

This would be truly catastrophic... my house, if not blown down to begin with, would be completely underwater.. and I live at the bottom of a huge hill near the river.

Not to mention that almost all the people here are not aware of what hurricanes can do and they would probably not evacuate. Many people do not even know English...


This place is WAITING to be destroyed.


VERY SCARY thought. I was born and raised in NJ, hubby in Brooklyn, We have a ton of family there. Hopefully this does not happen in our lifetimes.
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yeah

#47 Postby WXFIEND » Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:51 pm

Most people here would not be aware. It would be a catastrophe. We have been awfully lucky (I don't mean "We" like HERE, i mean as a nation/weatherwise)... its waiting to happen.
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#48 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:19 pm

Getting everyone out would be impossible too... too many people, too few roads, plus most people won't even leave if they could.

Vertical evacuation is suicide, staying is suicide, being in a car is suicide, so your pretty much screwed.

If I was in NYC... I would get out 2-3 days before the storm arrived, you don't want to be caught off-guard.

Imagine the media hype... everyone is based there.
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#49 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:21 pm

I'd try and stay on floor 3 if I were in NYC and pray that the building doesn't come down, or another one falls on top of the one you are in
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#50 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:24 pm

Its only a matter of time before NYC gets clocked
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#51 Postby donsutherland1 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:35 pm

Wlfpack81,

Hurricane Bob was a Category 2 hurricane at landfall.
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#52 Postby JTD » Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:55 pm

Brent wrote:Getting everyone out would be impossible too... too many people, too few roads, plus most people won't even leave if they could.

Vertical evacuation is suicide, staying is suicide, being in a car is suicide, so your pretty much screwed.

If I was in NYC... I would get out 2-3 days before the storm arrived, you don't want to be caught off-guard.

Imagine the media hype... everyone is based there.


Yes. The coverage would be saturation for sure and rightfully so.

Also, remember Floyd passed through NYC too and that got the attention of the NY media for sure.
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#53 Postby EDR1222 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:38 pm

Those scenarios in heavily populated areas are scary to think about. Especially New Jersey. It is most likely that any storm that far north would be moving fast which always effects preparation time. And with those dense populations, it would almost impossible to get everyone out of harms way.
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#54 Postby beachbum_al » Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:48 pm

Anything could happen.
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Jim Cantore

#55 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:27 pm

Ok cat 4 might seem high but I wouldn't put it by this hurricane season
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RE:

#56 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 7:39 pm

Up here in my local area for example (where floods from Hurricane Edna killed at least 60 people in 1954) the ignorance factor is appalling. One day another storm will strike, and like in NYC and Long Island, the damage and death will be far worse than in more southern locals where these storms are more common place :cry:
Of course by far the thought of a major storm striking near NYC/Long Island is the stuff of nightmares in the world of North Atlantic hurricanes :eek: Let us hope it doesn't happen for many many many years to come.


Hybridstorm_November2001
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Derek Ortt

#57 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:14 pm

a major in NYC would likely cause severe economic disruption, just due to the severe amount of damage (hundreds of billions, if not trillions)
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#58 Postby smashmode » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:34 pm

How would it hold on to its energy..wouldnt the cold waters off of New York sap the strength from the storm?
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Derek Ortt

#59 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:56 pm

storms that his LI or NE usually move at near 30-50 m.p.h.
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RE:

#60 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:15 pm

Take a look at this puppy. Cat. 2 (maybe cat 3) storms can get all the way up here. 'Cause like the man said, they are flying once they hit 40 N.


Image
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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