Finnally better weather in Puerto Rico (Edited)

[Rainband]

looks like the days ahead are gonna be wet

[cycloneye]

looks like the days ahead are gonna be wet

Yes at least until tuesday but maybe more days ahead.Depends on where that SW caribbean future low tracks we will get tons of rain or less amounts.

[Rainband]

Stay safe and keep us posted.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

[msbee]

what's the time frame on when you expect the heavy convection to reach PR?

[cycloneye]

what's the time frame on when you expect the heavy convection to reach PR?

This first batch of convection will arrive tonight by the way it is a tropical wave which has flared up south of Puerto Rico enhanced by the trough.

The most important feature that SW caribbean system will take until monday or early tuesday to cross into the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

PRZ001-141300-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES OF...BAYAMON...CAROLINA...CATANO...
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...TRUJILLO ALTO
358 PM AST FRI MAY 13 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...CLOUDY UNTIL EARLY MORNING THEN BECOMING VARIABLY CLOUDY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT.
LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 64 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS
88 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 77 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
64 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS 88 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
77 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 78 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 66 HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 89 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 78 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS 77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 64 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS 89 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
78 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE EVENING. LOWS
77 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 61 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 90 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
80 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

There appears to be a little circulation just off the Ponce coast in southern Puerto Rico moving ENE.For those who may be worried for me I am safe and dry.

[msbee]

Luis
is that convection as bad as it looks?
are you getting heavy rain?
Barbara

[cycloneye]

Luis
is that convection as bad as it looks?
are you getting heavy rain?
Barbara

Yes it has rained in a heavy stage in San Juan and in other parts of the island this evening.Amounts so far between 1-3 inches has fallen.

By the way I still see a small circulation now just SE of Ponce moving ENE.

[Rainband]

I see that too.

[msbee]

yes, I noticed it when you pointed it out before

[gatorcane]

Funny how this time last year we saw a similar feature dump heavy rain into Haiti and Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

Funny how this time last year we saw a similar feature dump heavy rain into Haiti and Puerto Rico

Thankfully Puerto Rico did not got the full force of that low last year with those torrential rains but tragic for Haiti.

[gatorcane]

true I remember that...cycloneEye I'm starting to see some similarities in the weather patterns across FL and the Caribbean to last year. For example, FL is seeing the Easterlies really pick up over the last few days and it was this time last year that they begun. These easterlies wait until later in the summer to get going. Now we have this feature that may dump rain in Haiti again....what is your take on these events? Also somebody I knew was in the Dominican Republic and a few of the natives are thinking a hurricane is going to hit this year due to the high levels of humidity (that was back in March) and from their "intuitive feeling."

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST SAT MAY 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
OF THE FA MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.

AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 70 DEGREES WEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ELONGATED REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA EAST NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 21 DEGREES NORTH AND 60 DEGREES WEST...AND THEN NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
ALONG THIS OLD BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MONDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MID TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD MAKE FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN... GIVEN ANTECEDENT SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED
SOIL CONDITIONS IN MANY AREAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS...EXPECT SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AGAIN...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING EXPECTED IN COUPLE OF SPOTS.

THEN...THE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURFACE LOW. THIS
SECOND AND MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL OR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA MONDAY...THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS
AROUND AND MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF VERY DEEP...MOIST
AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR WITH AN ELONGATED THETA E RIDGE...WILL BE
ADVECTED NORTHEAST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT STRUNG OUT
AND IN PATCHES...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...SHOULD MAKE FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER AND MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS WE
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST.


Above is what the folks of the NWS in San Juan analize all about what is going on and will occur in the Caribbean.

[msbee]

lots of interesting weather to watch.
we had about 1 inch of nice rain last night.
a steady light rain that lasted a few hours and really soaked in.....just the kind of rain my garden likes.
This morning so far still overcast.
we have very little wind.

[cycloneye]

lots of interesting weather to watch.
we had about 1 inch of nice rain last night.
a steady light rain that lasted a few hours and really soaked in.....just the kind of rain my garden likes.
This morning so far still overcast.
we have very little wind.

In San Juan it is also overcast with little wind.Not much rain in the overnight hours.But I expect the rains to return by the afternoon.But my eyes are peeled way down there in the SW Caribbean to see what happens with that broad low pressure although if you ask me I dont expect Arlene to form from that mess.

[msbee]

I don't think Arlene will form either.
I just hope it does not cause real problems for DR and Haiti.

[cycloneye]

As I said this morning that it was going to rain this afternoon well it is raining in San Juan and in other parts of the island due to the orografic effects combined with the trough that is nearby.I hope that the big convective area that is South of Hispanola makes it here.Still watching 91L but right now nothing is going on there that may open eyebrows.