Headings/Angles for Coastal Impact (10am Central update)

[drezee]

I am sorry to rain on your parade, but you should place a disclaimer on this. Your calculations are wrong!

0.8N and 0.6W is not 327degs!!!
right triangle: 3 4 5
Use this:

sin (Angle) = 0.8 / 1.0 = 53.2degs

270 + 53.2 = 323.2 angle of movement

Please redo all your calculations before you resume.

That was the method I was using at first, before someone noted that a degree of longitude is less than a degree of latitude (69.17 statute miles for a degree of latitude versus 59.96 miles for a degree of longitude). Using your method would place the extrapolated point of landfall a good bit west of where it is shown/estimated on the map.

Woohoo, 100th post!

Indeed, I spoke too soon

[mtm4319]

mtm4319..is that a overlay you are using that updated automatically or did you manually imput those to great that graphic?

I'm just putting placemarks where each NHC advisory puts it.

http://tinypic.com/6zmsdc.jpg
(The file is a bit too big to display on this board, as it's almost a full computer screen)

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

10pm Central time update

As of 10pm Central time, the 7-hour motion of Dennis (there was no new 4pm position estimate) was 0.9 degrees North and 0.7 degrees West (a heading of 326.0 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 10pm Central time was 26.6 N and 85.3 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (10pm Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

318.9 Gulfport, MS
320.6 Biloxi, MS
323.0 Pascagoula, MS
324.7 MS/AL state line
326.6 Fort Gaines, AL
330.4 Gulf Shores, AL
332.4 AL/FL state line
338.1 Pensacola Beach, FL
343.5 Fort Walton Beach, FL
344.7 Destin, FL

The current 7-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore near Fort Gaines, AL -- near the east end of Dauphin Island.

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight -- and in fact seems to be occurring as we speak.

[mtm4319]

[rtd2]

worth SAYING again! AWESOME WORK...

[rtd2]

worth SAYING again! AWESOME WORK...

[HurryKane]

May I bear your children? This is awesome.

[mtm4319]

The 11pm update was canceled due to our family putting up plywood.

12am Central time update

As of 12am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 0.9 degrees North and 0.7 degrees West (a heading of 326.0 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 12am Central time was 27.0 N and 85.6 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (12am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

318.1 Gulfport, MS
319.9 Biloxi, MS
322.6 Pascagoula, MS
324.4 MS/AL state line
326.5 Fort Gaines, AL
330.9 Gulf Shores, AL
333.1 AL/FL state line
339.6 Pensacola Beach, FL
345.7 Fort Walton Beach, FL
347.0 Destin, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore near Fort Gaines, AL -- near the east end of Dauphin Island.

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight -- and in fact seems to be occurring as we speak.

[Ixolib]

Very cool stuff. Are you still sticking by your guns on this point?

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight -- and in fact seems to be occurring as we speak.

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

Very cool stuff. Are you still sticking by your guns on this point?

Keep in mind, a NNW (or 330-degree heading) is expected to gradually occur overnight -- and in fact seems to be occurring as we speak.

I said that when the rolling average heading increased from 323 to 327, but it's been 326 for the past two (well, at least two out of three) averages. If it doesn't start increasing again, I might be more inclined to say it's taking a 325 route.

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

1am Central time update

As of 1am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.0 degrees North and 0.8 degrees West (a heading of 325.3 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 1am Central time was 27.2 N and 85.8 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (1am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

318.0 Gulfport, MS
320.0 Biloxi, MS
322.8 Pascagoula, MS
324.8 MS/AL state line
327.1 Fort Gaines, AL
331.8 Gulf Shores, AL
334.2 AL/FL state line
341.2 Pensacola Beach, FL
347.8 Fort Walton Beach, FL
349.2 Destin, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between the MS/AL state line Fort Gaines, AL -- somewhere on Dauphin Island.

I'm backing off the 330 heading... this is going 325 for sure.

[mtm4319]

(My apologies, I loaded the wrong graphic at first)

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

2am Central time update

As of 2am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.1 degrees North and 0.8 degrees West (a heading of 327.8 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 2am Central time was 27.4 N and 85.9 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (2am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

317.0 Gulfport, MS
319.1 Biloxi, MS
322.0 Pascagoula, MS
324.1 MS/AL state line
326.5 Fort Gaines, AL
331.4 Gulf Shores, AL
334.0 AL/FL state line
341.5 Pensacola Beach, FL
348.6 Fort Walton Beach, FL
350.1 Destin, FL


The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between Fort Gaines, AL and Gulf Shores, AL -- in the vicinity of Mobile Bay.

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

3am Central time update

As of 3am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.1 degrees North and 0.8 degrees West (a heading of 327.8 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 3am Central time was 27.6 N and 86.0 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (3am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

316.0 Gulfport, MS
318.1 Biloxi, MS
321.1 Pascagoula, MS
323.3 MS/AL state line
325.8 Fort Gaines, AL
331.1 Gulf Shores, AL
333.8 AL/FL state line
341.8 Pensacola Beach, FL
349.5 Fort Walton Beach, FL
351.2 Destin, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore between Fort Gaines, AL and Gulf Shores, AL -- in the vicinity of Mobile Bay.

[mtm4319]

I might do one more update for the next full advisory at 4am.

[Wnghs2007]

BTW, The New 4 AM EDT, 3 AM CDT position is at 27.6 North, 86. 0 West

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA AND TALLAHASSEE
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

[mtm4319]

BTW, The New 4 AM EDT, 3 AM CDT position is at 27.6 North, 86. 0 West

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA AND TALLAHASSEE
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

Thanks. I was using those coordinates, just forgot to update them on the text. (I copy and paste each hour and overwrite the coordinates and times, headings, etc. when needed.)

[rtd2]

Looking FWD. to Next update!