Recon Reports

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jpigott
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#41 Postby jpigott » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:38 am

gkrangers wrote:
jpigott wrote:this is ridiculous, we have potentially the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall on the northern gulf coast and we can't get any recon data with this thing within hours of landfall
No, its nothing like Camille.


technically specaking Camille was a central gulf coast landfall. I'll specifiy - Dennis will likely be the strongest hurrincane to make land fall on MS-AL-FLpanhandle portion of gulf coast
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Scorpion

#42 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:38 am

Interesting, it looks better now. But the 7 mb pressure jump indicates he is falling apart.
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#43 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:41 am

The pressure is extrapolated.
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#44 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:42 am

He really looks better on sateliite... I'm guessing the pressure rise was from when he looked ragged earlier.
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#45 Postby shawn67 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:43 am

Scorpion wrote:Interesting, it looks better now. But the 7 mb pressure jump indicates he is falling apart.


Falling Apart???? I think it just took a break.
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logybogy

#46 Postby logybogy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:44 am

That 937MB drop was 13:50Z.

How long ago was that?
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#47 Postby shawn67 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:46 am

logybogy wrote:That 937MB drop was 13:50Z.

How long ago was that?


Almost 2 hours ago
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#48 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:47 am

shawn67 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Interesting, it looks better now. But the 7 mb pressure jump indicates he is falling apart.


Falling Apart???? I think it just took a break.

I'm sorry, it may be slightly weaker, but a 7 mb drop does not indicate it is falling apart.
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#49 Postby x-y-no » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:47 am

Pressure is going up - that's a slightly hopeful sign.
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#50 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:50 am

Thats report was when the storm was being elongated from south to north. In also when the storm was going through its EWRC. It looks to be quickly reoreganizing. Expect pressures to fall back into the lower 930s.
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Scorpion

#51 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:51 am

I agree. That report is 2 hours old?? We need current info now!
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#52 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:55 am

Scorpion wrote:Interesting, it looks better now. But the 7 mb pressure jump indicates he is falling apart.


That's an exaggeration.
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#53 Postby jpigott » Sun Jul 10, 2005 10:56 am

how in the world with all the technology we have can we not get current recon. If that 937 pressure measure is indeed 2 hours old i would think pressures would currently be lower based on current sat presentation. Don't get me wrong those hurricane hunters do absolutlely amazing work and i am personally grateful, but when i hear steve lyons talking about a 7mb pressure increase that is 2 hours old, this is potentially misleading
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Scorpion

#54 Postby Scorpion » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:00 am

I agree. Looking much better now and the eye is contracting.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#55 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:02 am

People take this storm very seriously. The latest satellite shows that the inner eye is fading. At the same time dark reds are firing around the new eye. The outflow is pushing outward fast out of the northeast quad. It should take take some time to regain what it had last night. But with an 6 hours it should be every bit as powerful. We are looking at a possible bombing hurricane as it moves inland....
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#56 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:05 am

The 937 ob is not old... here is the corresponding dropsonde ob... it was taken during the 15Z hour... 11 AM EDT...

000

UZNT13 KNHC 101541

XXAA 60157 99293 70868 08196 99937 32409 32010 00/// ///// /////

92112 25806 32013 85857 22410 01012 70549 19235 01524 88999 77999

31313 09608 81513

61616 AF307 WX04A DENNIS03 OB 05

62626 EYE SPL 2926N08680W 1517 MBL WND 32513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 03

010 936721 WL150 32012 081 =

XXBB 60158 99293 70868 08196 00937 32409 11935 31409 22933 26607

33932 26006 44850 22410 55807 21019 66718 21659 77706 22250 88696

17025

21212 00937 32010 11912 32514 22863 36010 33850 01012 44799 03511

55780 06516 66733 07517 77721 09514 88696 01028

31313 09608 81513

61616 AF307 WX04A DENNIS03 OB 05

62626 EYE SPL 2926N08680W 1517 MBL WND 32513 AEV 20507 DLM WND 03

010 936721 WL150 32012 081 =
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#57 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:13 am

Decode of subsequent eyewall dropsonde

Observation Number: 07
Time: 1545Z
Position: 29.3 North 86.7 West
Sea Level Pressure: 948 millibars
surface winds: 115 knots // 025
925 millibar height: 215 meters
925 millibar winds: 127 knots // 050
850 millibar height: 957 meters
850 millibar winds: 115 knots // 090
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#58 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:25 am

In the words of Christopher Walken...


"Gotta... have more Recon!!! Need... more recon baby!!!"
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Lebowsky

#59 Postby Lebowsky » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:32 am

"I've got a fever and more recon is the only cure!"
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#60 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 11:44 am

URNT12 KNHC 101638 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/16:17:50Z
B. 29 deg 29 min N
086 deg 51 min W
C. NA mb 2567 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 052 deg 094 kt
G. 314 deg 005 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 12 C/ 3048 m
J. 21 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF307 WX04A DENNIS03 OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 127 KT NE QUAD 15:16:30 Z
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