JB this morn....

[jimbo]

From the Accuweather archives of Bastardi posts. Of course the 'Evil Emporer' Ken Reeves may have let him edit these. I see no mention of Emily being an East Coast storm, just the 'no hit wonder' Frankiln maybe finding a way there.

07/10/05


2.) Major prolonged spell of above-normal temps to rule from the southern Rockies through the Lakes and into the Northeast. Shallow penetrations of cool air at best next week to two weeks perhaps beyond. Summer hits its stride and sprints past anything we have seen temperaturewise in many a year, overall.

3.) Example: Over the next two weeks, the Lakes to the Northeast challenge late-August 2002 anomalies.

4.) New England and the Northeast have heat beaten back for a couple days midweek, then it comes to stay.

5.) Dennis sits and spins and reversed drought and temp anomoly over lower and mid-Mississippi Valley may play pivotal role in next hurricane threat

6.) Ooops, did I say that? Actually, there are two threats. The first is gaining convection near 12 and 40. The second will follow. The path with the first may be north of Dennis to near 80 west, and a system could get into the Gulf. There is a much bigger Bermuda high to the north, so models should not have a quick recurve problem as they did with Dennis.

7.) Areas north of 40 north in the corn belt are hard pressed to get much rain, but oh boy for soy - rust spores galore may be in store.

8.) Analogs of '33, '95 and '54 all have their merit. The new hurricane forecast will be online in around ten days. Hint: Nevermind, I can't answer the email I get now.

9.) Pattern overview and zones are in the archives.





07/11/05

TROPICS: Tropical cyclone number 5 is already at storm intensity and looks to me to be a Caribbean to perhaps Gulf storm. Once again, U.S. models are too far north early as they have been with almost every system for the past kajillion years in the tropical Atlantic, until the system becomes big and starts recurving. Now that I can see where it's developing, I expect a path similar in latitude to Dennis, but I think this is aiming down the road for the untouched part of the Gulf. So the gut call is this may be a west of 90 storm, which of course would include it slamming Central America, though the development of the cross-equatorial trof west of South America is an argument for a northwestward turn that means more fun and games for the Gulf. It's as if there is a spray gun that is going back and forth, but should move northward with time.

Part of my bullishness on the more southward track, besides fundamental hate for the GFS in that area of the world, is that there is a system behind it, and when there are two systems in a row, the second one usually is a bit farther north. If one looks at the calls with all the storms from the east, one has found me too far north before development occurs. However, this is coming off fairly far north, and one thing I am looking for is the Carolina hurricane this year. In fact, one of the highlights of the updated hurricane forecast will be to shift the emphasis from where it has been toward there. I am revealing this now because I am worried a week from now what may be Franklin is actually short cutting for them. Besides the '33 and '95 shortcut analogs (granted, Felix did not make it), I have received another gem of an email, this time from Bermuda. The writer was saying how bad the drought is out there, and it's something that hasn't been that bad since the mid-50s. I think their only way out this year is with tropical systems. But in '54 and '55, if we add those in as analogs, we find four hurricanes in a two-year stretch. But look, if we simply look at the water profile and the overall pattern, one can easily say, no joke, it's like the whole coast is under the gun. In any case, I am throwing out these hints as more and more of this gets done. I like my forecasts to evolve for the loyal reader, and to not suddenly appear, so that when they come out, it's not "where did that come from?"