TD 10 in GOM?

vacanechaser · #41 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:11 pm

pressure is too high right now, plus the upper low to its north is in no hurry to move out either... doubt anything will come of this...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurrciane Intercept Research Team

#42 Postby **baygirl_1** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:12 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROF LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LINGERS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE TROF OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROF...ALONG WITH A LOW JUST ALOFT...WILL LIKEWISE MEANDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...PROMOTING HIGH POPS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BERMUDA RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN MEANWHILE...AND BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF SHIFTING TO OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE TROF SHIFTS WESTWARD IN TANDEM AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PROMOTE A MORE CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29

It seems the low is going to move westward in response to the high moving back in. So, the low could still be hanging out in the west Gulf next week.

#43 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:14 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 052110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TWO at 5:30 PM mentions GOM.

vacanechaser · #44 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ABNT20 KNHC 052110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TWO at 5:30 PM mentions GOM.

And then again I could be an idiot and be wrong.... LOL... :lol:

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#45 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:16 pm

Well at least they dont deny development possibilities.

<RICKY>

#46 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ABNT20 KNHC 052110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
COASTS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FORECASTER BEVEN

TWO at 5:30 PM mentions GOM.

NHC has spoken and to those who said nothing was there.

So it gives us something to look at this weekend instead of
waiting for something to travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

#47 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:18 pm

I strongly encourage reading the Alicia report to anyone concerned with this potential system.

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim01.gif[/img]

[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1983/alicia/prelim02.gif[/img][/quote]

johngaltfla · #48 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:21 pm

An interesting read here about a storm on the Northern GOM coast....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/hu ... r_1943.htm

#49 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:24 pm

johngaltfla wrote:An interesting read here about a storm no the Northern GOM coast....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/hu ... r_1943.htm

Now THAT is a new one for me. Thanks for the post!!

But the comparisons to Alicia are ominous...

#50 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:27 pm

Steve wrote:>>how many aggies does it take to locate a center?

A few less than it takes to build a bonfire maybe?

*doh*

Anyway, we've been watching this area since last Saturday as a surface trof has been draped 60 miles either side of the Gulf Coast. Surface lows have formed and existed short-term between south of Morgan City and south of Pensacola almost every day. Today's is due south of the AL/FL line and shows up @ 1017mb @ 1pm CDT.

Steve

Yeah Steve, been watching it since then too, actually since Thursday a week ago, but something tells me this low may be different. That quickscat is the tightest one all week.

#51 Postby **Steve** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:29 pm

>>NHC has spoken and to those who said nothing was there.
So it gives us something to look at this weekend instead of
waiting for something to travel thousands of miles across the Atlantic.

What do you mean something to look at this weekend? I've been waiting to see something since Bastardi mentioned the setup last Wed. or Thurs. About the only thing I've seen has been rain almost every day.

But yeah, for those who said nothing was there, they probably don't live in the area anyway

Steve

johngaltfla · #52 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:30 pm

jschlitz wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:An interesting read here about a storm no the Northern GOM coast....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/hu ... r_1943.htm

Now THAT is a new one for me. Thanks for the post!!

But the comparisons to Alicia are ominous...

Anytime! I try to relate to storms in similar positions/areas because in this season of whacked out climatology, we're all going to have to dig for information just to determine possibilities for how/when/where storms will develop, strengthen and go.

:eek:

jax · #53 Postby **jax** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:34 pm

what's curiuous is that the TWO doesn't say it's regular
"Delevopment, IF ANY, will be slow to occur...

it say "Development will be slow to occur"

hmmm doesn't mention direction either...

#54 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:35 pm

johngaltfla wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:An interesting read here about a storm no the Northern GOM coast....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/hu ... r_1943.htm

Now THAT is a new one for me. Thanks for the post!!

But the comparisons to Alicia are ominous...

Anytime! I try to relate to storms in similar positions/areas because in this season of whacked out climatology, we're all going to have to dig for information just to determine possibilities for how/when/where storms will develop, strengthen and go.

I completely agree with you there! The old "'I' storms usually do this" kinds of rules don't hold water this year...I think NHC said it best themselves during Emily about climo. not mattering this year..who was it Lawrence I think??

#55 Postby **micktooth** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:44 pm

It almost looks like it is already inland, slightly north of Pensacola on radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kevx.shtml

#56 Postby **BreinLa** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:45 pm

You guys that have been watching this since Last week, great job. thanks for watching for us. Remember GOM storms never do what they are supposed to do lol

johngaltfla · #57 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:48 pm

BreinLa wrote:You guys that have been watching this since Last week, great job. thanks for watching for us. Remember GOM storms never do what they are supposed to do lol

Believe me. Those of us that live on the GOM know that ALL TO WELL!!! :lol:

ROCK · #58 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:51 pm

Looks from vis loop that the low is mostly over land / maybe half on half off, moving to the SW. If it stays the course, it could make it back into the GOM by tonight. Something to watch.....

johngaltfla · #59 Postby **johngaltfla** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:53 pm

ROCK wrote:Looks from vis loop that the low is mostly over land / maybe half on half off, moving to the SW. If it stays the course, it could make it back into the GOM by tonight. Something to watch.....

If you'd click on the link in my posting up a few about the 1943 storm, you'd see why it's something to watch.....

KatDaddy · #60 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Aug 05, 2005 4:56 pm

Doubt anything will develop unless another weak low forms S of LA Coast over the next few days.

Here is the Accu-Weather blurb:

Currently, a weak upper-level low is situated over southern Mississippi-southern Alabama. There are indications that a surface circulation is trying to develop. Every once in a while, these types of systems can develop into something more significant. It is an area to watch over the next few days.

TD 10 in GOM?

Who is online