TD 10...Back Again

[gatorcane]

I hope it doesn't reform...if it does, it looks like it will pose the most threat to the E. coast of Florida since last year's storms.

[jabber]

so reformation still possible in a few days???????????????????

I would say that its possible.

[hurricanefloyd5]

im going to try and have people that are coming to my school reunion and bring something to donate so i can call redcross so they can give the donated stuff to area's like PUNTA GORDA and other area's around there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SouthFloridawx]

the remains of td 10 aren't looking too bad... we'll have to watch this one. All the models still picking up on it.

[MWatkins]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Its alright MW...With the Vigerious LLC on Quickstat I would agree..I think your End game is what really counts anyway...i still think it will go eventually..

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

Its OK MW with that vigeous LLc who can blame you ...YOur End game will be the only thing that matters. I still see this thing going when the Shear Abates..

[jabber]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Mike at what point west (if it survives) does the enviorment look to relax a bit, around 55?




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18Z models of the UKMET takes TD10 further and further west towards the FL east coast while the 18Z GFDL model dissipates the remnants of TD10 very quickly. The other 18Z models arent out just yet.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like our skeleton is floating south of Due west!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Would explain the models shifting west..

[WeatherEmperor]

looks like our skeleton is floating south of Due west!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Would explain the models shifting west..

lol that Floater is from the EPAC. There is no floater on the remnants of TD10 just yet.

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

looks like our skeleton is floating south of Due west!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Would explain the models shifting west..

That's Fernanda.

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like our skeleton is floating south of Due west!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Would explain the models shifting west..

lol that Floater is from the EPAC. There is no floater on the remnants of TD10 just yet.

<RICKY>

Ohh Sh!t...Fooled me!

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[shaggy]

The 18Z models of the UKMET takes TD10 further and further west towards the FL east coast while the 18Z GFDL model dissipates the remnants of TD10 very quickly. The other 18Z models arent out just yet.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

No models take it further west towards the Fl east coast the models take it west but are all still east of the bahamas which leaves plenty of room to turn out and avoid florida and not to mention that this low will likely NOT survive another 24-48 hrs until conditions improve

[vacanechaser]

Well, I will say this, Irene went through the same thing and look at what she did finally... T.D. 10 still has a good chance in a day or 2... It seems that this year, so far, the models keep losing them and then they go on to develop further west... The tropics want to produce IMO, but the shear is just to much right now... The naked LLC have been pretty strong to survive some of the shear and dry air they have been through... Keeps hope alive!! lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Way to go Watkins!!! hows that limb your hanging from??? lol... J/J


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep. Looks like the limb just broke off the tree. I crawled too far out.

To use a poker analogy...looks like I am drawing dead. No way this even gets close to TD status in the next 24-36 hours...the environment is as hostile as ever and the LLC is completely exposed well southwest of what is left over from the convection.

I haven't had a very good few days...glad all of my bad calls are happening with systems well away from land.

MW

Dont worry Mike... I said Irene was headed for Wilmington!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[TS Zack]

Models are all wrong at this point. Look at the heading they have on it from the start. They are treating this system like it is a organized cyclone, which it isn't.

This thing will not head out to sea, that is for sure.

[MWatkins]

Well, I will say this, Irene went through the same thing and look at what she did finally... T.D. 10 still has a good chance in a day or 2... It seems that this year, so far, the models keep losing them and then they go on to develop further west... The tropics want to produce IMO, but the shear is just to much right now... The naked LLC have been pretty strong to survive some of the shear and dry air they have been through... Keeps hope alive!! lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Looking at the model guidance from 12Z…it looks like that upper trough is forecast to split into upper lows to the NE and WSW of the system…with the dominant ULL to the NE and a secondary upper system in the Caribbean. If this verifies while the remnants of TD10 maintains a closed circulation at the surface it could go ahead and get a chance at a comeback.

If the shear persists ain't nothin' comin' back nohow.

MW

[hurricanetrack]

Then it's a race against time....now even the UKMET "likes" it and has it at ~71 west as a "moderate" cyclone many days from now. So, which will win out, shear or LLC?

[elysium]

It's going through shear; more shear than I thought; and when looking at TD 10 it does look like it could dissipate. However, when you look closely, you'll see that the center is in an environment that has less shear than the northern portion of this system. It's clear that it won't get blown out by the shear at the center.

Does anyone have anything indicating that TD 10 will slowdown or stall out north of Puerto Rico/ Dominican Republic? The steering currents shutdown for 24 hrs at about the time it reaches that area.