TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jasons2k]

To me the LLC looks like it's moving due W, but last few frames it's getting obscured by convective tops.

[cajungal]

Why don't we just call it Ivan?

Leave my uncle out of this. He had enough picking on last year in his ity bitty town of Kiln, MS. Just joking. :roflmaso:

[Thunder44]

Hope they decide to move the floater soon

I do too.

I sent an email this morning to them to move both floaters to 97L and 99L.

[dwg71]

The ULL is also ushering some dry air, it will be a collision of sorts.

[TS Zack]

The ULL is also ushering some dry air, it will be a collision of sorts.

LOL

[dwg71]

It appears to have picked up forward speed and is on a b-line for Grand Bahama...

Still looks like a fairly slow WNW motion in the general direction of Andros Island to me.

Geography snafu, we are talking about same Island. You can tell that when leaving Houston, I dont vacation any further east than WDW.

[chadtm80]

Hope they decide to move the floater soon

I do too.

I sent an email this morning to them to move both floaters to 97L and 99L.

97L is to far East... You can forget that one for now

[Javlin]

I brought that up on the last thread that it appears to me that the system can not go any further N much besause of the ULL.It might be providing some vent now more than shesr.The other thing I see something over the SE CONUS I wish someone could inform as to what it is.It is going CW from TX/LA to E/FL to the Carolinas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Brent]

Why don't we just call it Ivan?

Leave my uncle out of this. He had enough picking on last year in his ity bitty town of Kiln, MS. Just joking. :roflmaso:

HAHA.

[chris_fit]

I brought that up on the last thread that it appears to me that the system can not go any further N much besause of the ULL.It might be providing some vent now more than shesr.The other thing I see something over the SE CONUS I wish someone could inform as to what it is.It is going CW from TX/LA to E/FL to the Carolinas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Wouldn't that ULL create a nice weakness in the ridge we see over the SE in that loop?

[clfenwi]

I brought that up on the last thread that it appears to me that the system can not go any further N much besause of the ULL.It might be providing some vent now more than shesr.The other thing I see something over the SE CONUS I wish someone could inform as to what it is.It is going CW from TX/LA to E/FL to the Carolinas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It's an upper level anti-cyclone (high) ... clearest depiction of it is in the GFS' 300 mb analysis:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

see also, the RUC analysis

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_300.gif

[x-y-no]

12z GFS stalls it over SFL through Saturday, than moves it north up the peninsula.

Mostly a big rain even if that verifies, but I still think it gets into the Gulf where it has a chance to intensify again.

[bvigal]

Hope they decide to move the floater soon

I do too.

I sent an email this morning to them to move both floaters to 97L and 99L.

I just wrote... "I have moved Floater #1 to 99L, and Floater #2 to 97L. Stay safe..."

[Javlin]

I brought that up on the last thread that it appears to me that the system can not go any further N much besause of the ULL.It might be providing some vent now more than shesr.The other thing I see something over the SE CONUS I wish someone could inform as to what it is.It is going CW from TX/LA to E/FL to the Carolinas.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

It's an upper level anti-cyclone (high) ... clearest depiction of it is in the GFS' 300 mb analysis:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

see also, the RUC analysis

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_300.gif

So it is a high correct?Should not that keep it W then.The question about the ULL if I am not mistaken once a low moves through it fills back up with high pressures rather quickly.Ever been through a cane the next day hot a sunny.

[artist]

girl - you must have ALOT of pull!

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

can someone post the visible floater link

[Recurve]

Hmm, so we have a developing system within a few hundred miles of south florida, with some of the hottest water on the planet, low shear and steering currents that aren't going to take it out to sea. Seems the ULL to the northwest might be the only inhibiting factor?

Too bad the only buoy is at Settlement Point Grand Bahama.

Local NWS offices are not mentioning the system in this morning's discussions. The only current discussion is this morning's TWD:

Code: Select all

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N77W NE OVER E CUBA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 27N72W MOVING NW 5-10 KT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT PARTICULARLY SHARP...AND THE SYSTEM IS COLLOCATED BENEATH
A MID/UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N73W WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO BE
MOVING W TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PRIMARILY W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND TWO LARGE AREAS SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 120
NM OF LINE FROM JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W TO 22N73W NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND A SECOND AREA WITHIN 120 NM NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W
TO THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. DRY AIR
ALOFT IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE UPPER LOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE
N...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WITH THE
LOW SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Latest steering currents: (cropped image from Steering Layer : 700-850 hPa)

[cycloneye]

[Recurve]

[Nevermind -- the posted image changed]