Strong trough saving upper Texas/LA coasts Again???

[duris]

No TX or LA, but here's the SFWD's updated map:Steve

Three out of eight models agree: Jefferson Parish begins evacuations this weekend. Steve, I'll race you to the Abita at Sav-A-Center. (Just in case y'know).

[Stormcenter]

No TX or LA, but here's the SFWD's updated map:



Steve

Getting closer though.

[skysummit]

Gosh...if those western models hold true, with those SST's in the gulf and just about perfect conditions, Katrina could become one hell of a storm.

[Portastorm]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

Uh, it isn't over yet. No, I don't think it is going to Texas, but I NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics.

And I agree that if it did make it this far West we would be looking at a very strong, probably CAT 4, Hurricane. *vb puts portastorm and opera ghost out in his front yard!!!* for insurance.

With my record, I should be working for an insurance company! (Opera Ghost and HouTxMetro can join me).

All kidding aside, I know we hear this all the time in Texas but one of these years, we're due.

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, the models have really shifted to the west! Last night they were barely going into the gulf, looks like the NHC path will have to shift left also. I would not let my guard down if I lived in SE Louisiana, and I'll keeping an eye on Katrin too .

[LaBreeze]

That high pressure is holding tough - if we could just get rid of this oppressive heat!

[BayouVenteux]

Wow, the models have really shifted to the west! Last night they were barely going into the gulf, looks like the NHC path will have to shift left also. I would not let my guard down if I lived in SE Louisiana, and I'll keeping an eye on Katrin too .

Considering how poorly the trough and associated "front" were forecasted last week - remember the talk of lower humidities and a front making it offshore? - I've been taking the consensus quick right hook scenario with a grain of salt. Now it looks as though the models may be starting to come a little more in line with reality as a more gradual turn toward the west central Florida panhandle seems to be showing up again. I noticed the newest run of the trusty Euro is depicting Katrina making landfall around the Pensacola to FWB region.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5082512!!/


Guess we'll all sit-n-wait for the next serving of fresh waffles!

[skysummit]

Yea, and Bob Breck said last night there is no way this could get into the gulf......if by some SMALL chance it does, it'll continue west and into Mexico. Where you at now Bobby?????

[LAwxrgal]

The timing and strength of this trough is absolutely EVERYTHING. These models are going to continue to flip-flop.

IMO the further west she goes the stronger she will be. And under no circumstances would we want her to cross that warm-water eddy before landfall. She could intensify pretty quickly.

[Stormtrack]

It still could happen, it's still early.

Above the envelope storms hitting Texas is pretty rare,although certainly not impossible. I wonder when was the last time? I can't remember any, although Andrew gave us a good scare.

I did a search on storms moving into the GOM from the north coast of Cuba and points north. There were 9 landfalling storms along the Texas coast since the 1850's...and a couple that went into Mexico.

TS Greta in 1970 was the last time. Now I'm wondering when was the last time if ever one crossed Florida and then hit Texas. I'm not curious enough to try to track it down though.

[jkt21787]

Birmingham NWS says NOT SO FAST for you Texans...
NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS TIME FRAME IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK
OF KATRINA. MODELS STILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. PERSONALLY...I DON'T
THINK THE NORTHERN GULF IS UNDER THE GUN AT THE MOMENT WITH A 595
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. RIDGE DOES SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT NOT FAR
ENOUGH TO THREATEN MUCH OF ALABAMA. ONE OF 2 SOLUTIONS LOOKS MORE
LIKELY...THE STORM STAYING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND IMPACTING SOUTH
TEXAS...OR A QUICK RE-CURVE ACROSS CENTRAL FL (GOD BLESS PUNTA
GORDA) AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. LOTS OF QUESTIONS HERE...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

[Portastorm]

I'm kinda surprised that a NWS forecast discussion would suggest anything so widely divergent from NHC official reasoning, regardless of whether or not it was a model run scenario. This is a bold statement.

[Stormcenter]

I'm kinda surprised that a NWS forecast discussion would suggest anything so widely divergent from NHC official reasoning, regardless of whether or not it was a model run scenario. This is a bold statement.

Maybe they have inside scoop from the NHC already.

[ROCK]

If this had gone to Texas...I have little doubt it would have been a Category 4.

No doubt in my mind either. Would've been a disaster...

I guess I'm missing the points of statements like this... If this would have happend..., if that would have happend. All storms would become cat 5 if all factors are perfect and it takes the perfect path, but a major hurricane is very rare, because conditions and circumstances aren't perfect very often.

I'm not bashing, I'm just trying to understand the reasoning for these statments. If Irene would have become a cat 5 and turned left into NYC, it would have been devastating, but it didn't happen.

Also, it wasn't ever forecast to be a cat 4 or go anywhere near tx. So, it doesnt seem to apply. Now if you said good thing storm X dropped from cat 4 to cat 1 jsut before landfall or it could have been disasterous, then I can see that.

You brought this up in a post Mike made a couple of days back. Its an opinion for the love of god. I am sure there is a reason to make such a statement. Cat 5, yeah, you need perfect conditions. cat 4,well, you dont need as perfect conditions as a cat 5 now do you? SST's are high, havent seen a shear map but if Mike says it could have been a cat 4 if KAT took a more western track then I would but my money on that....

And by the way the the earth is round......please lets debate that since your in the mood......

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

Listen Duck, I'll give y'all a heads up right now. I'm going to North Carolina in late September for my niece's wedding. You know what that means? Look out Texas! (I won't be here ...)

What did Uncle Ben tell Peter Parker in Spiderman? "With great power, comes great responsibility." Some days, it's depressing being THE DEFLECTOR

DOGGONIT, Porta!!! Git yer butt back here right now!!!

[southerngale]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

Listen Duck, I'll give y'all a heads up right now. I'm going to North Carolina in late September for my niece's wedding. You know what that means? Look out Texas! (I won't be here ...)

What did Uncle Ben tell Peter Parker in Spiderman? "With great power, comes great responsibility." Some days, it's depressing being THE DEFLECTOR

DOGGONIT, Porta!!! Git yer butt back here right now!!!

What city? I'll drag him back, kicking and screaming.

[Portastorm]

Yup, Porta -- you, and self-professed hurricane repellant OperaGhost (Where is she these days?), are keeping us high and dry.

Listen Duck, I'll give y'all a heads up right now. I'm going to North Carolina in late September for my niece's wedding. You know what that means? Look out Texas! (I won't be here ...)

What did Uncle Ben tell Peter Parker in Spiderman? "With great power, comes great responsibility." Some days, it's depressing being THE DEFLECTOR

DOGGONIT, Porta!!! Git yer butt back here right now!!!

What city? I'll drag him back, kicking and screaming.

People ... people ... PLEASE ... calm down!

I am in Houston right now. This city is safe as long as I am here. However, the bad news for SE Texas is, I am supposed to go back tomorrow to Austin and don't leave for North Carolina until NEXT week.

I will use my powers to the best of my ability to shunt Rita elsewhere (preferably Mexico ... sorry amigos y amigas).