Tropical Storm Maria,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:56 pm

Noah wrote:Its going north right, that the projected path..


Well the models have it moving NW into fish territory thanks to a weakness between the strong azores high and the more weaker bermuda one but it is too early to say for sure if it will enter that weakness as it is in a low latitud.
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#42 Postby Noah » Mon Aug 29, 2005 7:59 pm

When will we know you think?
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#43 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:00 pm

Noah wrote:When will we know you think?


In a couple of days.
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:18 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 0000 050830 1200 050831 0000 050831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 34.5W 10.9N 36.6W 12.7N 38.6W 14.7N 40.6W
BAMM 9.5N 34.5W 10.8N 36.6W 12.8N 38.6W 14.9N 40.5W
A98E 9.5N 34.5W 9.9N 38.4W 10.3N 41.7W 10.8N 44.3W
LBAR 9.5N 34.5W 10.6N 37.9W 11.8N 41.0W 12.9N 44.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 45KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 0000 050902 0000 050903 0000 050904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 42.6W 20.8N 46.6W 22.8N 49.6W 23.4N 52.4W
BAMM 17.3N 42.5W 21.4N 46.2W 24.5N 49.0W 26.1N 51.6W
A98E 11.5N 46.1W 12.5N 48.7W 13.9N 51.1W 16.0N 53.6W
LBAR 13.8N 47.2W 15.0N 52.0W 15.7N 54.9W 16.9N 56.8W
SHIP 68KTS 83KTS 92KTS 96KTS
DSHP 68KTS 83KTS 92KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 34.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 26.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models
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#45 Postby Noah » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:52 pm

I dont know what any of that means im a newbie :oops:
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#46 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 8:56 pm

Noah wrote:I dont know what any of that means im a newbie :oops:


Image

The numbers of latitud and longitud of the models are in graphic above.
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#47 Postby Noah » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:09 pm

Thank you :D
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Scorpion

#48 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:11 pm

Thats a rather big spread.
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#49 Postby StormWarning1 » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:19 pm

I don't see turning NW so fast, nor developing quite as fast either. It is hauling along at 20 knots, this should keep it from spinning up quickly, also should keep it on a more westward track.
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 29, 2005 9:43 pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

10:30 PM TWO.
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 6:14 am

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

5:30 AM TWO.
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looks like

#52 Postby Windtalker1 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 6:37 am

a few of the models think that the high is going to build back in.
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Re: looks like

#53 Postby Marilyn » Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:40 am

Windtalker1 wrote:a few of the models think that the high is going to build back in.
And what will that mean for this poss. storm? I hope Fish . The models are alittle too close for comfort for me .
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Re: looks like

#54 Postby Windtalker1 » Tue Aug 30, 2005 7:51 am

Marilyn wrote:
Windtalker1 wrote:a few of the models think that the high is going to build back in.
And what will that mean for this poss. storm? I hope Fish . The models are alittle too close for comfort for me .
If the high builds back in...there is more of a chance of a more westward movement....NOT GOOD
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#55 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:07 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050830 1200 050831 0000 050831 1200 050901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 36.9W 12.9N 39.3W 14.5N 41.7W 16.2N 44.1W
BAMM 11.5N 36.9W 13.0N 39.4W 14.8N 41.8W 16.6N 44.0W
A98E 11.5N 36.9W 12.9N 40.0W 14.1N 42.8W 15.6N 45.2W
LBAR 11.5N 36.9W 13.1N 39.8W 14.6N 42.4W 15.7N 45.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050901 1200 050902 1200 050903 1200 050904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 46.3W 19.3N 50.4W 20.4N 53.7W 21.5N 56.9W
BAMM 18.1N 46.1W 20.5N 50.0W 22.6N 53.7W 24.4N 57.1W
A98E 17.6N 47.0W 20.1N 51.0W 22.4N 54.5W 24.6N 57.2W
LBAR 16.5N 47.5W 17.8N 52.2W 20.2N 55.9W 22.2N 59.4W
SHIP 58KTS 71KTS 81KTS 89KTS
DSHP 58KTS 71KTS 81KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 36.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 30.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z models stilll dont show it is a depression.
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#56 Postby P.K. » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:12 am

To repeat what I just tried to post in that other thread:

The FNMOC page still has it listed as 91L.Invest even though the NRL page lists it as NoName. I also notice no areas apart from Katrina are mentioned on here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif
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#57 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:25 am

When the header of the models says Tropical Depression Fourteen then we got the TD but it still says Tropical Depression Invest.
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#58 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:32 am

After Katrina...we need a long break. Say a Year or two :cry: :cry:
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#59 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:34 am

The models have change a ton since yesterday, another TD10,TD13 or Dennis or Emily?
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#60 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:34 am

Rainband wrote:After Katrina...we need a long break. Say a Year or two :cry: :cry:


Agree 100%.But there is a problem Johnnathan.The peak of the season is 2 weeks away. :eek:
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