BOC/GOM Convection,Will Philippe form here?

[jasons2k]

I think we will be fine here in Southeast, Texas. This thing doesn't even have its act together yet and I don't see any possible way that this could blow up into a major hurricane (not enough time). A strong tropical storm or category 1 storm wouldn't be out of the question though.


Has there ever been a system form in the Bay of Campeche and later become a major hurricane?

Yes, someone up above just cited Opal as an example and there are numerous others. It has plenty of time if it moves Northward, rather than WNW like Gert. etc. So, that fact that it doesn't have its act together (yet) means little. Hurricanes don't originate from hurricanes; they originate from waves that 'don't have their act together'. It just moved off the Yucatan and into the BOC Campeche overnight and is continuing to build convection.

[HouTXmetro]

OH OH....... I see a circulation emerging near the convection that blew up over night. Look at 23N/93w area. Do you guys see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Cookiely]

OH OH....... I see a circulation emerging near the convection that blew up over night. Look at 23N/93w area. Do you guys see this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I just noticed this and the hair stood up on my neck. It looks ugly.

[susan]

I will watch our local news at noon and see it anyone even mentions this...

[jasons2k]

Maybe I'm blind, looked at Interactive GOES 12 with zoom, and I don't see a circulation there.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe I'm blind, looked at Interactive GOES 12 with zoom, and I don't see a circulation there.

LOL, look harder

[stormie_skies]

It doesn't look particularly healthy to my (very untrained) eye.

That said, anything can happen this year in the tropics. And waters over the west Gulf are very, very warm...

Normally I wouldn't mind the idea of seeing some LITTLE little action (TS - Cat 1), but not now....those poor evacuees wouldn't know what to do with themselves. The Gulf Coast does not need any more storms this year - our plate is already full. Someone bribe this baby with a plate full of enchiladas and a tropical storm sized margarita!

[tw861]

Maybe I'm blind, looked at Interactive GOES 12 with zoom, and I don't see a circulation there.

I think there is a broad circulation located east of Tampico. Somewhere around 21.0/94.0 or so. But it could be closer to that flare up southeast of Tampico also. When you look a a zoomed in shot( i'm using the NASA one) you can see the low cloud lines moving south along the NE Mexico coast, turning to the southeast to the south of Tampico, and they are moving from the southeast to northwest to the west of the Yucatan, and moving from east to west just off the extreme NW corner of the Yucatan.

I know that was a lot of directions, but the bottom line is there is possibly at least a broad area of low pressure somewhere between Merida and Tampico.

[Johnny]

Here's a better shot of the circulation off the Browsville radar.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbro.shtml

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the National Hurricane Center's current Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook, mentoning the disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1115 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES...
ON HURRICANE NATE...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
AND ON TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA...CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[HouTXmetro]

If that circulation near Brownsville forms that wouldn't be a bad thing. It will probably move quickly on into land and just be a rain event. The BOC slight hint of a circulation is more concerning if it develops.

[jeff]

Morning Quickscat overpass showed a very broad circulation...almost like a trough axis extending from SE of Brownsville into the western Bay of Campeche. Convective burst this morning has rapidly decreased and there is little overall organziation. Upper level will become increasingly favorable for development as TUTT moves west. If convection continues in the same general area then in the next few days something could develop over the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf. Steering pattern is generally toward the WNW to NW, but will become more NW to N over the next several days as high pressure moves eastward and a trough digs into the Rockies.

[jasons2k]

Morning Quickscat overpass showed a very broad circulation...almost like a trough axis extending from SE of Brownsville into the western Bay of Campeche. Convective burst this morning has rapidly decreased and there is little overall organziation. Upper level will become increasingly favorable for development as TUTT moves west. If convection continues in the same general area then in the next few days something could develop over the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf. Steering pattern is generally toward the WNW to NW, but will become more NW to N over the next several days as high pressure moves eastward and a trough digs into the Rockies.

Thanks Jeff - exactly. I saw all the low level movements described above (before it was posted...hehe) but can't define a tight LLC anywhere just yet. Too soon.

[Shoshana]

Has there ever been a system form in the Bay of Campeche and later become a major hurricane?

1999 Bret
1957 Audrey

[HouTXmetro]

Has there ever been a system form in the Bay of Campeche and later become a major hurricane?

1999 Bret
1957 Audrey

I heard Audrey nasty. My mother was a little girl when Audrey Hit. She is always telling me stories about her.

[susan]

Our local guys are "keeping an eye on it".. They don't seem overly concerned about this storm.

[no advance]

Brett was a powerhouse too. Killed a bunch of cows.

[SouthFloridawx]

[susan]

Brett was a Cat 4 or something..We were just lucky it hit in a very unpopulated area...

[deltadog03]

some of the most warmest waters in the gulf!!!