90L Invest SW Caribbean

[wxmann_91]

someone made an insightful comment in the first thread regarding this system that i keep wondering about... didn't wilma cool off these caribbean waters at ALL??

Yes they did, and that's why this may not be as strong as Wilma, even if it doesn't hit Central America.

But remember that any cooling was probably limited by the deepness of the warm waters of the Caribbean. And remember Wilma wasn't moving too slow, a stalled out TS upwells more than a 20 mph Cat 5.

[tampaflwx]

i imagine when the GFDL is run it will show something similar to the GFS, not too far off from the LBAR in this particular case. the LBAR is wack for most forecasts, but by chance/historical data it is right sometimes in long-term forecasting.

[beachbum_al]

Where are these coming from? It is like I go to work, come home, get the girls tuck in their beds, check email, then a few sites I enjoy going to and look here and there is something out in the carribean. Wow what a year.

[Ivanhater]

Where are these coming from? It is like I go to work, come home, get the girls tuck in their beds, check email, then a few sites I enjoy going to and look here and there is something out in the carribean. Wow what a year.

tell me about it!

[krysof]

does anyone have the shear charts to see if this thing has a good potential to develop

[tampaflwx]

what strikes me about this invest are a few things..

a) it's the 2005 atlantic season...we just saw alpha...
b) wilma
c) the expanse of clouds shows potential for a large encompassing system
d) historical tracks point towards moving north
e) models picking up the development of a formidable system
f) great banding features already
g) apparently the waters are still warm, low shear also

[cycloneye]

lets hope this slams into central america, otherwise, im afraid this might turn into a bad one

Ivan on the contrary let's hope it dissipates and not affect anyone as those folks in CentralAmerica dont need more than what Stan caused.

[rainydaze]

Tampaflwx asked:

someone made an insightful comment in the first thread regarding this system that i keep wondering about... didn't wilma cool off these caribbean waters at ALL??

Another poster asked the same question in the now locked SW Carribean thread. This answer to his question was posted by Derecho...a very interesting fact indeed...

It's takes a really long time for water to warm (or cool.)

And in the Western Carribean, the warm water is deep; any storm causing upwelling just upwells water as warm as that on the surface.

Actually, there's no reason that you couldn't have tropical systems in the Western Carribean year round routinely, OTHER than shear.

The water there is easily warm enough for tropical formation 12 months a year. The near continuous shear there from late November through May is the reason the season stops.

[tampaflwx]

hmm, very provocative indeed...

and regarding the gulf, wilma just breezed right through so i am assuming waters werent cooled much there either?

[wxman57]

i imagine when the GFDL is run it will show something similar to the GFS, not too far off from the LBAR in this particular case. the LBAR is wack for most forecasts, but by chance/historical data it is right sometimes in long-term forecasting.

Just so happens that LBAR is similar to GFS and ECMWF in this case. Both models did well with Wilma. Can't use the BAMs in this kind of situation (dealing with a moving upper trof axis in late season). Just ignore the BAMs and focus on the dynamic models. South Florida better watch out again, though I have a feeling that this one may pass south and east of Florida and head across the Bahamas if it develops.

[cjrciadt]

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/hh3.watl.jsmovie.html
Watch this pic, this invest is over poor potential. However where Wilma went sub900mb the potential is barely untouched.

[johngaltfla]

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/hh3.watl.jsmovie.html
Watch this pic, this invest is over poor potential. However where Wilma went sub900mb the potential is barely untouched.

Yes, but based on that animation, if 90L can get 200 miles north of it's current position, it's somewhat more favorable.

[conestogo_flood]

It's headed north?!

[tampaflwx]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 260206
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A VERY SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[angelwing]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html

[WeatherEmperor]

oh you have got to be kidding me. Cant this season just end already??

<RICKY>

[curtadams]

This is unreal...Beta?? I thought I would never see a season
like this in my lifetime...I said that in 2004...but then 2005 happened
So that's two once-in-a-lifetime years in a row...

That man who proposed that hurricane cycles may be embedded
in larger 1500-year cycles and that we are now exiting the 1500 year
lull and going into the 1500 year super-active cycle may have been on to
something. Not too much evidence of this at this point...but the next
several decades will tell...

Well, high activity won't tell us much, since global warming predicts the same thing. The relevant evidence will be paleo, probably records of surge into near-shore lakes + ocean levels.

[Ivanhater]

lets hope this slams into central america, otherwise, im afraid this might turn into a bad one

Ivan on the contrary let's hope it dissipates and not affect anyone as those folks in CentralAmerica dont need more than what Stan caused.

i meant go inland before it has a chance to develop, should of worded it better

[WxGuy1]

The Maximum Potential Intensity (which was developed by Dr. Emanuel at MIT) for the location of this Invest is <930mb and Cat 4+ -->


... Most storms don't reach their MPI, and only one storm I believe has deepened beyond its MPI (Lili). Wilma strengthened right to her MPI (which was just about 880mb). The MPI incorporates SST data and thermodynamic profiles from the GFS.