Met Dr. Steve Lyons: his thoughts on Katrina, etc.

[Pearl River]

I apologize to anyone I have offended here. But there comes a time when people that have been affected by this great disaster can only handle so much. We may never know how strong the winds were because there are no official reporting stations in downtown N.O. New Orleans proper was in the western eyewall or the weaker side. An updated Post Strom report from the NWS as of Feb. 17th shows a second wind gauge peak wind of 107 knots at Michoud in New Orleans East.

Too many people have lost everything they own and some far worse than that, have lost family and/or friends. People are entitled to their opinions, but there is a hard difference between fact and opinion. Too many people cannot grasp what happened from here to Mobile. They want to base their opinions on pictures and videos. It cannot be done. The devestation caused by Katrina has soldiers who have fought in Iraq shaking their heads and saying nothing there as far as destruction goes, compares to this. I want someone to tell my 83yo father, who lost everything he owns, that Katrina was not a strong hurricane. He will tell you that 2 trees thru his roof and 6ft of water was as devestating as they come and he only had a couple of shingles off his roof.

[Audrey2Katrina]

The videos that are shown do not show crap. I'm on my way back from NOLA east right now (yes I have internet in my truck), and there's TONS of wind damage. Are they still offering those tours for $35? Maybe a few more people should take them to see what they're not seeing.

Couldn't agree with you more, Sky.

[Audrey2Katrina]

FWIW, Dr. Lyons seemed to fully back the notion that most of New Orleans got Cat 1 sustained winds (and eastern Cat 2)...

I'd be willing to bet a dollar to a donut that Dr. Lyons also considers "New Orleans" pretty much the area around the French Quarter and Downtown districts... and when he says "eastern) is either not aware, or isn't considering that area extending all the way to the Rigolets--as that would "seem" to contradict his opinions of landfalling windspeeds, b/c the Rigolets weren't more than 5 miles from the eyewall of second landfall. I really doubt he means that area of the city, (which IS in the city). Don't want to assume what his thoughts on that actually are; but I feel confident that this is what he was speaking of. Very few people, when speaking of "New Orleans," think much beyond the CBD and environs around the quarter, and consider Gentilly/Ninth ward the "East"--certainly do NOT think of the eastern sections extending all the way to the Rigolets.

A2K

[skysummit]

Well put A2K.

[ROCK]

I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.

we had brick walls fall in Galveston with Rita. Didn't even see cat 1 winds...


EWG- I agree with all your points. Kat offically was a 3 at landfall. Wind damage seen in NO was not even close to sustained cat 3 winds.

[ROCK]

I apologize to anyone I have offended here. But there comes a time when people that have been affected by this great disaster can only handle so much. We may never know how strong the winds were because there are no official reporting stations in downtown N.O. New Orleans proper was in the western eyewall or the weaker side. An updated Post Strom report from the NWS as of Feb. 17th shows a second wind gauge peak wind of 107 knots at Michoud in New Orleans East.

Too many people have lost everything they own and some far worse than that, have lost family and/or friends. People are entitled to their opinions, but there is a hard difference between fact and opinion. Too many people cannot grasp what happened from here to Mobile. They want to base their opinions on pictures and videos. It cannot be done. The devestation caused by Katrina has soldiers who have fought in Iraq shaking their heads and saying nothing there as far as destruction goes, compares to this. I want someone to tell my 83yo father, who lost everything he owns, that Katrina was not a strong hurricane. He will tell you that 2 trees thru his roof and 6ft of water was as devestating as they come and he only had a couple of shingles off his roof.

I don't think anyone is downplaying how bad Katrina was in this thread. The point is and still remains that cat 2 winds with higher gusts will knock down trees. Those types of winds are pretty formidable.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm not debating the wind factor, but I can assure you that there was plenty of roof damage even over here in Mobile. I'd honestly estimate 3 out of 5 homes in my neighborhood (built in 1998) have new shingles. Throw in Ivan, and it's more like 5/5 in the past two years.

[jazzfan1247]

I'd be willing to bet a dollar to a donut that Dr. Lyons also considers "New Orleans" pretty much the area around the French Quarter and Downtown districts... and when he says "eastern) is either not aware, or isn't considering that area extending all the way to the Rigolets--as that would "seem" to contradict his opinions of landfalling windspeeds, b/c the Rigolets weren't more than 5 miles from the eyewall of second landfall. I really doubt he means that area of the city, (which IS in the city). Don't want to assume what his thoughts on that actually are; but I feel confident that this is what he was speaking of. Very few people, when speaking of "New Orleans," think much beyond the CBD and environs around the quarter, and consider Gentilly/Ninth ward the "East"--certainly do NOT think of the eastern sections extending all the way to the Rigolets.

A2K

That would be correct. I'm not sure exactly what the wording was, but I know "New Orleans" and "Cat 1 sustained winds" were in the same sentence, so I'm assuming he means downtown and not eastern. However, he didn't say anything to disagree with Cat 2 in eastern NO, so I'm assuming he would agree with this as well.

[Audrey2Katrina]

An updated Post Strom report from the NWS as of Feb. 17th shows a second wind gauge peak wind of 107 knots at Michoud in New Orleans East.

Yep, I noticed that too--the second Michoud Guage recorded this "peak wind", which oddly is the same term used for the "peak wind" which in the NHC report is mentioned as an unofficial 1-minute sustained of 84 KT (at the 1st Guage)... if that 107 KT is or can be verified as the same, that would be a fairly strong Cat 3 wind at Michoud--IN New Orleans. Personally I feel whether it's verified or not (and it IS in the updated NHC report from Michoud) nobody is going to change their minds in here. Those who want to believe what they believe will continue to do so, and justify it with the same rhetoric we've all heard a hundred times--your humble servant included.

A2K

[MiamiensisWx]

I know this is off-topic, but here is something I've noticed from the September 1947 storm which hit southeast Florida and New Orleans. The storm was classified as a Category Five in the Bahamas based on a one-minute wind reading of 160MPH on Abaco Island. At southeast Florida landfall, the storm was also classified as a high-end Category Four based on a one-minute 155MPH wind reading from Hillsboro Beach (located in northeast Broward County near Pompano Beach). However, they are now classifying the storm as a minimal Category Four at southeast Florida landfall, saying the 155MPH one-minute sustained reading was only a gust. However, the storm is still classified as a Category Five in the Bahamas based on the 160MPH reading that lasted the same time as the Hillsboro Beach reading. What's up with that? Why was one sustained reading (the one at Hillsboro Beach) discounted while the other sustained reading (on Abaco Island) counted? This might shed some interesting light on the debate going on now. I just thought to share it. Any thoughts?

[Audrey2Katrina]

That 1947 storm is something I've heard a lot about--one of the few we mention around here before my time

But I do recall my mom and dad talking quite a bit about that thing--lots of flooding in the western areas, as opposed to downtown New Orleans. In fact, this Metairie area I'm in now was very much under water after that one; but the area wasn't nearly as densely developed at the time. That is an interesting point you raise there, and probably one of our pro-mets can/will have the answer. From what I heard/read, it was a real rip-snorter coming into Florida, but unless I'm remembering the articles I've read wrongly, it wasn't much above a Cat 1 when it came through New Orleans, although it truly came along what would've been that "worst case" track. Scary to think what a 4 or 5 on that track would do to this area--especially after Katrina.

A2K

[MiamiensisWx]

I think they recently upgraded the storm's landfall near New Orleans to Category Three status; also, sustained winds of Category Two strength were reported in Louisiana during the September 1947 storm.

In southeast Florida, the storm actually hit Boca Raton (my area) directly as a Category Four while moving 10MPH or less. Can you imagine the devastation in Florida and on the Gulf coast, including in New Orleans, if a storm like the 1947 storm occurred? I guess many in Florida have forgotten about it as well; southeast Florida was sparsely populated at that time. It is also mixed up with another 1947 storm that hit southern Florida by the few that lived through it and remember it. My area would be devastated if it happened today... in fact, the September 1947 storm - along with an October 1947 storm - created severe flooding in southern Florida. It has been said that you could actually boat in southeast Florida all the way down to Fort Lauderdale or Miami!

I still think the storm was a high-end Category Four when it made southeast Florida landfall. Do you agree, Audrey2Katrina?

[ROCK]

107 knots sounds like a pretty big gust. Falls right in line with cat 2 winds with higher gusts into the low 3's in NO.....

[Pearl River]

Rock wrote

skysummit wrote:
I'm not saying that there were stronger winds than Cat 1 or 2 IN New Orleans, but that doesn't mean there's no wind damage either. I have seen entire brick walls that have collapsed where there was no flooding.


we had brick walls fall in Galveston with Rita. Didn't even see cat 1 winds...


EWG- I agree with all your points. Kat offically was a 3 at landfall. Wind damage seen in NO was not even close to sustained cat 3 winds.

There maybe other reasons why the brick walls fell in Galveston.

Here we go again. If you are talking downtown New Orleans, more than likely cat 2 gusts. New Orleans is not just the French Quarter. It's Michoud, Lake Catherine, Rigolets, Fort Pike, New Orleans East. Those are all the city of New Orleans. Orleans Parish is the city of New Orleans.

Maybe when someone talks about New Orleans, they need to clarify they are speaking of downtown. There was an update to the Post Storm report dated Feb 17th. Second wind gauge at Michoud, 107 knots peak wind. Does not mention or call it a gust, and yes it is unofficial.

All I ask is don't base your facts or opinions on videotape. You don't and cannot see everything that has happened. It also depends on where one's location was when they shot the video. I know what cat 1/2 winds can do to trees. I'm almost 50yo and have been thru many storms. Cat 2 wind gusts did not do the type of damage that has occured to a lot of these trees. My dad who is 83yo and has lived in Slidell all his life except for 1942-1944, has said he has never seen anything like this and I trust his judgement more than someone sitting and viewing videotapes.

[Audrey2Katrina]

107 knots sounds like a pretty big gust. Falls right in line with cat 2 winds with higher gusts into the low 3's in NO.....

Sort of True.. 107KT wouldn't be "low 3's" but at around 125+mph a pretty solid 3... then too, there's the matter of if it were a "gust" and not a "1 minute sustained" which is what the same term was used for the reading from guage 1.

All a matter of perspective I reckon.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

still think the storm was a high-end Category Four when it made southeast Florida landfall. Do you agree, Audrey2Katrina?

Definitely a four in Florida, if not a low-end five. I've done a little more research, and the IHRC seems to have given these two storms of '47 a name..(didn't know they did that sort of thing), they called the one we're talking about "George" and that other one "King"... anyway, from what I've read they describe "George as a huge lumbering Cat 4, that did surprisingly little damage--unquestionably due to the much less development in the area) And yeah, I've noticed some other charts showing it's Louisiana landfall at somewhere between 2 and 3...it was a Cape Verde storm as a matter of fact.

A2K

[Ixolib]

I know this is off-topic, but here is something I've noticed from the September 1947 storm which hit southeast Florida and New Orleans. The storm was classified as a Category Five in the Bahamas based on a one-minute wind reading of 160MPH on Abaco Island. At southeast Florida landfall, the storm was also classified as a high-end Category Four based on a one-minute 155MPH wind reading from Hillsboro Beach (located in northeast Broward County near Pompano Beach). However, they are now classifying the storm as a minimal Category Four at southeast Florida landfall, saying the 155MPH one-minute sustained reading was only a gust. However, the storm is still classified as a Category Five in the Bahamas based on the 160MPH reading that lasted the same time as the Hillsboro Beach reading. What's up with that? Why was one sustained reading (the one at Hillsboro Beach) discounted while the other sustained reading (on Abaco Island) counted? This might shed some interesting light on the debate going on now. I just thought to share it. Any thoughts?

Interestingly enough, the '47 storm was this area's "benchmark" before Camille. In fact, it is because of the stories my Grandpa told me years ago about how that storm so significantly impacted Biloxi that I became so interested in tropical weather. It was a slow-mover that tracked in a line just north of due west about 30 miles south of the MS coast, crossing Chandeleur, then over the Rigolets and on into the city of N.O. Surge was pretty significant here in Biloxi for the '47 storm, even though it had weakened significantly before landfall... A correlation???

Of course, we all know what the new benchmark is... I can only imagine what Grandpa woulda thought about Katrina...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Interestingly enough, the '47 storm was this area's "benchmark" before Camille.

Yup, that one truly took a "worst case" path for this area--my parents spoke quite a lot about that slow mover. After that one, Betsy was the benchmark for this area even though the '47 took a much worse path and impacted a far less developed metro area. And yeah, Katrina will be the benchmark.... well, let's just hope for a long long time!

A2K

[Pearl River]

The December 1947 copy of the AMS Monthly Weather Revue shows estimated winds of 110 and gusts to 125 in New Orleans. It looks like all the really strong winds in Florida and New Orleans are shown as estimated in that report.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Just a word of caution to anyone "Googling" the 1947 storm. Should you get a link to a site with the name including i2in.info ... do NOT click it, there is an exploit virus in it, thankfully my firewall caught it immediately... just a word to the wise!

A2K