Repeat of 2004 setup for Florida

[JonathanBelles]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

Not trying to be rude or anything, but Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County, ALABAMA.

ivan made landfall in florida

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Um...no Ivan did not make landfall in Florida, fact

[JonathanBelles]

according to the pic it did

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I think it has already been established that the pic is wrong and a very poorly drawn map. Everyone knows it made landfall in Gulf Shores.

[JonathanBelles]

ok

[Extremeweatherguy]

hopefully we wont have anything like this!but if the bermuda high parks itself the way iam thinking might happen..florida might be in trouble!

Not trying to be rude or anything, but Ivan made landfall in Baldwin County, ALABAMA.

Also, the path for hurricane Charley is about 100+ miles too far south and east. Charley passed right over Orlando and out Daytona Beach. This map has Charley passing over southern Florida and never even reaching those areas.

I do not consider Lake Okeechobe South Florida.

I do. I lived in Central FL for many years and I have always considered Okeechobe the dividing line between Central and south Florida. I also lived through the eyewall of Charley in Orlando...I think I know what I am talking about when I say that map is very wrong and the path of Charley is too far south and east. (BTW: according to that map...it has a landfall near or around Naples...who wouldn't consider that south FL? Plus, we all know it made landfall near Punta Gorda so there should not really be any arguement to whether or not this map is wrong; because IT IS).

[ROCK]

To add Ivan II made landfall in LA, yes, but did not turn into Texas. More like it moved to the N then NE....

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think it will be a 2004 setup. Instead I think it will be more of a 2005 setup, but instead aimed more so at the western Gulf and the east coast.

May you explain more clearly on what you mean/which areas you think are most likely to get hit in 2006? Does this mean that you think southeast Florida is at lower risk?

[gatorcane]

To clarify, it is well-known that:

South Florida => Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe
Southwest FL => Charlotte, Lee, Collier, including Ft. Myers and Naples
Central FL => cities including Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, and Sarasota as well as Stuart and Ft. Pierce.

[Ixolib]

To clarify, it is well-known that:

South Florida => Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe
Southwest FL => Charlotte, Lee, Collier, including Ft. Myers and Naples
Central FL => cities including Tampa/St. Petersburg, Orlando, and Sarasota as well as Stuart and Ft. Pierce.

Which, of course, can be broken down into West Central and East Central...

[gatorcane]

Yep, I'm tired of people in Port St. Lucie and Stuart thinking they are in S. Florida.

Jeanne/Frances did not hit S. Florida. These storms hit East Central FL. Thus, S. Florida's last major hurricane still dates back to 1992 with Andrew....Wilma was just under 3 when it swept through S. Florida in 2005.

[Scorpion]

Yep, I'm tired of people in Port St. Lucie and Stuart thinking they are in S. Florida.

Jeanne/Frances did not hit S. Florida. These storms hit East Central FL. Thus, S. Florida's last major hurricane still dates back to 1992 with Andrew....

Yep. I consider South Florida the urban corridor between Jupiter all the way past Kendall. Once you go above Jupiter its far less developed. Thats not to say that Frances and Jeanne didn't hit us, we got hit pretty hard, as bad if not worse than Wilma. But yea, South Florida really has been lucky.

[gatorcane]

yep I'd have to agree.

[boca]

I think the setup will allow storms to cross Florida from the East and instead of curving up like Katrina did, hit the SE Texas area from Houston south to Brownsville. Not scientific just a feeling.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a better map for the storms in central Fl which I found on skeetobite weather:


^^You can clearly see the difference when compared to the other map^^

[boca]

Nice map and also accurate.

[skysummit]

I have to add, that Skeetobite map is right on compared to that other one.

[boca]

Bringing up the Frances storm in 2004.Even though it hit Hutchinson Island off Stuart here in Boca Raton we still had Cat 1 winds and I lost power for 5 days so it still affected S FL even though it hit so called East Central Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

Huh? I live in eastern Boca Raton and the highest sustained winds that I think I got in Frances were low-end to middle (barely, if at all) tropical storm-force winds of around 40MPH to 55MPH. I am not saying they are weak (no winds are weak)... I am just making a point from my thoughts.

[boca]

I thought we had 70 to 75 mph here in Boca I could be wrong. I know it was nothing compared to Wilma. Do you have the data from Frances?