Long Range Forecast Model Discussion Thread

[dhweather]

12z GFS



Above is the 12z run of GFS at 384 hours which shows a low near the Yucatan.Again those who dont like to look at these very long range runs of the models dont open the link or not visit the thread.

What is interesting in that image is that the synoptic setup has
a large ridge over the eastern atlantic, and another near bermuda.

[skysummit]

What about those waves coming off of Africa? I wonder if it's picking up any of those making the long trek across.

[terstorm1012]

12z GFS



Above is the 12z run of GFS at 384 hours which shows a low near the Yucatan.Again those who dont like to look at these very long range runs of the models dont open the link or not visit the thread.

What is interesting in that image is that the synoptic setup has
a large ridge over the eastern atlantic, and another near bermuda.

yes that is interesting indeed dhweather, however I think another ridge is supposed to form over the middle of the country and spread east, if I understood the forecast right.

[terstorm1012]

bump

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Loop

Above is the 12z loop at 384 hours.It shows weak low pressures during the period until June 9th especially in the Bay of Campeche,Western Caribbean and one crossing the Florida Straits.However nothing that seems to look like Alberto thru the 9th.

[CHRISTY]

its been showing all kinda stuff...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that while the GFS's individual "fantasy storms" may not play out; the GFS may be trying to tell us that something does have the potential to develop in early June. Based on the many past runs of the GFS...I will be closely watched the SE Gulf and NW Carrib. between June 2nd and June 8th.

[skysummit]

I agree Extreme. I believe someone else brought this up in another thread too. The GFS tries to form systems here and there, and most likely none of them will evolve, however, it's the computer's way of telling us that something will be somewhere soon, but when and where? :p

[EDR1222]

I also agree that although these long range runs don't mean a whole lot, it may be a sign that conditions are becoming favorable as we approach the beginning of the season.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS loop at 384 hours

This run shows different areas during the period but nothing that may look like Alberto yet until the 10th.

If you opened this thread and furthermore the different links it means that you are interested in the long range forecasts.If you are not interested in this it's very simple,dont open the links at all.

[ronjon]

The long range GFS has been fairly persistent over the last week or so in bringing a mass of convection northward out of the western Carribean during the latter part of the 1st week of June. What I take from it is that the upper air steering patterns are forecast to become more summer-like with the jet stream aligned along the US- Canada border and the Bermuda High establishing its summer-time presence. Since the GFS has been fairly persistent with this feature, I would expect at least a disorganized mass of convection to spread northward somewhere into the GOM from the western Carribean. This is a climatologically favored area for Tropical disturbances in June so I don't think its surprising. Whether anything becomes of the convection - will have to wait and see. The latest 06Z GFS is indicating a 1008 mb low in the south-central GOM at the end of its 2-week run (highly doubtful but interesting none-the-less).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[terstorm1012]

I agree Extreme. I believe someone else brought this up in another thread too. The GFS tries to form systems here and there, and most likely none of them will evolve, however, it's the computer's way of telling us that something will be somewhere soon, but when and where? :p

I personally thought the GFS was -removed-.

would send it a stern email giving it a nice firm talking to if I could

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop at 384 hours

Since this thread is for long range runs from the models that is why I continue to post these runs.Above is the 12z GFS loop which shows nothing extraordinary thru the 11th.I dont believe anything reliable beyond 144 hours from the models.

Skysummit this thread is not my creation,it's Christy's.

[skysummit]

Ooopss sorry Luis. Props to Christy.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The GFS to me is really sucky since it keeps on forecasting systems in the Atlantic when there is nothing.

[skysummit]

I just looked at the 18Z GFS run. LOL.....don't show anyone in New Orleans from 192 hours to 300 hours It forms a system in the Northwest Carribean at 192 hours then makes landfall at 288 hours in New Orleans, stalls for 12 hours or so, skirts the Louisiana coastline toward Lake Charles, moves back over open water, re-organizes off the coast of Corpus Christi and again moves back north for a second landfall in Rita country.

Holy comoly. That crazzzzzzy GFS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just looked at the 18Z GFS run. LOL.....don't show anyone in New Orleans from 192 hours to 300 hours It forms a system in the Northwest Carribean at 192 hours then makes landfall at 288 hours in New Orleans, stalls for 12 hours or so, skirts the Louisiana coastline toward Lake Charles, moves back over open water, re-organizes off the coast of Corpus Christi and again moves back north for a second landfall in Rita country.

Holy comoly. That crazzzzzzy GFS.

holy! I hope the GFS isn't onto something or else we could have major problems on our hands! lol.

[skysummit]

The GFS is beginning to form numerous storms now at lomg range....including one long tracker that starts from a wave in the Atlantic and brings it into the Central Carribean by the end of its run.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's pretty obvious that the GFS is seeing the current patterns and is, consequently, developing a feeding frenzy over possible systems and forming lows. I would keep an eye on it... sooner or later, I would not be surprised to see development, since the current patterns suggest we may see an environment quite conducive for a developing system - likely at least subtropical - somewhere out there, especially in the Caribbean or BOC. Just because it hasn't happened yet, don't dismiss it that it won't happen out in the future coming up soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest from the GFS:

-Low moves up and over Cuba, then develops out into the Atlantic between June 5th and June 7th.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml
^^low in Atlantic^^

-Low forms in southern Gulf on June 15th, then moves north and makes landfall near the TX/LA border.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _312.shtml
^^Low on June 15th^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml
^^Low making landfall^^