TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

[JonathanBelles]

geez i go away for a week and mexico gets a TS

[MiamiensisWx]

geez i go away for a week and mexico gets a TS

That's what happens!

[HURAKAN]

geez i go away for a week and mexico gets a TS

WELCOME TO THE HURRICANE SEASON!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Looking good on imagery... you can see convection consolidating around the center. Favorable outflow and low shear next to gradually higher shear helping outflow is helping gradual intensification and consolidation, too.

[HURAKAN]

The system is looking good for a 35-knot storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the actual intensity is around 45KT, or maybe even 50KT.

[hurricanefloyd5]

geez i go away for a week and mexico gets a TS

No one is allowed to take time off but me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just kidding!!!!!!!!!!

[CHRISTY]

hey guys i was out with a friend i just got home and here we go with our first storm in the pacific!

here is the forcast from hurricane alley....

[CHRISTY]

Here are a few IR images of our new TS.Pretty big Flare up going on!





Here is an image were Tropical storm force winds will affect in the next 24 hours!

[CHRISTY]

I say Aletta might become a weak hurricane if she stays ofshore.

Huge flare up going on right now!

[hurricanefloyd5]

oh yeah!!!!!!!!!!!

[CHRISTY]

She looks pretty good on these 2 IR loops....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[CHRISTY]

[StormScanWx]

What is different about that product from previous seasons, Christy?

[CHRISTY]

What is different about that product from previous seasons, Christy?

my bad i was talkin about somthing else...thanks

[SouthFloridawx]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272007
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB USING A SHEAR PATTERN.
THUS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALETTA. AN
IMPRESSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS
RESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED JUST
WEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
THE BROAD CENTER OF ALETTA HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/03 KT SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER... THAT ALETTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NOW...SO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER
THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL... CALLS FOR
ALETTA TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BACK OVER WATER
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO
TRACKS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BY 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR UP UNTIL ALETTA NEARS LAND IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEREAFTER WHEN ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE-SCALE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 100.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 99.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT


$$

[dixiebreeze]

Not impossible:

THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER
THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE.

[CrazyC83]

If Aletta crosses over to the Bay of Campeche and is still a tropical depression at the time, it remains Aletta. (Highly unlikely)

If Aletta degenerates into a remnant low, crosses over and regenerates, it becomes Alberto. (More likely)

[JonathanBelles]

how many storms of this strength have made this path and survived?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

...ALETTA MOVING LITTLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO
FROM EAST OF PUNTA MALDONADO EASTWARD TO PUERTO ESCONDIDO...AND FROM
WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES...180 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AT THIS
TIME. A SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...15.7 N...101.0 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

FORECASTER PASCH