TD Two-E at EPAC=Last Advisorie,8 PM PDT,6/4/06

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks for the plots, CHRISTY.

[CHRISTY]

my bad and this is the NHC forcast track...21z

[CHRISTY]

These are the intermediate models....12z



And these are the Satellite Center Fixes for 02E....

[MiamiensisWx]

Really heavy rains are moving into Acapulco and Lazaro areas now...

[cycloneye]

WTPZ32 KNHC 032350
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...110 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE CROSSING
THE COAST OF MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...16.9 N... 102.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN





Still a depression.

[MiamiensisWx]

Really? Still a depression? That's a bit surprising. I think the data supports that we have Bud. They may be keeping it a depression because it was not upgraded an hour or so ago, and now cloudtops over the center have warmed (although I still think it is still maintaing low-end 40MPH).

[HURAKAN]

It seems that only a burst of convection will make this Bud. At this moment, it seems TD 2 will remain TD 2.

[brunota2003]

it appears to ME that either the center is just offshore or currently working right along the coast. I agree though that it looked fairly impressive earlier, better than some hurricanes that I have seen...but the cloud tops just suddenly collapsed...dry air maybe?

[CHRISTY]

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection has really waned a bit in intensity, and the center is about to make landfall. Looks like the system will officially be a 35MPH depression at landfall. Land interaction, some dry air and shear is starting to take it's toll. I really think this was 40MPH Bud an hour ago, and I think it still is, but that it is now weakening to a 35MPH depression at landfall.

Infra-red imagery

Looks like my forecast was and is pretty much on target in intensity, movement, center position, effects, and all the other things.

[cycloneye]

Brunota,Land interaction the main cause of the warming top clouds.

[brunota2003]

Brunota,Land interaction the main cause of the warming top clouds.

ah...duh...still early in the season...forgive me yes...most definetly just looked at the water vapor...not much dry air and the storms over water are still strong...so yes land interaction...

[CHRISTY]

[Jim Cantore]

I cant really tell but is this making landfall?

[cycloneye]

629
WTPZ22 KNHC 040230
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
0300Z SUN JUN 04 2006

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


$$



915
WTPZ32 KNHC 040230
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS THE GREATEST THREAT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR OR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO THE
CENTER REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 25 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...102.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN




914
WTPZ42 KNHC 040230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006

INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
2346Z TRMM AND 0106Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
WAS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO
SHEAR. SINCE THEN...CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...30 KT
TAFB...35 KT SAB...ALONG WITH THE POOR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. DUE TO SHEAR AND THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM
IS DIMINISHING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN
MEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS...
THE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP
COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

REGARDLESS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Jim Cantore]

Bud is going to have to wait for the next one

[Weatherfreak000]

Is it possible for the circulation to make it's way into the BOC?

[MGC]

The mid level circulation is currently over the mountains. Actually, the mid level circulation looks pretty good. The MLC should emerge over the GOM tomorrow and then cross the GOM towards Florida. Nothing tropical at the surface will become of it......MGC

[gatorcane]

The mid level circulation is currently over the mountains. Actually, the mid level circulation looks pretty good. The MLC should emerge over the GOM tomorrow and then cross the GOM towards Florida. Nothing tropical at the surface will become of it......MGC

not going to happen:

snippet from latest NHC discussion

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN
MEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS...
THE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP
COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

[MGC]

I was not talking about the surface circulation. It should dissipate either over the mountains or become a remnant low. The shear is too high over the LLCC. The MLC is moving NE....MGC