What happens when this gets into the GOM?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here we go, this is a site I found talking about Allison:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20010614/

And here is a quote from the site:

"Allison was the first tropical cyclone of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Allison's origin can be traced back to a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean in late May. The disturbance moved into central America and remained relatively stationary for several days before moving into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in early June."

Basically it looks like Allison's wave moved into Central America, and sat there (may be meeting up with Mexican moisture), then moved into the SW Gulf/BOC and then moved north becoming a TS.

[Johnny]

Frank gets a tad bit excited when weather events like this happen in Southeast, Texas. lol

[PTrackerLA]

It's interesting to look at the visible satellite loop. The convection continues to intensify just offshore and I have to ask the question if this might drag the circulation offshore as well? I'm pretty sure I see a slight WSW/SW drift as the forecast indicates but we could have some tropical troubles if it makes it in the gulf. All in all it's a fascinating little system to watch, I just hope flooding problems don't become worse.

[HouTXmetro]

Call me crazy but it looks like the circulation has moved south and is almost over Galveston Bay. Am I seeing things? If not this thing might bee completly offshore tonight.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/r ... pl?E_Texas

[vbhoutex]

Still Just N of Galveston Bay. It has definitely moved SW and WSW out of Liberty county though.

[Stormcenter]

Call me crazy but it looks like the circulation has moved south and is almost over Galveston Bay. Am I seeing things? If not this thing might bee completly offshore tonight.


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/r ... pl?E_Texas

It sure looks that way but hey I'm no expert.

[Stormcenter]

The complex of storms is still expanding and remains impressive looking as it appears to be drifting WSW to my untrained eyes.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Johnny]

The infrared loop is not the best one to look at . Check out the vis. satellite loop. You can see the circulaton a whole lot better. To me it seems like the center of circulation is over northern Harris County.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Stormsfury]

This was a piece of mid and upper level energy that broke off the trough (cold front) and got bogged down into SE TX releasing a torrent of rain as an MCS.

Cold core mid and upper systems and the lapse rates associated with them make the atmosphere unstable once insolation begins during the late morning, afternoon hours, and is simply, the atmosphere responding. Nothing unusual here, except that it sits and dumps a foot of rain on parts of Houston last night.

SF

[Stormcenter]

This was a piece of mid and upper level energy that broke off the trough (cold front) and got bogged down into SE TX releasing a torrent of rain as an MCS.

Cold core mid and upper systems and the lapse rates associated with them make the atmosphere unstable once insolation begins during the late morning, afternoon hours, and is simply, the atmosphere responding. Nothing unusual here, except that it sits and dumps a foot of rain on parts of Houston last night.

SF

A foot a rain in one night seems pretty "unusual" to me I must say.

[HouTXmetro]

According to the NHC overlay a low is hugging the coast near Freeport. However I do see a finite circulation over NE harris county.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[jasons2k]

It's onshore in far NE Harris County. It's not over the water and it's not moving towards the water. By Wednesday the system will be close to San Antonio or Del Rio.

This has no threat of being anything tropical and really we should be discussing this in the thread in the USA Weather forum.

[Johnny]

This has no threat of being anything tropical and really we should be discussing this in the thread in the USA Weather forum.

Agreed.

[Stormcenter]

It's onshore in far NE Harris County. It's not over the water and it's not moving towards the water. By Wednesday the system will be close to San Antonio or Del Rio.

This has no threat of being anything tropical and really we should be discussing this in the thread in the USA Weather forum.

Well I figured since a "majority" of the convection is over the GOM then it would be appropriate to discuss it on this forum. It's not like there is are a ton of things going on it the tropics at the moment anyway.

[CHRISTY]

Steve Lyons just confirmed that the LOW will not move into the gulf of mexico.tropical development is not expected.

[HoustonTexas]

What's the chance of this causing another strong downpour over the Northern parts of Houston?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What's the chance of this causing another strong downpour over the Northern parts of Houston?

High.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I do not think this will move over the Gulf either. I am more concerned now with the wave entering the Caribbean which could be in the Gulf by this weekend.

[CHRISTY]

Steve Lyons also said the thunder storm activity near the bahamas may also have to be watched....

[greg_kfdm_tv]

The mid level low is now located just southwest of Liberty moving slowly to the west-southwest into eastern Harris County. This low will stay out of the Gulf and will not be a risk of developing into a tropical depression.

However, more very heavy rains will likely redevelop east and southeast of the circulation center tonight and early Tuesday. This will place the Houston metro area at high risk of additional flood producing rains.

By the way, I live 28 miles southwest of Beaumont and have had 26 inches of rain since Memorial Day! Drought cancel.