BAHAMA Disturbance Thread #2

shannon · #41 Postby **shannon** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:09 pm

wxman 57-- I hope you understand I meant no disrespect, my husband is a harbormaster for one of the marina's here in Jupiter, Florida. He has not had a day off since May 17th, unfortunately because of being short staffed. I just remeber during last seasons hurricanes I rarely saw him which really was not fun being that we have two young boys under 5. I totally understand aboust missing out on the bike b/c I don't get to go workout at the gym when I have no one to watch the kids. No endorphans = unhappy mood!! Perhaps that is why I made my previous post as I missed my work out today! :lol:

ty

CHRISTY · #42 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:09 pm

STEERING (LOW)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSTEERS/anim.html

STEERING (MID)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSTEERM/anim.html

STEERING (DEEP)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATANL_ATLSTEERD/anim.html

#43 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:10 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 230204
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS
THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

#44 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:11 pm

skysummit wrote:
MGC wrote:I'm working OT right now, I've had three complete weekends the past two months. Sometimes ya just gotta do what ya gotta do. The few days off I've had are involved in hurricane repairs since Katrina. Tropical cyclones don't give a rats if it the weekend or not. Camille hit on Sunday. Save your crying for another time, now get to work......MGC

YEA!!!! Go get 'em MGC!!!!

You can use some time off for sure MGC. Before coming off the road several months ago, I averaged 10 months out with 40 weekends a year worked for the last 18 straight years. Time to relax now.

#45 Postby **AJC3** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:13 pm

skysummit wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
george_r_1961 wrote:Its broad and diffuse for sure but nonetheless there is a surface low. As shear abates there is some chance of a tropical depression forming. Two things its got going against it: The WV is showing dry air to its west..and as this system approaches land yet more dry air could be pulled into it due to the broad circulation.

Just my 1 cent (sorry dont have that other penny right now)

Back on topic -- I'm wondering what you're seeing to indicate a broad surface circulation, as the surface observations I'm looking at indicate a trof axis but no closed low yet at the surface. I can see a circulation aloft in satellite loops, though. WV loops do show a lot of shear and a lot of dry air moving across the area, though. Not too conducive to development.

Yea no westerly winds. Thanks for pointing that out. Could that be due to lack of data? Even NHC indicated that a broad surface low "appears" to be forming. Not trying to contradict you just wondering,

Here you can see a mid to low level westerly wind. Maybe that's what they're talking about.

That west wind is in the 600-400MB layer, which would make it a "mid to upper" level wind. I saw no semblance of a west wind at CU level based on movement in vis satellite imagery today, just cyclonic turning from NNE to SSE around the low level trough axis.

The Hurricaner · #46 Postby **The Hurricaner** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:24 pm

So the TWO says no TS formation expected till sat. Im pretty sure it will be a TD when its over florida at least, i think sunday-monday, maybe even tuesday?..anyways..Bring it on!(just cause i want it to give us some much needed rain.) I like experiencing storms too. As long as it stays a TD.

wzrgirl1 · #47 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:44 pm

seems as if there is less convection this evening......

#48 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:57 pm

Yep less lower Level Convergence.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

boca · #49 Postby **boca** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:57 pm

System looks kind of sick tonight lets see what it looks like in the am.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html

Josephine96 · #50 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:26 pm

I remember TD/TS Erika a few years back. She was nice. Rain, some TD to occasional TS force winds. Nothing too bad. Maybe we need another Erika. She was rainy and a little windy. Like an extended PM thunderstorm

HurricaneHunter914 · #51 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:29 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:Wouldn't that be something if the first two named storms of the season both hit Florida...great omen guys...great omen lol...haha, but we do need the rain in some spots so.. .

k e v i n . c h o

As long as they stay TS's they are welcomed in FL. Though our Met said that not many systems form in the Bahamas during June.

#52 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:34 pm

All June Storms From 1851-2005 from Tropical Storm to Cat 5

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:38 pm

SouthFloridawx,do you have already the 00z models?

HurricaneHunter914 · #54 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:50 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Conditions continue to look better for this system.

#55 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:10 pm

Finally!!!! Floater 1 has been moved!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

#56 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:SouthFloridawx,do you have already the 00z models?

NAM 00Z model run....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam/fcst/index.html

#57 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:17 pm

As well as you can check the models out... bookmark these sites.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

#58 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:49 pm

Throughout this thread, I must've read 100 times how bad Florida needs the rain from this Bahama system. I know we're dry here too in SELA...very dry. There are cracks in the ground that we're about start building bridges over. BUT....I didn't realize it was THIS bad compared to other parts of the east. We REALLY need the rain!

Scorpion · #59 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:51 pm

We really don't need the rain. I have no idea where people get this idea from. We are about average for the year.

#60 Postby **AJC3** » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:09 am

Scorpion wrote:We really don't need the rain. I have no idea where people get this idea from. We are about average for the year.

People are probably getting this idea from the data - that shows the entire state to be well below normal for the year, in spite of the decent rainfall that many (but not all) folks have been getting this month. In particular, both the space and treasure coasts are averaging about 8 inches or more below normal for the year.

STN/MTH PPT/MTH departure/YTD Precip/Normal/YTD departure
MLB/4.75"/+0.50"/10.56"/-7.60"
VRB/5.24"/+0.96"/12.09"/-8.41"
PBI/1.06"/-4.54"/15.07"/-9.47"
FLL/3.21"/-4.25"/15.08"/-11.06"
MIA/6.01"/+0.14"/12.60"/-5.73"

BAHAMA Disturbance Thread #2

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