91L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Buck]

Will this thing go into the Gulf?

No

[vbhoutex]

Will this thing go into the Gulf?

No

Why not? Please explain your reasoning.

[Frank P]

viewing this radar presentation loop it looks like what might have been the remnants of the center to be on land moving wnw as best I can tell... approaching Coral Springs..


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX

[HURAKAN]

ADIOS - AU REVOIR - ARRIVEDERCI - ADEUS - GOOD BYE - AUF WEIDERSEHEN - TOT ZIENS -до свидания - 再见！



If yesterday there was some hope, now there is non!!!

[Stratusxpeye]

91L Should be no more for east cost of flrodia at least. never know what could happen if it did for some reason hold and hit the GOM. Doubtful but you never know.

[wxman57]

Will this thing go into the Gulf?

No

Why not? Please explain your reasoning.

First of all, there's nothing there but an upper-level low. A few thunderstorms might make it into the NE Gulf but that won't increase any chances of development. By tomorrow morning, strong southwesterly winds in the mid to upper levels build into the NE Gulf ahead of an upper trof. Anhting that moves in the direction of the NE Gulf will be steered northward up the east U.S. Coast (inland). There may still be about 0.000000001 chance that this could develop into a TD/TS, but I'll take my chances and say it's dead and will not develop into any tropical system.

[Thunder44]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said that as long as the ULL stays offshore of Florida east coast there is still a LOW chance that another surface low could develop there and become a TD.

[Thunder44]

TPC has cancelled the flight for today again but they have another flight scheduled for tomorrow afternoon.

248
NOUS42 KNHC 251330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SUN 25 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUN 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 26/1600Z
D. 31.0N 80.5W
E. 26/1700Z TO 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE AS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INLAND.

3. MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 25/1800Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 25/1245Z.

[HURAKAN]

I see tomorrow's plan also cancelled!!!

[wxman57]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said that as long as the ULL stays offshore of Florida east coast there is still a LOW chance that another surface low could develop there and become a TD.

Yes, that is true, that's why I mentioned the 0.000000001 chance pf development in my post above. Very, very, very, very, very slim chance anything will come of this. I'm sure Steve Lyons would rather be at home on Sunday morning than having to talk about this minimal threat.

[Patrick99]

I'm not even sure I would call this a "thing"......it's more like an "area." The idea of actually having a spaghetti model plot for this kinda cracks me up.

I think this board way overhyped this "event"...not every t-storm over water is a Katrina, Rita or Wilma in the making.

Oh well, at least it's overcast out, for once. Still only sparse rainfall, though....nothing to write home about.

[Thunder44]

There is a LLC associated with little thunderstorm activity, that can be seen just SE of Melbourne on visible imagery. It seems to be moving slowing NNW and may just parallel the Florida coast today before it moves inland over Georgia or SC by Tuesday or so. I think this may be why TPC has scheduled another flight just off the Florida/Georgia border tomorrow.

[Ivan14]

I will eat my crow for saying this area of interest would develop.

[Thunder44]

New 12z models initialized right where that LLC is that is forming. At 27.5N 79.8W moving NW at 8kts


807
WHXX01 KWBC 251303
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060625 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060625 1200 060626 0000 060626 1200 060627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.5N 79.8W 28.2N 81.0W 29.5N 82.3W 31.5N 83.1W
BAMM 27.5N 79.8W 28.2N 81.0W 29.4N 82.2W 31.1N 82.9W
A98E 27.5N 79.8W 28.9N 80.7W 30.3N 81.3W 33.2N 81.2W
LBAR 27.5N 79.8W 28.8N 80.6W 30.9N 81.1W 34.0N 81.0W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060627 1200 060628 1200 060629 1200 060630 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.2N 83.3W 40.6N 81.7W 46.9N 74.8W 51.3N 49.4W
BAMM 33.4N 82.9W 38.7N 80.6W 44.3N 72.9W 48.3N 51.4W
A98E 36.9N 80.2W 46.3N 75.9W 53.6N 57.8W 45.6N 32.2W
LBAR 37.7N 79.9W 47.1N 73.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 57KTS 66KTS 59KTS
DSHP 33KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.5N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.9N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 27.2N LONM24 = 76.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Thunder44]

621
ABNT20 KNHC 251510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER... EVEN IF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOES NOT DEVELOP... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA... AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECASTER STEWART

They sound even more bullish about this thing than yesterday.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, I just dont see what the NHC is seeing.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not even sure I would call this a "thing"......it's more like an "area." The idea of actually having a spaghetti model plot for this kinda cracks me up.

I think this board way overhyped this "event"...not every t-storm over water is a Katrina, Rita or Wilma in the making.

Oh well, at least it's overcast out, for once. Still only sparse rainfall, though....nothing to write home about.

The board "overhypes" a lot of events.

[Stormcenter]

Steve Lyons on TWC just said that as long as the ULL stays offshore of Florida east coast there is still a LOW chance that another surface low could develop there and become a TD.

Yes, that is true, that's why I mentioned the 0.000000001 chance pf development in my post above. Very, very, very, very, very slim chance anything will come of this. I'm sure Steve Lyons would rather be at home on Sunday morning than having to talk about this minimal threat.

Did you read this morning's the NHC 10:30am outlook? It sounds like they give it a better chance than you do wxman57. What are they possibly seing that you don't?

[Frank P]

I'm not even sure I would call this a "thing"......it's more like an "area." The idea of actually having a spaghetti model plot for this kinda cracks me up.

I think this board way overhyped this "event"...not every t-storm over water is a Katrina, Rita or Wilma in the making.

Oh well, at least it's overcast out, for once. Still only sparse rainfall, though....nothing to write home about.

The board "overhypes" a lot of events.

Yeah that's usually the case but most especially early in the season when trackers are eager for something to develop... probably in late August you won't need to overhype, an active season will help mitigate that... personally I'd rather have the overhype than any of this come to fruition... regardless, Aug and Sept should be some interesting months... lets enjoy whatever quiet we can get for the time being...

[ronjon]

I see two vortices based on radar and SAT. One that everyone mentioned riding N-NW along the coast near Melbourne and another located on the south side of the big lake near the Henry/Palm Beach County line moving off toward the west. The Melbourne LLC is devoid of convection and is scooting off pretty quick. I'm more interested in the feature over land because of the heavy thunderstorms rotating around it to the south and east. All SE FL coastal stations are showing a S or SW wind which would indicate that a LLC is west of these sites. The lowest pressure is present at Vero Beach at 28.88 in. Some models (GFS) from yesterday showed low pressure emerging off the SW FL Coast and then riding north into the panhandle. I don't think anything will develop in the GOM due to increasing S-SW shear but I'll be keeping an eye out for any heavy convection & rotation later today off the west coast.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... b&loop=yes