Possible Future Development in the NW Caribbean?

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Extremeweatherguy
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#41 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 27, 2006 11:48 am

I don't think the development will happen in the Caribbean, but instead I feel it will happen once the system reaches the Gulf. The Caribbean shear won't mean much in the Gulf.
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gatorcane
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#42 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:01 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't think the development will happen in the Caribbean, but instead I feel it will happen once the system reaches the Gulf. The Caribbean shear won't mean much in the Gulf.


latest Tropical Discussion - notice they now mention a "low level signature" now in their wording:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE
TO THE WAVE IS BENEATH THE W PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE EASTERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA...
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
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#43 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:13 pm

I am surprised that the NHC has not mentioned this in their TWO yet.
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#44 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:21 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I am surprised that the NHC has not mentioned this in their TWO yet.


development will be slow to ocurr and I still say by the end of this week would be the earliest but lets see - convection is not that great right now.
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#45 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jun 27, 2006 1:23 pm

Looks like it is headed WNW into the Bay of Campeche. If it can make the treck across the Yucatan, we may see something in the Southwestern GOM
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#46 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jun 28, 2006 10:51 am

Look like the convection is dying. Will there be anything left once it enters the BOC?
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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Jim Cantore

#47 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Jun 28, 2006 11:00 am

HouTXmetro wrote:Look like the convection is dying. Will there be anything left once it enters the BOC?


these things can re-fire overnight.

we will see.
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