INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[wxman57]

Here's an image I made to show what's going on. It's a water vapor image with the upper low and trof indicated, the wave axis in yellow along about 64-65W, and red arrows indicating upper wind flow:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93La.gif

Note that the surface winds (trades) are blowing at about 25-30 kts from the east just ahead of the wave. That, combined with strong westerly shear through the Caribbean means that there is very little chance of 93W developing any time soon.

Some of the wave's moisture will be drawn northward into the low, but the wave should continue moving westward toward the southern Yucatan. It's there, in the western Caribbean by Honduras or possibly in the BoC early next week that it might slow down enough and get out of the shear enough for some slight development.

As for the models, they're basically worthless for guidance (BAM) because they assume there is already a circulation and they don't really know that the steering level winds are changing with time ahead of the wave. Basically, the models are assuming that the wave will move with the mid to upper-level winds vs. the trade winds.

[gatorcane]

Here's an image I made to show what's going on. It's a water vapor image with the upper low and trof indicated, the wave axis in yellow along about 64-65W, and red arrows indicating upper wind flow:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93La.gif

Note that the surface winds (trades) are blowing at about 25-30 kts from the east just ahead of the wave. That, combined with strong westerly shear through the Caribbean means that there is very little chance of 93W developing any time soon.

Some of the wave's moisture will be drawn northward into the low, but the wave should continue moving westward toward the southern Yucatan. It's there, in the western Caribbean by Honduras or possibly in the BoC early next week that it might slow down enough and get out of the shear enough for some slight development.

As for the models, they're basically worthless for guidance (BAM) because they assume there is already a circulation and they don't really know that the steering level winds are changing with time ahead of the wave. Basically, the models are assuming that the wave will move with the mid to upper-level winds vs. the trade winds.

thanks great diagram and description

[bvigal]

...Note that the surface winds (trades) are blowing at about 25-30 kts from the east just ahead of the wave. That, combined with strong westerly shear through the Caribbean means that there is very little chance of 93W developing any time soon.

I can't find any 25-30kt winds 'just ahead of the wave'. I've been looking at airports, buoys, ships, quickscat for two days now, on the lookout for wind surge (not thunderstorm gusts, but sustained winds). I need to notify some mariners. Can you tell me where I can find the data?

[cheezyWXguy]

hes talking about shear, bvigal

[bvigal]

hes talking about shear, bvigal

That's not how I read it: "surface winds (trades) are blowing at about 25-30 kts from the east just ahead of the wave"

[cheezyWXguy]

oh...hahahaha...Im a bad reader! my bad

[bvigal]

No worries, I do that all the time! (more as I grow older, hmmm )

[cheezyWXguy]

I have no excuse...im 14! haha

[Tampa_God]

I thought I was the youngest here

[cheezyWXguy]

There used to be someone named weatherwoman132...she was 13 or really closed to 14 or something like that

[NONAME]

There is some young people who really like weather. Me for instance I am 16

[wxmann_91]

...Note that the surface winds (trades) are blowing at about 25-30 kts from the east just ahead of the wave. That, combined with strong westerly shear through the Caribbean means that there is very little chance of 93W developing any time soon.

I can't find any 25-30kt winds 'just ahead of the wave'. I've been looking at airports, buoys, ships, quickscat for two days now, on the lookout for wind surge (not thunderstorm gusts, but sustained winds). I need to notify some mariners. Can you tell me where I can find the data?

GFS initilization does show those winds, in the central Caribbean:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/g ... c_mslp.gif

BTW I am 14, 15 in August.

[vaffie]

There's an interesting stable swirl of low-level clouds around 13.2 N, 66.2W that has become clear in the last couple hours. It is due south of Puerto Rico. It even has several small feeder bands. It's moving WNW I'd estimate at about 25 miles per hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Cyclenall]

Here is the shear forcast:



Is this totally wrong or something?

[Epsilon_Fan]

the Invest doesn't look to good right now...

[The Hurricaner]

HA im 14 too. And i still think SF is going to get rain.

[Ivan14]

I'm 15. The shear map looks wrong. the Caribbean has 30+ shear that is very unfavorable.

[jabber]

Not sure, but it never does seem quite right.

Here is the shear forcast:



Is this totally wrong or something?

[The Hurricaner]

I dont know if this has anything to do with 93L but it has been raining here like a TD landfalled for about 10mins! The wind was strong too.
There is a severe thunderstorm warning. It said it on TWC and the doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing 60mph winds(or gusts i forgot).

[boca]

Wouldn't that trough off the SE coast naturally pull 93L more northward rather than WNW or thats for a system that is vertically stacked in which this is still low level.