96E INVEST at EPAC Thread #1

[cycloneye]

this looks like a TD already!

Agree by the structure of it.Hmmm look at system behind.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Most likely is but moving westward into higher shear. So not worth upgrading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was looking at both systems the first one at 131 west has a very tight LLC...With deep convection. That would very likely be a tropical depression if not a tropical storm if in the Atlantic. The one behind it also looks to be develoing into something. But what can I say I don't upgrade or down grade the systems.

[bombarderoazul]

If this system was in the Atlantic it would have been declared a Depression by now.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 020306
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SAT JUL 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 1600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DIMINISHED.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC BUT NONE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


As in the Kennedy Space Center say,no go.

[AnnularCane]

Where are you, Bud?

[Cyclenall]

Every system is the East Pacific is having trouble forming so far. I thought this thing had a good change but now the NHC doesn't think highly of it. It looks good though.

[clfenwi]

Interest continues to wind down although this is looking the best it's been in the past 30 hours or so...1605Z TWD

LOW PRES NEAR 12N132W 1009 MB REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND ITS
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IS SHRINKING AS IT TRACKS
W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE THAT NOW CRESTS NEAR 11N147W. THEREAFTER
INCREASING SW SHEAR AND COLDER SURFACE WATERS WILL INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING
W OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER SUPPORTS MONITORING...BUT THESE BURSTS
CONTINUE WITHIN THE BROAD ITCZ.

[clfenwi]

Same song on a different day in the 1605Z TWD

LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 11.5N137W AND MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK
BAND WITHIN 90 NM IN SW QUADRANT. ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS SHRINKING AS IT TRACKS W UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
THAT NOW CRESTS NEAR 11N145W. THEREAFTER INCREASING SW SHEAR AND
COLDER SURFACE WATERS WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.

[Scorpion]

Seems like these poor EPAC invests just can't get going.

[clfenwi]

Crossing into the Central Pacific now...NRL is listing it as 90C...

0405Z TWD

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N140W AND MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE LOW IS
EASILY IDENTIFIED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH MAINLY LOW
CLOUDS ROTATING ABOUT THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER OVER THE N
SEMICIRCLE.