94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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Opal storm

#41 Postby Opal storm » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is what the nhc should say.

A tropical distrabance over the southwestern BOC is slowly moving northward. In surface obs and satellite shows that a LLC is forming. Convection is organizing over that LLC. In a tropical depression or storm maybe forming at any time.

A recon plane is planed for later today.

This is what I plan to see from the nhc

A area of convection is over the BOC, which has upper level shear and closeness to land should make any development slow.

With no tropical storm development next couple of days.

Kind of like that.
Okay enough with the NHC bashing.
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Rainband

#42 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:55 pm

Opal storm wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is what the nhc should say.

A tropical distrabance over the southwestern BOC is slowly moving northward. In surface obs and satellite shows that a LLC is forming. Convection is organizing over that LLC. In a tropical depression or storm maybe forming at any time.

A recon plane is planed for later today.

This is what I plan to see from the nhc

A area of convection is over the BOC, which has upper level shear and closeness to land should make any development slow.

With no tropical storm development next couple of days.

Kind of like that.
Okay enough with the NHC bashing.
I agree, I think I posted about this a week ago in another thread. Review the rules please Matt.
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HurricaneHunter914
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#43 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:55 pm

And no bashing of any people this year, please.
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#44 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:55 pm

Extremeguy,

Do you expect a CAT2 by the time they fly out to check?
Last edited by Grease Monkey on Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Extremeweatherguy
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#45 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:55 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Extremeguy,

Do you expect a CAT2 by they fly out?


what?
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#46 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:56 pm

Hmmm.. Impressive

http://tinyurl.com/owssp

That's better :wink:
Last edited by Aquawind on Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#47 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:57 pm

Yep, Derek, and steering-level winds (all winds, in fact) are from the ESE, meaning it should be ashore within 24 hours. Chances of it becoming a TD or TS look slim at best.
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#48 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:57 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Extremeguy,

Do you expect a CAT2 by they fly out?


what?


Sorry I edited it. I need an extreme prediction, so I'm asking whether or not you think recon will find a CAT2 when they check.
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#49 Postby skysummit » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:58 pm

35kt winds...
http://tinyurl.com/qk74g
Last edited by skysummit on Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#50 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:58 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Extremeguy,

Do you expect a CAT2 by they fly out?


what?


Sorry I edited it. I need an extreme prediction, so I'm asking whether or not you think recon will find a CAT2 when they check.
lol. I can't say for sure, but I highly doubt it. :lol: A TD or TS is possible though.
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#51 Postby CajunMama » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:01 pm

Hey Aquawind.... http://www.tinyurl.com .... :wink: :D :wink: :D

just picking on ya!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#52 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:01 pm

The surface obs in mexico show at least what you would expect if you had a LLC. In satellite looks to be at least a cyclonic system as you say...Theres deep convection. In I expect a Bret like system so its not to out of the cards.
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Rainband

#53 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:02 pm

CajunMama wrote:Hey Aquawind.... http://www.tinyurl.com .... :wink: :D :wink: :D

just picking on ya!
I know my scroll works now :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#54 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:03 pm

Meanies..
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#55 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:03 pm

Looking at the latest satellite loop, I would say current motion is either N or NNW (away from land) and into the BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
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#56 Postby El Nino » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:05 pm

skysummit wrote:35kt winds...
http://tinyurl.com/qk74g


WHAT ??? :eek:
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Rainband

#57 Postby Rainband » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:05 pm

Aquawind wrote:Meanies..
:oops: :lol: :oops: :lol: It's when we don't pick on you that you have to worry Paul :wink:
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Derek Ortt

#58 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:05 pm

the cort max is moving to the WNW, and may not get far offshore

Only real chance is for a new center to form
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#59 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:05 pm

Rainband wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Meanies..
:oops: :lol: :oops: :lol: It's when we don't pick on you that you have to worry Paul :wink:


:eek:

:lol:
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#60 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 4:06 pm

Yeah I just saw it, but the wave is still blowing up so it may appear to be moving NW.
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