94L Invest Comments Thread #2

#41 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:33 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

So you're saying your scenario is keeping it weak then?

Extremeweatherguy · #42 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:36 pm

skysummit wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
My scenario would be for this to move up along the TX coast, move inland near Matagorda and then turn NNE and eventually NE once inland. This scenario would drop lots of rain across SE Texas, but unfortunately I think it is the most likely scenario right now.

So you're saying your scenario is keeping it weak then?

I think it may start weak, then gradually work itself into a moderate or strong TS and then make landfall as a strong TS/minimal Hurricane. Really though, it is WAY to early to tell, I am going to let it develop first before getting real confident in that scenario. That just seems like the most plausible scenario right now.

Johnny · #43 Postby **Johnny** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:42 pm

EWG, did JB say anything about the shear letting up anytime soon? From what I can tell, that's really the only thing going against this blob. This is a question for the pro mets also. Is shear the only thing keeping this blob from developing? If not, then what others factors are keeping it in check?

#44 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:45 pm

Remember last fall when the late season storms all developed in 20 knot shear and actually survived 30+ knot shear?

Extremeweatherguy · #45 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:46 pm

Johnny wrote:EWG, did JB say anything about the shear letting up anytime soon? From what I can tell, that's really the only thing going against this blob. This is a question for the pro mets also. Is shear the only thing keeping this blob from developing? If not, then what others factors are keeping it in check?

well we know that moist air is surrounding the system and that the SSTs are warm. As for the shear, the maps are showing it drop off fast. As for JB, he didn't mention it specifically today, but yesterday he said the shear should die down as a ridge builds into the north of the system and the trough splits leaving it behind. I think this is already happening, and if the shear maps are correct, then shear is already lessening.

BTW: JB also added today that he "hopes" we can have a good laugh about this all tomorrow (meaning 94L dies out), but at this point that looks unlikely.

HouTXmetro · #46 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:47 pm

I have never seen a systen in the GOM this impressive on satellite and not even be a TD.

#47 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:47 pm

Are there any plans to send a Hurricane Hunter into this blob?

Extremeweatherguy · #48 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:47 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I have never seen a systen in the GOM this impressive on satellite and not even be a TD.

same. This looks very good right now.

Extremeweatherguy · #49 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:48 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Are there any plans to send a Hurricane Hunter into this blob?

As of 11:30am...no. But recent development may lead the NHC to change their mind tonight or tomorrow.

Extremeweatherguy · #50 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:49 pm

latest satellite loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

If you put on the "fronts" overlay, you can see the trough is leaving it behind as we speak!

#51 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Are there any plans to send a Hurricane Hunter into this blob?

NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 30 JUN 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-030

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE.

No planned mission for 94L according to today's plan of the day.However tommorow's plan of the day can include a tasking for 94L but it's not a given.

HouTXmetro · #52 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:57 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:I have never seen a systen in the GOM this impressive on satellite and not even be a TD.
same. This looks very good right now.

Notice the new blow up of convection in the NE quadrant of circulation? Implications?

White Cap · #53 Postby **White Cap** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:01 pm

Is the NHC even remotely mentioning any concern over this area in the BOC?

#54 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:03 pm

They moved the Floater 2 to this area. They are watching it.

southerngale · #55 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:05 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:They moved the Floater 2 to this area. They are watching it.

Finally!

Thanks cyc, but EWG answered a few posts up.

#56 Postby **drezee** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:05 pm

Looks like ENE winds to the coast at the low levels

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:06 pm

Floater at 94L

Ok Kelly,I didn't see his post.

#58 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:13 pm

We need to look at history... take this for example...

TD Nine/Irene of 2005

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE
IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND
VIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z
AND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.

GIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
MAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS
NOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE
REACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Everyone needs to remember that we know very little about these systems or how they form. Sometimes, as in the case of Irene, it seems likely that we'll get something. Then poof. Other times, it's the other way around and something springs up out of nowhere.

I say this is definately worth watching and I hope that folks will keep an eye on it just as vigilantly as everything else. I trust the NHC to jump all over this the moment it looks dangerous. Right now they say it doesn't. Some of us think it does.

Realistically I think it's in the grey area where we just don't know if it's dangerous or not. Convential wisdom, i.e., NHC, says probably not.

Epsilon_Fan · #59 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:14 pm

the blob looks good and has a spin to it... if shear lessens something could have a chance unless it swings into E. Mexico

Thunder44 · #60 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:19 pm

The system has no low-level inflow and surface pressures are still high. It's not close to being a TD yet.

94L Invest Comments Thread #2

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