When do you evacuate?

[Tstormwatcher]

I live 20 miles from the coast and 30 feet above the Nuese river. it would have to be a Cat 4 to make me leave.

[jasons2k]

I live 65 miles from the coastline, a little closer the the bayline of Galveston bay. I'm nowhere near a surge zone. I live in a well-built house with extra reinforcements for the roof, etc.

On 9/21/05 at the 7pm advisory, Rita was a 165mph hurricane forecasted to make landfall as a Cat. 4 or 5 near Freeport. It would have still been a ~Cat 3+ when it reached us. I had made the decision then, if things had not changed significantly by the next morning, we were going to evacuate. It would not have been safe to stick around for Cat. 3 winds with all the trees we have in The Woodlands (or anywhere, really, for that matter).

Fortunately the forecast changed, so we stayed put.

People who say they would stay for any type of major hurricane, even a small Cat. 3, will be in for a rude awakening if they ever experience it...assuming they even survive. It amazes me that even after Katrina some people still have not learned the lesson.

[alicia-w]

we are in a cat 1 zone. we pretty much sit tight until it's a high two or three.

[beachbum_al]

Of course when I say I leave I do leave my house if the storm is a Cat 1 to a 3. I go to City Hall in Daphne where my husband works. He doesn't get to leave the area during a hurricane so if I can stay I do. I almost left when Dennis was headed this was as a strong 4. I decided that I would ride it out at City Hall like I did Ivan. Katrina I stayed in my home while David was at work. It was scary being home alone not knowing what was going on. Like I said in an earlier post I would stay for a hurricane but I have to think of my three girls and if it is looking like a direct hit and the governor is telling me to leave I am out of here. I am not going to put my girls lives in danger. Katrina taught everyone a lesson and those who lost their lives taught us everything and will in the future save other people's lives.

[yzerfan]

Mobile homes should evacuate for ANY storm that has any chance of becoming a hurricane of any intensity. Even a Category 1 would do major damage to a mobile home.

Depends on the age of the mobile home. A properly anchored mobile home built under the pretty tough post-Andrew wind regulations will handle 100-110mph winds surprisingly well. Pre-1994 homes will generally be leveled.

As for us, we're somewhat inland, 35-40 feet above msl, in a sturdy site-built home with a post-Opal roof, and we had all the trees that don't handle wind well whacked after Ivan, so it's going to take something scary-sounding to get us to evacuate.

[Stratusxpeye]

CAT 3+ Than I'm out. Up to cat 2 Ill stay im a few miles inland here about 30 miles so no concern at all about water just decreased wind. I fsomething was to hit as a cat 3 than I would leave. Im in a manufactured home that is certified supposebly up to 130mph sustained (Not sure if I'd like to be inside to find out) Been through 75mph so far with a little higher gusts and sometimes it was on the edge of scary so anything over 110+ im out.

[StrongWind]

A few points:

1. Wilma went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 24 hours.

2. Rita went from a 65 mph TS to a 165 mph Cat 5 within 36 hours.

3. Saffir-Simpson deals only with peak winds, not surge. There is no such thing as a "Cat 3 surge". Katrina and Rita proved that. It's the radius and extent of maximum winds that determines the surge, not the peak in any one quadrant of a hurricane. Katrina's "Cat 3 surge" was larger than Camille's "Cat 5 surge". Rita was basically a borderline 2-3 at landfall and produced a 15-20 foot surge.

4. Our ability to predict hurricane intensity has not improved significantly in the past several decades. The explosions of Wilma and Rita were not well-predicted.

5. You'll have to make your decision to evacuate 2-3 days before landfall, long before you really know how strong a hurricane might get when it hits. That's easily long enough for that moderate TS to become a Cat 3-4 hurricane before moving ashore.

Bottom line is that if you're in any surge zone you'd better be prepared to evacuate for ANY tropical cyclone, no matter how strong it is 4-5 days out. You won't be able to wait to see what the landfall intensity will be before having to make your decision to leave. Forecast intensities could be 1, 2, or 3 categories off 3-4 days away from landfall. So those of you that say you'll leave for a Cat 3 or stronger need to consider that you'll need to evacuate when that strong TS or Cat 1 is heading at you 2-3 days away, as it could easily be that Cat 3 at landfall - even though it's predicted to "only" be a Cat 1 or Cat 2.

All your points are true. Trouble is that there can be so much track drift 3-4 days out, let alone 4-5, that it's hard to tell by that. And, as NHC suggests, looking at the 'cone of destruction' rather than the little black line, at 3,4,5 days most of the state can be covered.

Fortunately, I don't live in a storm surge area. I do worry about inland flooding from a slow moving rain maker. Though I live in a 2-story and there is no way water would get that high in S. Fla unless Noah2 had an ark ready. I feel safe through a 3+ wind-wise. On the downside, a 2-story gives me worries about a strong cat 4 or a 5 winds. I might consider staying at work which happens to be a designated shelter, with b/u generator and everything. Though, I would be loath to leave my pets at home and there is no shelter for cars. Last year during Wilma, some employees who decided to shelter there had significant vehicular damage.

[corpusbreeze]

I go when the wife says " lets get the heck Out of here!"

[fci]

I live inland a good 10 miles but would evacuate when instructed to.
Don't even think a Cat 5 would mandate it but if told to, we are GONE!

Those of you poo-pooing a Cat 1, 2 or 3; you have probably not lived through one yet.
Wilma was a Cat 1, 2 or 3; depending on who you talk to; and it was pretty darn scary!

[Derek Ortt]

EVERYONE should evacuate when ordered to do so. Do not use people crying wolf as an excuse to stay. That nearly killed thousands at Key West last year in Wilma (5 miles south of its track and they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds and instea dof a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet)

[SouthFloridawx]

EVERYONE should evacuate when ordered to do so. D not use people crying wolf as an excuse to stay. That nearly killed thousands at Key West last year in Wilma (5 miles south of its track and they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds and instea dof a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet)

I agree... I will stay put or evac in accordance with my state/county government and always stay tuned into the National Hurricane Center or your local NWS for info regarding evacs.

5 miles south next time they might not be so lucky... that is a huge difference in surge.

[Ixolib]

EVERYONE should evacuate when ordered to do so. Do not use people crying wolf as an excuse to stay. That nearly killed thousands at Key West last year in Wilma (5 miles south of its track and they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds and instead of a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet)

Excellent point...

And the significance of this...

instead of a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet

...is much greater than the significance of this:

they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds

That rising sea water will cause much more death and destruction than the ~125mph winds.

[windycity]

Like Max Mayfield said,"run from the water,hide from the wind." We will go to a friends house 8 miles inland as we are in a evac. zone. My friends house has a hurricane room that was built to withstand 200+ winds.

[Opal storm]

EVERYONE should evacuate when ordered to do so. Do not use people crying wolf as an excuse to stay. That nearly killed thousands at Key West last year in Wilma (5 miles south of its track and they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds and instead of a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet)

Excellent point...

And the significance of this...

instead of a 5-10 foot surge, 15-20 feet

...is much greater than the significance of this:

they get the eyewall with the 125 m.p.h. winds

That rising sea water will cause much more death and destruction than the ~125mph winds.

Surge does cause a lot of destruction,but wind should NOT be downplayed.125mph winds will rip your roof off your house.

[Scorpion]

True, because in 125 mph winds people cannot just go on top of their roofs to escape the rising water.

[msbee]

I love this thread
Us poor folks on islands have nowhere to evacuate to!
We gotta grin and bear it!

[Ixolib]

Surge does cause a lot of destruction,but wind should NOT be downplayed.125mph winds will rip your roof off your house.

I don't mean to downplay the impact of wind. But, if I'm given a choice between a 40mph increase in wind (i.e. 85 or 125) compared to a 10 foot increase in water (i.e. 10 feet or 20 feet), I'll take the increase in wind any day!!

Granted, 125mph "can" rip the roof off you house. But 10 feet of water will surely and absolutely cause significant problems - both short term and long term.

[SouthFloridawx]

True, because in 125 mph winds people cannot just go on top of their roofs to escape the rising water.

I would imagine that you would not have a choice if the water was rising fast enough and you needed to get out of it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Living in Central Florida most storms that come our way our usually weakened to below major hurricane strength by the time they get here. So we don't really evacuate much even if a hurricane had 100 mph winds by the time it got to Sanford we still don't evacuate.

[x-y-no]

Well, my office is a couple of hundred feet west of Biscayne Blvd which is the evacuation zone boundary. I had no hesitation spending Katrina and Wilma here, but if a major were approaching I think I'd head down to my parents' house in South Miami.

In the years I was living aboard a boat, I always secured the boat and left if there was risk of anything worse than a TS. Some crazies would insist on staying with their boats, but not me.