NW Carribean

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Stormcenter
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#41 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:There is an outflow boundary currently racing off to the west from the Thunderstorm complex meaning there is no low level convergence taking place right now....this will not develop anytime soon....however if it persists we may see development.

Image


This is an old satellite image.

Well the one I initially saw was but now it's corrected.
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#42 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:38 pm

Nope its new I just checked. Anyway looks like this thing is really persisting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#43 Postby bigmoney755 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:44 pm

is this for the blob over cuba or honduras?
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#44 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:56 pm

Here is a better view of what I am talking about...
Image
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#45 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:05 pm

What exactly does the outflow boundary do?
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#46 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:10 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:What exactly does the outflow boundary do?


It shows us that winds are diverging at the surface which is the exact opposite of what is needed for development, you would want to have convergence at the surface to see development take place.

Here is a simple model showing winds at different levels. This is what needs to occur for tropical development.

(Upper level) :larrow: :rarrow:
(Mid levels) :uarrow: :uarrow:
(Lower level) :rarrow: :larrow:
Last edited by Ivanhater on Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#47 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:12 pm

Oh I get it.
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#48 Postby no advance » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:13 pm

No chance of develpment.
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#49 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:15 pm

Hey at least give this a chance, just because it isn't developing now doesn't mean it will never develop.
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#50 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:20 pm

446
ABNT20 KNHC 062108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND FLORIDA ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN
HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
-
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Nada. :)
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#51 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:22 pm

So I guess this does mean that we have nothing to worry about in the tropics, okay so now we can just relax for awhile until August.
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#52 Postby no advance » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:26 pm

NE Gulf Water temp in the gulf are incredibly hot. Talkin Tropic Zack said that he could not believe how hot below the surface it was near the keys. If we get any sort of convection it could pop.
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#53 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:26 pm

Folks,the word here is patience.Time goes by fast and August is around the corner and for sure we will be very busy tracking one system after another that it will become tired for some. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#54 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:29 pm

no advance wrote:No chance of develpment.


In the tropics "everything" has a chance as long as it's persistant and over 80ish waters. IMO :D
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#55 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:29 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:So I guess this does mean that we have nothing to worry about in the tropics, okay so now we can just relax for awhile until August.


Quiet one day, insanely active the next...welcome to the world of the tropics....you just never know :D
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#56 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:31 pm

12z CMC develops this wave into a closed low over the BOC and heads it toward the Mex/TX border area...........


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#57 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:35 pm

Then again the CMC isn't really useful if you think about it.
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#58 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:37 pm

The cmc is forecasting energy crossing over in getting sucked between the western Gulf low...With wave moving into just west of the Yucatan. Which will force a low pressure are to develop.

I would really watch that system off florida. There appears to be a MLC just off Miami moving northeastward.
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#59 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

This thing continues to blowup! Look! Now gray colors are showing up on SAT. :eek:
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#60 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Jul 06, 2006 4:42 pm

Thats the most intense I have seen of any blob convection since Alberto :eek:
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