Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[cycloneye]

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WTPZ24 KNHC 120207
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





WTPZ44 KNHC 120206
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO BE DESIGNATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT
AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AT
12/00Z SHIPS A8AL6 AND SIWB REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND
24 KT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHIP SIWB ALSO REPORTED 11 FT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. THERE MAY BE SOME JUMPING
AROUND OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT REFORMS NEAR ANY NEW CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BEFORE
FINALLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN
COAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS TAKING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAM
MODELS FAVOR A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN
130-150W LONGITUDE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE
GFS-GFDL-UKMET SOLUTION.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION AND ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDRANCES
TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEAR TO BE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
DISTURBANCE AND MUCH COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
OVER AFTER 72 HOURS. IF MORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE INNER-
CORE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONGER BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER IN 72 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE...A PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ISSUED AS LONG AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.4N 102.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




Forecast to be a hurricane.

[whereverwx]

Wow, things are heating up over there, aren't they.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ34 KNHC 120207
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 260
MILES...415 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD OUTER RAINBANDS ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE MEXICAN RIVIERA FROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO
ZIHUATANEJO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...14.4 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[CrazyC83]

Like big brother Bud, I think Carlotta will be a hurricane - within 24 hours. I smell rapid intensification here too.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Like with Bud, I am going high on the predictions. Another solid storm in the Pacific.

Current - 14.4/102.8 - 1006mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 15.0/104.9 - 999mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 15.6/107.4 - 988mb - 75mph
36 hrs - 16.4/110.0 - 972mb - 90mph
48 hrs - 17.8/111.4 - 965mb - 105mph
60 hrs - 18.3/113.8 - 966mb - 110mph
72 hrs - 18.7/116.1 - 973mb - 90mph
96 hrs - 19.3/121.5 - 985mb - 65mph
120 hrs - 20.8/125.7 - 995mb - 45mph

[MGC]

I'm thinking that TD-4E is going to be a significant Tropical Cyclone. Has the satellite signature of a big one in the making......MGC

[CrazyC83]

My estimate chance of this becoming:

Tropical Storm - >95%
Hurricane - 70%
Major Hurricane - 40%
Category 4 Hurricane - 20%
Category 5 Hurricane - 5%

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

That looks like Carlotta to me!

Tropical Storm - 99%
Hurricane - 90%
Major Hurricane - 60%
Cat-5 - 10%

[HURAKAN]

Looks like a CDO is trying to develop. It should look better this morning!!

[Cyclenall]

The first % chance of this becoming on TD4-E by Cyclenall:

Tropical Storm: 98%
Hurricane: 68%
Major Hurricane: 26%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

This will be a TS in no time at all. Banding features are there already (the NHC said something like that as well) and deep convection is right at the center currently. Wow, great catch-up the East Pacific is making now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big blow up of convection over the center...With inflow inflow/outflow look very good at this time...I say 45 knots right now.

[Cyclenall]

Big blow up of convection over the center...With inflow inflow/outflow look very good at this time...I say 45 knots right now.

I think the MJO is over the East Pacific right now . It looks really good for a depression I might say. I should see Carlotta when I wake up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope the Eastern Pacific pops out 5 more named storms before August. I hope it kicks the Atlantics back side.

[Cyclenall]

I hope the Eastern Pacific pops out 5 more named storms before August.

If we get a wave train going then that may be possible.

[Mike Doran]

Fujiwara won't know what to do with me.

[RattleMan]

NRL says 04E.CARLOTTA! Looks like we have it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahooo pay backs a B#$$ this year for the Atlatnic for beating the Eastern Pacific last year.

[P.K.]

12/0545 UTC 14.5N 103.1W T2.0/2.0 04E -- East Pacific Ocean

[P.K.]

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR
THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGESTING THE BURST IS TURNING INTO A BANDING FEATURE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT
UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA AND INCREASING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE PLACE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER PROVIDING WEAK INITIAL AND
FORECAST SHEAR VALUES. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES SUGGEST THERE
IS ABOUT A 40-55% CHANCE OF THE INTENSITY INCREASING BY AT LEAST 25
KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR... WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
AND IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
INDICATE CARLOTTA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BEYOND THEN IS LIKELY UNTIL SSTS DECREASE
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THIS DIMINISHING EFFECT IS REFLECTED IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE BUD TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0119 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A
0357 UTC TRMM WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE... WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS... 285/10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TWO TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE EPAC WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING BUD AT THE EXPENSE
OF CARLOTTA AND VICE-VERSA. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE
SAME HOWEVER AS A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MEXICO IS
LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INDUCING A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONES. A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WEAKENS IN THE
EPAC...THOUGH MODELS NOW TEND TO KEEP THE HIGH A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BEING A LITTLE NORTH OF CONU.

A DISTANT BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Jim Cantore]

It's been upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlotta now.